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In Week 16, favorites went 12-4 straight up (SU) for a second consecutive week. The Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders were the home underdogs to win outright.
The Panthers (+5.5) scored a 36-30 OT win over the Arizona Cardinals, the Cowboys (+4) upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-24 Monday night, the Dolphins (+2) topped the San Francisco 49ers 29-17 and the Commanders (+4) won 36-33 in a miraculous finish against the Philadelphia Eagles. Luckily, we weren’t bitten by any of those upsets in our survivor picks.
It’s rather amazing, but for the third consecutive week nobody was eliminated from the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool contest. Fifteen entries — out of 10,357 — remain, hoping to win the $5,000 prize.
Breaking down the Week 16 selections, 8 advanced with the Green Bay Packers (34-0 MNF win vs. New Orleans Saints), 2 moved on with the Cincinnati Bengals (24-6 home win vs. the Cleveland Browns), 2 picked the Los Angeles Rams (19-9 victory at the New York Jets), 2 had the Buffalo Bills (24-21 home win vs. New England Patriots) and 1 survived with the Atlanta Falcons (34-7 home win vs. the New York Giants).
We used the Bills for our top option in Week 16, and sweated it out. The Patriots jumped out to a 14-0 lead early in the second quarter and the Bills looked a little disheveled. For the first time in 9 games, Buffalo’s offense failed to score at least 30 points, which would have been an NFL record. But Buffalo rallied for the unimpressive 24-21 win despite being a 14-point favorite.
Our second option was the Packers, who breezed by the Saints 34-0 also as 14-point favorites. The Saints are a mess. Rookie QB Spencer Rattler (153 passing yards, 0 TD, 1 INT) was rattled without veteran WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (chest) and RB Alvin Kamara (groin) available in the pass game.
The Week 17 schedule has 4 teams favored by 8 or more points, all on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. The 4 are the Bills (-10 vs. Jets), the Buccaneers (-8 vs. the Panthers), the Eagles (-9.5 vs. the Cowboys) and the Indianapolis Colts (-8 at the New York Giants).
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The pick: Indianapolis Colts
Who they play: At New York Giants – Sunday, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:03 p.m. ET.
- Line: Colts -8 / Moneyline (ML): Colts -400 | Giants +310
The Colts (7-8) visit the Giants (2-13), and I seriously have my concerns with this pick. It’s never a good idea to back a road team, but at this late juncture of the season, especially since none of the other heavy favorites are available after I used them earlier in the season, Indianapolis it is!
The forecast calls for temperatures around 50 degrees with a 70 percent chance of rain showers, perhaps heavy at times, while the winds swirl at 10-12 mph. That’s bad news for the passing and kicking games, but with QB Anthony Richardson under center for Indy, less passing is a good thing. He has been very inaccurate through the air, but a menace running the ball.
In addition, Colts RB Jonathan Taylor put on a clinic against the Tennessee Titans in Week 16, racking up 218 rushing yards with 3 TDs, while Richardson added 70 rushing yards with a score — he threw 1 TD, too.
The Giants were horrific in a 34-7 loss in Atlanta against rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. making his first NFL start. Really, the rookie didn’t do a whole lot, but Giants QB Drew Lock was victimized for a pair of pick-sixes. Lock’s miscues could be costly against a Colts team fighting for their playoff lives.
INDIANAPOLIS IS MY FAVORITE SURVIVOR PLAY OF WEEK 17.
FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
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No. 2 option: LA Rams
Who they play: Home vs. Arizona Cardinals – Saturday, 8 p.m. (NFL Network)
- Line: Rams -6.5 / ML: Rams -275 | Cardinals +225
The Los Angeles Rams (9-6) are fighting for the top spot in the NFC West, and they’re facing a Cardinals (7-8) team which was eliminated from playoff contention with a 36-30 OT loss in Carolina in Week 16. It remains to be seen how motivated the Cardinals will be with nothing left to play for but pride.
In addition, Arizona lost RB James Conner to a knee injury in the second half. He had 117 rushing yards and was on his way to a huge day before the injury. After being eliminated, does Arizona push him to play or rest him the rest of the way out?
While all of that makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside, keep in mind that the Cardinals dominated the Rams 41-10 in the first meeting in Glendale back on Sept. 15. Of course, that seems like many moons ago. LA won 26-9 in last season’s meeting at SoFi Stadium, covering a 7.5-point number, and you can expect a similar result here.
2024 survivor game log
NO. 1 OPTION
Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Week 2: LOSS – Falcons 22, Eagles 21
Week 3: LOSS – Panthers 36, Raiders 22
Week 4: WIN – 49ers 30, Patriots 13
Week 5: LOSS – Giants 29, Seahawks 20
Week 6: WIN – Eagles 20, Browns 16
Week 7: WIN – Commanders 40, Panthers 7
Week 8: LOSS – Browns 29, Ravens 24
Week 9: WIN – Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 24 (OT)
Week 10: WIN – Vikings 12, Jaguars 7
Week 11: WIN – Lions 52, Jaguars 6
Week 12: LOSS – Titans 32, Texans 27
Week 13: WIN – Broncos 41, Browns 32
Week 14: WIN – Buccaneers 28, Raiders 13
Week 15: WIN – Cardinals 30, Patriots 17
Week 16: WIN – Bills 24, Patriots 21
NO. 2 OPTION
Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10
Week 2: WIN – Chargers 26, Panthers 3
Week 3: LOSS – Giants 21, Browns 15
Week 4: WIN – Cowboys 20, Giants 15
Week 5: WIN – Commanders 34, Browns 13
Week 6: WIN – Falcons 38, Panthers 20
Week 7: WIN – Bills 34, Titans 10
Week 8: WIN – Lions 52, Titans 14
Week 9: WIN – Eagles 28, Jaguars 23
Week 10: WIN – Chargers 27, Titans 17
Week 11: WIN – Texans 34, Cowboys 10
Week 12: WIN – Chiefs 30, Panthers 27
Week 13: WIN – Buccaneers 26, Panthers 23 (OT)
Week 14: WIN – Steelers 27, Browns 14
Week 15: WIN – Ravens 35, Giants 14
Week 16: WIN – Packers 34, Saints 0
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