We’re heading down the stretch of the preseason and hurtling toward Week 1 of the 2021 NFL regular season. Below, we analyze the AFC East and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
The AFC East is composed of the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and New York Jets.
The Patriots held a monopoly on the division from 2009-19, winning 11 consecutive titles before the Buffalo Bills rose to the top of the standings in 2020. It was Buffalo’s first division crown since the 1995 season.
The Bills were also the first team to win the AFC East since 2008, when the Miami Dolphins rattled off an 11-5 record to take the top spot. The Jets hold the longest drought in the division, last winning the AFC East in 2002.
Odds to win AFC East
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:50 a.m. ET.
- Bills: -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Patriots: +280 (bet $100 to win $280)
- Dolphins: +380 (bet $100 to win $380)
- Jets: +2000 (bet $100 to win $2,000)
The Bills are the only team in the division that will cost you more money than you can make as they’re rather moderate favorites. The others are all plus-money odds, which means more return than your original bet. The Jets are the biggest long-shot odds in the AFC East with +2000 odds representing an implied win probability of 4.76%.
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AFC East picks and predictions
The Bills are the favorites to repeat as division champs, an accomplishment they haven’t duplicated since winning four straight division crowns from 1988-91.
While I am a big fan of the Bills offense, led by MVP candidate QB Josh Allen and big-play downfield threat WR Stefon Diggs, their run game is a little concerning to me. RBs Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are serviceable but not great.
I think the best bang for your buck is a play on the PATRIOTS (+280). Yes, it was a tough transition from the Tom Brady era to the first season with QB Cam Newton at the helm. But Newton also lacked bona fide NFL-caliber weapons at key skill positions.
The Pats upgraded at the tight end position with both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith bolstering the spot. New England loves to use a TE-heavy offense, and those two give them their best group since TEs Rob Gronkowski and the late Aaron Hernandez. You didn’t expect head coach Bill Belichick to just stand pat, did you?
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I wouldn’t hesitate to make a small-unit wager on the Bills as I think they have a very good chance to grind out another AFC East title.
The Dolphins have some very nice pieces in place to make this a three-horse race. QB Tua Tagovailoa begins his first full season under center in South Florida, and if the skill position players can stay on the field and avoid injuries, head coach Brian Flores‘ team could be a lot of fun to watch.
Still, the value is in the Patriots. Belichick is a coaching legend, the Patriots made key offseason additions and rookie QB Mac Jones is a talent waiting in the wings just in case Newton struggles or suffers an injury. Depth, coaching and balance could win the day.
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