This, for many, is the most fun part of the NFL year.
The 2023 NFL Draft is almost here, starting with Day 1 kicking off Thursday in Kansas City. Much like the Super Bowl, this affair is an event made for prop bets. I am going to look at one such bet here.
Below, I analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s draft odds for NFL prospects and tab who will be the first wide receiver drafted — just part of SportsbookWire’s many expert picks and predictions among our NFL best bets.
After years of meteoric receiver drafts, the 2023 group is a bit of a letdown. There are not many big receivers in this draft. The only true big man, Quentin Johnston (TCU), has questions about his hands.
While the little man will reign this season, which one will be the question still to be answered.
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State) put aside his missed 2022 and get credit for an incredible 2021? Will Josh Downs get propped up after being able to succeed with two different quarterbacks at North Carolina?
All the receivers in the 2023 NFL Draft have issues, which we need to sort through before deciding on which one is best for our favorite team. All we know is that they’ll all be drafted.
So, now we must decide which one goes first Thursday.
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NFL odds: First wide receiver drafted
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 1 a.m. ET
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: -430 (bet $430 to win $100)
- Zay Flowers: +650 (bet $100 to win $650)
- Jordan Addison: +1000 (Bet $100 to win $1,000)
- Quentin Johnston: +1100 (Bet $100 to win $1,100)
- Jalin Hyatt: +2900 (Bet $100 to win $2900)
- Josh Downs: +10000 (Bet $100 to win $10,000)
- Kayshon Boutte: +10000 (Bet $100 to win $10,000)
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NFL Draft: Best bets
The pick – JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA (-430)
Despite only playing 3 games in 2022 due to a nagging hamstring injury, Smith-Njigba is still the consensus No. 1 receiver on the board in this draft.
After an incredible Rose Bowl the previous season as a sophomore with 15 catches for 3 TDs and an FBS bowl record-347 receiving yards against Utah, some felt he would be the top receiver in the 2023 draft even if he didn’t play another college game. Smith-Njigba basically took them at their word and opted to sit out a majority of the season — including skipping Ohio State’s national semifinal game — and train for the NFL.
While do so may seem a bit selfish, this is becoming the new normal for many elite players. If they suffer any form of injury, instead of coming back, the choice has become to milk the injury out and get ready for the next level. No one can blame them with so much money at stake.
This is exactly what JSN did, and it will likely pay off for him with a top-15 to 20 draft selection Thursday.
Although -430 is a large price to pay, the NFL Draft is one arena in which the long shot doesn’t normally pay off. It’s usually safe to bet on the favorite, which is what I would do here.
Worth a shot – ZAY FLOWERS (+650)
While Smith-Njigba is the obvious choice, Flowers would be the only other wideout worth making a small wager on.
Not only do many teams love the Boston College product, but there is talk of some of those teams wanting to trade up to acquire him.
If a team like the Kansas City Chiefs, who has been linked to him, decides to make a move up, Flowers could go earlier than many think possible.
He’s already had a private workout — in Texas — with Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes. If Mahomes gives the green light, it could just be a matter of how high the Chiefs are willing to move up to get Flowers.
A trade into the top 20 could be needed and this could also mean Flowers coming off the board ahead of any other receiver. Kansas City currently has the last pick in the 1st round.
While it would be a little surprising, Flowers is the one receiver, other than Smith-Njigba, to have a chance to be the first wideout selected in this draft.
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Long shot – JOSH DOWNS (+10000)
This is a 2-horse race between Smith-Njigba and Flowers on who will be the first WR drafted … including Flowers in the race is even a bit hopeful
But if you want to take a long shot, Downs might be your guy at +10000. Small and shifty, Downs was an elite receiver at UNC with QBs Sam Howell (drafted last summer in the 5th round by the Washington Commanders) and Drake Maye, who threw for 4,321 yards and 38 TDs last season as a sophomore.
Downs is a pure slot receiver, but he can be a high-volume receiver for the right team.
It’s not likely that he will go first at the WR position, but as a long shot, he is the only play worth making.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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