Tag: which quarterback should I draft

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Quarterbacks

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 QBs change from year to year.

The elite quarterbacks of the NFL tend to be the most consistent players with Top-10 play for more than one season. With just 32 starting quarterbacks, the group is already limited and those at the top tend to stay at the top. Your fantasy draft will reflect how much more consistently great the top quarterbacks are and how highly they are rightfully valued.

They are the highest scoring player on your fantasy team. It pays to take that advantage to its optimal height with an early quarterback.

Also see: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end

Last year saw Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts repeat their Top-3 finish to 2022, and you’ll almost always see them as the first two quarterbacks drafted this summer. Rightfully so. There were an unusually high number of injuries to the Top-10 from 2022 and that impacted the position.

Chance of repeating Top-10 = 55%

Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence are stringing together Top-10 seasons, and either could repeat again just as easily. Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, and Justin Herbert all had injuries in 2023 and they are all dinged this summer because of it.  Lamar Jackson gets plenty of love  after the new system seemed to greatly enhance his production. Brock Purdy and Jordan Love were newcomers to the Top-10 and most drafters are not quite ready to buy into them, making them a deeper pick that may pay off handsomely if they can repeat.

Even year serves up the annual first times like Justin Fields and Geno Smith from 2022, but they usually fade back. There are reason to expect more of the same from Purdy and Love. Given the incidence of quarterback injury last year, shagging that second quarterback should be done sooner than later. And grabbing two Top-10 quarterbacks may seem expensive, but it solidifies your highest scoring position.

Fantasy Football Consistency Rankings – Quarterbacks

It’s not how many points, but how often can a quarterback help your fantasy team win.

This ranking considers quarterbacks that started at least 11 games. Fantasy points were derived using one point per 20 yards passed or 10 yards rushed, six-point touchdowns rushed and four-point passed. There are not a lot of surprises since there are only 32 starting quarterbacks, and it is notable even when there isn’t a dramatic difference between quarterbacks.

Consistency is more important in head-to-head fantasy leagues where weekly wins and losses translate into the playoffs.

See Also:  Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends

Quarterback Consistency

Quarterback 25 Pt GMS GMS  25 Pts 300 YD 2 TD
Jalen Hurts 71% 17 12 4 14
Josh Allen 65% 17 11 5 16
Lamar Jackson 50% 16 8 3 8
Dak Prescott 47% 17 8 5 12
Brock Purdy 44% 16 7 5 10
Joshua Dobbs 38% 13 5 0 7
Justin Fields 38% 13 5 1 6
Justin Herbert 38% 13 5 3 8
Jordan Love 35% 17 6 2 13
Jared Goff 29% 17 5 5 10
C.J. Stroud 27% 15 4 6 9
Desmond Ridder 27% 15 4 3 5
Trevor Lawrence 25% 16 4 2 7
Sam Howell 24% 17 4 5 8
Tua Tagovailoa 24% 17 4 5 8
Geno Smith 20% 15 3 4 7
Matthew Stafford 20% 15 3 5 6
Patrick Mahomes 19% 16 3 4 9
Baker Mayfield 12% 17 2 3 10
Derek Carr 12% 17 2 6 8
Aidan O’Connell 9% 11 1 0 3
Mac Jones 9% 11 1 1 3
Russell Wilson 7% 15 1 2 11
Bryce Young 6% 16 1 1 2
Gardner Minshew 6% 16 1 3 4
Kenny Pickett 0% 12 0 0 1
Zach Wilson 0% 12 0 1 2

Patrick Mahomes had a down year, comparatively, after being a resident Top-3 in 25 point games each season. Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen returned again from 2023 as the most consistently good fantasy quarterbacks and the only ones that managed the feat in more than half of their games.

C.J. Stroud was surprisingly low at 27% but he threw a healthy nine games with two or more touchdowns. Adding in Dak Prescott, Jordan Love and Brock Purdy, those five quarterbacks were the only ones with more than five games of 25-point outputs.

