The 2021 National Football League regular season is nearly upon us, and the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs are looking to repeat in the division. Below, we analyze the AFC West and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
The AFC West is composed of the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers.
The Chiefs are the heavy favorites to repeat as division champs. They have won each of the past five AFC West Division crowns posting a combined regular-season record of 60-20 during the impressive run.
The Chargers saw QB Justin Herbert step in last season and take control of the offense. While a late four-game win streak wasn’t enough to save the job of head coach Anthony Lynn, there is still plenty of like about the Bolts.
The Broncos also made some big offseason moves to put themselves in position to challenge for the division title. They won five straight division titles from 2011-15 prior to the run of the Chiefs.
The Chargers haven’t won the West since 2009, while the Raiders have the longest drought in the division last winning the title in 2002.
Odds to win AFC West
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:40 a.m. ET.
- Chiefs: -319 (bet $319 to win $100)
- Chargers: +450 (bet $100 to win $450)
- Broncos: +550 (bet $100 to win $550)
- Raiders: +1500 (bet $100 to win $1,500)
The Chiefs are the only team without plus-money odds. The Chargers, Broncos and Raiders each return more money than your original bet, should they win the division. The Raiders are the biggest long shot odds in the AFC West with +1500 odds representing an implied win probability of 6.25%.
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AFC West picks and predictions
The CHIEFS (-319) aren’t a great value, but they’re going to be the AFC West Division winners barring a major, major disaster and/or injuries to key personnel.
If you’re going to roll the dice on one of the underdogs in the division, take a look at the BRONCOS (+550). They added QB Teddy Bridgewater to push QB Drew Lock under center. More importantly, the Broncos have some of the best wide receivers in the division with KJ Hamler, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton leading the way.
The Broncos have a little more stability and a more impressive offense to give the Chiefs a run for their money.
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The best value is on the Broncos, while the Chiefs are the biggest certainty. It’s not recommended to tie up a lot of money into a singular bet with such little return. However, if you can drop Kansas City into a multi-team futures parlay, that’s your best wager.
There is no reason to waste any of your hard-earned money on the Chargers or Raiders. The Raiders have some nice pieces, but their defense is still a work in progress, and they’ll struggle to hold the opposition down.
I don’t think the Chargers are quite there yet. Herbert is impressive, but the Bolts have a new head coach in Brandon Staley, and it might take him a little while to find his sea legs in a rough and tumble division.
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