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Four underdogs won outright in Week 12 of the NFL regular season. Three of them — Cleveland Browns (+3.5 vs. Pittsburgh), Dallas Cowboys (+10.5 at Washington) and Tennessee Titans. (+8 at Houston) — were underdogs of 3.5 or more points.
The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs each improved to 10-1. The Lions won 24-6 at Indy, while the Chiefs bounced back after a Week 11 loss at the Buffalo Bills with a 30-27 escape at the suddenly dangerous Carolina Panthers.
Just 16 entries — of 10,357 — remain in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool contest, hoping to win the $5,000 prize after 10 were bumped off in Week 12.
We were bitten by the Titans as we selected the Houston Texans with our No. 1 option last week. Our second option survived with the Chiefs, although it was tied late in the fourth quarter. It took a Spencer Shrader field goal as time expired to get us the W.
Looking ahead to Week 13, we have 3 Thursday games for the Thanksgiving holiday, including the Lions, a 9.5-point home favorite vs. the Chicago Bears. On Friday, the Chiefs are favored by 13 points at home against the Las Vegas Raiders.
On the Sunday slate, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6 at Panthers, 4:05 p.m. ET) and Bills (-7 at home vs. the San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m. ET) are the largest favorites, while the Denver Broncos are favored by 5.5 points over the visiting Browns Monday.
Follow the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.
– All games Sunday and ET unless noted
The pick: Denver Broncos
Who they play: Home vs. Cleveland Browns – 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:31 p.m. ET.
- Line: Broncos -5.5 / Moneyline (ML): Broncos -250 | Browns +200
The Broncos (7-5) welcome the Browns (3-8) to Empower Field at Mile High Monday night.
We were reminded, yet again, that nothing is a sure thing, as the first-place Steelers left Cleveland with a loss last Thursday in the snow, even though the Browns entered with just 2 wins on the season.
So, there is always risk, but we’re banking on the Browns not being able to piece together back-to-back wins. It hasn’t happened at any point this season for Cleveland.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have dominated the all-time series vs. the Browns 25-7, including 3-0 in the playoffs. Over the last 15 meetings since 1991, Denver has won 13 of the past 15.
Cleveland did win 17-16 in Denver Dec. 15, 2018. That win was with QB Baker Mayfield hitting WR Antonio Callaway with the go-ahead score early in the fourth quarter. WR Breshad Perriman also had a score in that game for the Browns as they bested QB Case Keenum and the Broncos.
So, yeah, it’s been a while since the Browns have beaten the Broncos in Denver. The personnel is completely different on both sides, and Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix looks totally legit for the home side.
DENVER IS MY FAVORITE SURVIVOR PLAY OF WEEK 13.
FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
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No. 2 option: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Who they play: At Carolina Panthers – 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
- Line: Buccaneers -6 / ML: Buccaneers -275 | Panthers +210
The Buccaneers (5-6) enter with a losing record and they’re on the road. That’s the risk. But, for our second option, we’ve already used the Bills and Chiefs, the 2 largest favorites on the board.
Other teams we considered were the Commanders and Texans, but we’ve used each of them since Week 7, too. By this time, finding an attractive team you’ve yet to use is quite difficult.
We’ll play against the Panthers, but they’ve won 2 of the past 3 games, and QB Bryce Young led Carolina to bumping off QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Mayfield and the Bucs beat the Panthers 9-0 last season in Charlotte, so expect this to be a tight contest.
2024 survivor game log
NO. 1 OPTION
Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Week 2: LOSS – Falcons 22, Eagles 21
Week 3: LOSS – Panthers 36, Raiders 22
Week 4: WIN – 49ers 30, Patriots 13
Week 5: LOSS – Giants 29, Seahawks 20
Week 6: WIN – Eagles 20, Browns 16
Week 7: WIN – Commanders 40, Panthers 7
Week 8: LOSS – Browns 29, Ravens 24
Week 9: WIN – Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 24 (OT)
Week 10: WIN – Vikings 12, Jaguars 7
Week 11: WIN – Lions 52, Jaguars 6
Week 12: LOSS – Titans 32, Texans 27
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NO. 2 OPTION
Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10
Week 2: WIN – Chargers 26, Panthers 3
Week 3: LOSS – Giants 21, Browns 15
Week 4: WIN – Cowboys 20, Giants 15
Week 5: WIN – Commanders 34, Browns 13
Week 6: WIN – Falcons 38, Panthers 20
Week 7: WIN – Bills 34, Titans 10
Week 8: WIN – Lions 52, Titans 14
Week 9: WIN – Eagles 28, Jaguars 23
Week 10: WIN – Chargers 27, Titans 17
Week 11: WIN – Texans 34, Cowboys 10
Week 12: WIN – Chiefs 30, Panthers 27
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