We’re 25% of the way through the college football season. It doesn’t feel like a lot, but the season is moving fast.
That means it’s time for some overreactions. We’re at an interesting point in the year when it comes to analysis. We have ample data points to make real conclusions, but the majority of teams are far from a finished project.
There’s a lot we think we know that will turn out to be completely wrong come November. But that shouldn’t deter us from jumping to conclusions and overreactions.
Here, we’ll look at five overreactions that can be made after LSU’s first four games. There was a lot we didn’t know about LSU entering the year, but the first month of the season told us a lot about this team.
Of course, it brought some more questions too, especially with the key injuries to [autotag]Harold Perkins Jr.[/autotag], [autotag]John Emery Jr.[/autotag] and [autotag]Jacobian Guillory[/autotag] creating uncertainty at some positions.
Here are five overreactions after LSU’s first four games.
LSU can’t run the ball
LSU made a living on explosive runs but the 2024 lacks the same firepower. Most of that is due to the loss of [autotag]Jayden Daniels[/autotag]’ rushing ability. He was one of the most elusive players in college football — an explosive play waiting to happen.
LSU’s struggled to create the same plays without him. With a running back-centric approach, LSU’s run game is off to an inconsistent start.
LSU had just seven successful runs against USC for a success rate of 27%. Against Nicholls, that total increased to eight.
The last two weeks have shown some improvement with Caden Durham’s performance against South Carolina while [autotag]Kaleb Jackson[/autotag] and [autotag]Josh Williams[/autotag] both averaged over four yards per carry against UCLA.
LSU’s ground game was serviceable against UCLA, but there was only one run of 10+ yards. That explosiveness element still isn’t there. On the year, LSU ranks 27th in explosive run rate.
It’s understandable LSU would take a step back in this department without Daniels, but consistency is needed if LSU wants to compete for a spot in the 12-team playoff.
The secondary is too young
LSU is relying on young players across the defense, but especially in the secondary.
At corner, [autotag]Ashton Stamps[/autotag] is a true sophomore. [autotag]JK Johnson[/autotag] is a veteran by age but has just one year of real experience and it was at Ohio State in 2022. Next up at corner is [autotag]PJ Woodland[/autotag], a true freshman.
[autotag]Zy Alexander[/autotag] offers a veteran presence, but he’s been in and out of the lineup with injury issues.
USC took advantage of this group in LSU’s week one loss. LSU has gotten away with facing lesser passing offenses the last three weeks, but the Tigers will see high-powered attacks in SEC play.
It’s a talented bunch, but it’s fair to ask if this secondary is ready to compete at the highest level.
Garrett Nussmeier can win the Heisman
Four games in, Nussmeier ranks second in the FBS with 13 touchdowns and seventh with 1,247 yards. He’s shown up in big moments when LSU needed it against South Carolina and USC.
He’s not quite in the Heisman conversation, but his numbers are good enough to make a run if the opportunity presents itself. Last year, it took Daniels some time to build his campaign before emerging as a clear favorite.
Nussmeier will get a chance for a signature win against Ole Miss in a few weeks. If he puts up gaudy numbers there, Nussmeier’s name could start being tossed out there.
LSU’s defensive tackle room is in a good spot
Before the year, Guillory was considered a “can’t lose” player for LSU. Well, the Tigers lost him for the year after an injury in week two.
LSU did its best to build up the defensive tackle room over the summer, but questions circled. Guillory was the only returning DT with LSU experience.
Luckily for the Tigers, depth is emerging now. This room is not the problem many thought it would be.
True freshmen Dominick McKinley and Ahmad Breaux both look ready to contribute, and Wisconsin transfer Gio Paez is playing competent football under the tutelage of defensive line coach Bo Davis.
There’s also Jay’Viar Suggs, who made the most of his limited action against UCLA.
LSU should be cautiously optimistic about this group moving forward.
Whit Weeks will save the defense
Without Perkins, there are questions about LSU’s linebacker core. Perkins was a playmaker and had rare speed and athleticism for the position.
Now, LSU will count on Whit Weeks to replace that production. Weeks provides some of that versatility that Perkins did. He’s athletic enough to drop into coverage or come after the quarterback. He’s still a young player, but he’s showing All-SEC flashes.
LSU DC Blake Baker needs to make the most of Weeks if this LSU defense is going to figure it out.
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