25 Points Gms 300 yards Gms 2 Touchdowns Gms
Jalen Hurts 12 C.J. Stroud 6 Josh Allen 16
Josh Allen 11 Derek Carr 6 Jalen Hurts 14
Lamar Jackson 8 Brock Purdy 5 Jordan Love 13
Dak Prescott 8 Dak Prescott 5 Dak Prescott 12
Brock Purdy 7 Jared Goff 5 Russell Wilson 11
Jordan Love 6 Josh Allen 5 Baker Mayfield 10
Justin Herbert 5 Matthew Stafford 5 Brock Purdy 10
Justin Fields 5 Sam Howell 5 Jared Goff 10
Joshua Dobbs 5 Tua Tagovailoa 5 C.J. Stroud 9
Jared Goff 5 Geno Smith 4 Patrick Mahomes 9
Tua Tagovailoa 4 Jalen Hurts 4 Derek Carr 8
Trevor Lawrence 4 Patrick Mahomes 4 Justin Herbert 8
Sam Howell 4 Lamar Jackson 8
Desmond Ridder 4 Sam Howell 8
C.J. Stroud 4 Tua Tagovailoa 8

Stroud was tied with Derek Carr for six 300-yard games and he did it while missing two weeks. Patrick Mahomes logged ten 300-yard efforts in 2023 but that was an outlier. Even top quarterbacks rarely have more than five or six 300-yard performances.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Quarterbacks

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 QBs change from year to year.

The elite quarterbacks of the NFL tend to be the most consistent players with Top-10 play for more than one season. With just 32 starting quarterbacks, the group is already limited and those at the top tend to stay at the top.

Also see: RB | WR | TE

Last year reclaimed more repeating Top-10 from 2021 with six. The only “bad” picks were Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott, and yet both suffered injuries and missed games to account for their decline in ranking.

Below are the rankings of all quarterbacks that lodged a Top-10 performance in the last five years. Quarterback is typically the most stable position, and even more so for the elite players. After a more volatile 2021, the position reclaimed the title as the most likely to repeat an elite year.

Top-10 QBs 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Patrick Mahomes 1 4 6 10 1
Josh Allen 2 1 1 9 22
Jalen Hurts 3 10 36 0 0
Joe Burrow 4 7 25 0 0
Geno Smith 5 42 76 0 65
Kirk Cousins 6 9 11 19 9
Trevor Lawrence 7 22 0 0 0
Justin Herbert 8 3 8 0 0
Jared Goff 9 24 16 11 6
Justin Fields 10 31 0 0 0
Tom Brady 11 2 7 14 11
Matthew Stafford 30 5 15 29 20
Dak Prescott 18 6 33 3 12
Aaron Rodgers 13 8 3 12 7
Kyler Murray 21 11 2 7 0
Deshaun Watson 35 0 4 5 5
Russell Wilson 14 20 5 4 10
Ryan Tannehill 27 13 9 23 30
Lamar Jackson 17 15 10 1 29
Jameis Winston 43 32 69 2 21
Ben Roethlisberger 0 21 14 54 2
Matt Ryan 23 17 12 6 3
Andrew Luck 0 0 0 0 4
Drew Brees 0 0 21 25 8
Carson Wentz 31 14 22 8 23
Top-10 Repeats 6 5 6 4

Not hard to see why Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are consistently the first two quarterbacks taken in fantasy drafts and often far earlier than the rest. Both quarterbacks are money for the last four or five years in a row.

Taking a Top-10 quarterback from the previous year typically pays off, but it’s also equally as important to select a difference-maker and that means a Top-5 quarterback.

This position regularly repeats a Top-10. Of the 25 quarterbacks reaching that mark at least once in the last five years, only Ryan Tannehill (2020),  Geno Smith (2022), Trevor Lawrence (2022), Justin Fields (2022) recorded their first ever Top-10 season.  Lawrence and Fields are both in just their third season this year. If a quarterback logs that Top-10 mark once, he almost always does it again.

