The AFC South Division is setting up for a rather competitive race in 2021, at least at the top of the standings. Below, we analyze the odds to win the AFC South and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
The AFC South is composed of the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans.
The Titans made the biggest splash during the offseason by acquiring former All-Pro WR Julio Jones from the Atlanta Falcons in a trade to bolster their receiving corps. He joins an already talented and star-studded offense that includes WR A.J. Brown and RB Derrick Henry.
Not only are the fans in Tennessee thinking of the AFC South Division title, but they’re thinking Super Bowl, too.
The Colts also made a big move during the offseason in adding QB Carson Wentz via trade with the Philadelphia Eagles, but a foot injury early in training camp has clouded his immediate future, and therefore makes the Colts a little less appealing.
In the bottom half of the division, hope springs eternal in Jacksonville, and the Jags are pinning their hopes on two guys with championship experience. QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne won a lot in college at Clemson, and they were each first-round picks by the team hopeful of a resurgence.
Meanwhile, the Texans are a mess, and there is so much uncertainty with that organization, there is no need to waste a red cent on them.
Odds to win AFC South
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday, Aug. 19.
- Titans: -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Colts: +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Jaguars: +900 (bet $100 to win $900)
- Texans: +3000 (bet $100 to win $3,000)
The Titans are the slight favorites in this two-horse race and the only team without plus-money odds.
The Colts, Jaguars and Texans each return more money than your original bet, should they win a division crown. The Texans have the highest long-shot odds in the AFC South with +3000 odds representing an implied win probability of 3.23%.
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AFC South picks and predictions
The TITANS (-145) are the favorites, and they’re the slam-dunk play in this division. The Colts (+140) are impressive on paper, but their hopes to win the AFC South depend on the health of Wentz. He has already gone down, and the fragile quarterback makes them the much, much riskier play.
Tennessee has an amazing offense with Henry, Brown and Jones forming the best triumvirate in the division among skill position players, and it’s not even close. The only concern about the Titans might be on the defensive side of the ball, but no one is challenging them to win this division if everyone can stay healthy. Not even the Colts.
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While I am a little dubious head coach Urban Meyer can step into the pro game and work his magic like he did at the college level, I think the JAGUARS (+900) are at least worthy of a small-unit play at this price. You could multiply your money nine times if Lawrence, Etienne and company exceed expectations and shock the world.
As far as the Texans are concerned, even at +3000, they’re a bit underpriced. They’re a much better bet to have the worst record in the NFL, rather than challenge for a division title.
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