It is interesting that only Justin Herbert (8 vs. 3) and Josh Allen (2 vs. 1) had worse years in 2022 than they did in 2021 (and Allen realistically doesn’t count). So the elite passers all had better years in 2022 than they did in 2021 – and that probably won’t happen again. Only three Top-10’s from 2021 experienced a better year in 2022.

That’s all to say that the position comes off a great year for the elite players. They almost all improved from the previous year, and the few that didn’t mostly had injuries pulling them down. And above all, anyone outside of Mahomes or Allen is a riskier, and likely less productive, draft pick.

Fantasy Football Consistency Rankings – Quarterbacks

It’s not how many points, but how often can a quarterback help your fantasy team win.

This ranking considers quarterbacks that started at least 11 games. Fantasy points were derived using one point per 20 yards passed or 10 yards rushed, six-point touchdowns rushed and four-point passed. There are not a lot of surprises since there are only 32 starting quarterbacks, and it is notable even when there isn’t a dramatic difference between quarterbacks.

Consistency is more important in head-to-head fantasy leagues where weekly wins and losses translate into the playoffs.

Also see:  Running backs | Wide receivers | Tight ends

Quarterback Consistency

Quarterback 25-pt. Gms Gms Played 25 Pts 300 Yds 2 TDs
Jalen Hurts 73% 15 11 4 12
Josh Allen 71% 17 12 6 14
Patrick Mahomes 71% 17 12 10 14
Joe Burrow 47% 17 8 5 13
Justin Fields 47% 15 7 0 7
Kyler Murray 36% 11 4 2 6
Geno Smith 35% 17 6 4 12
Kirk Cousins 35% 17 6 3 10
Dak Prescott 33% 12 4 1 8
Tua Tagovailoa 31% 13 4 4 6
Jared Goff 29% 17 5 5 9
Trevor Lawrence 29% 17 5 4 8
Russell Wilson 27% 15 4 1 4
Lamar Jackson 25% 12 3 1 4
Daniel Jones 19% 16 3 2 8
Justin Herbert 18% 17 3 5 8
Tom Brady 18% 17 3 5 6
Matt Ryan 17% 12 2 3 5
Marcus Mariota 15% 13 2 0 6
Jacoby Brissett 14% 14 2 1 3
Mac Jones 14% 14 2 2 4
Jimmy Garoppolo 9% 11 1 1 6
Andy Dalton 7% 14 1 1 4
Davis Mills 7% 15 1 2 6
Derek Carr 7% 15 1 2 10
Aaron Rodgers 0% 17 0 0 10
Kenny Pickett 0% 13 0 1 1
Baker Mayfield 0% 12 0 0 3
Ryan Tannehill 0% 12 0 1 6

As it worked out, taking a top-three quarterback last year was a difference maker from week to week. The drop-off was significant with no other quarterbacks managing to score at least 25 fantasy points in at least half of their games. And that fact translates into those three – Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts all being taken during the initial rounds of fantasy drafts.

That’s not to say the rest didn’t also turn in great fantasy years, but they were a bit more reliant on either the occasional big game or falling just short of that 25 fantasy-point mark.

25-pt. Games 300-yard Games 2-TD Games
Josh Allen 12 Patrick Mahomes 10 Josh Allen 14
Patrick   Mahomes 12 Josh Allen 6 Patrick Mahomes 14
Jalen Hurts 11 Joe Burrow 5 Joe Burrow 13
Joe Burrow 8 Jared Goff 5 Jalen Hurts 12
Justin Fields 7 Justin Herbert 5 Geno Smith 12
Geno Smith 6 Tom Brady 5 Kirk Cousins 10
Kirk Cousins 6 Jalen Hurts 4 Derek Carr 10
Jared Goff 5 Geno Smith 4 Aaron Rodgers 10
Trevor   Lawrence 5 Tua Tagovailoa 4 Jared Goff 9
Kyler Murray 4 Trevor Lawrence 4 Dak Prescott 8

Joe Burrow was fourth in most metrics but Geno Smith‘s career year is even more surprising with such a high ranking in games with at least two scores and 25 fantasy points.