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Gators hoops continues to climb up KenPom ratings at 11-0

Florida remains unbeaten after six weeks of college basketball action, and the Gators are approaching a top-5 rating according to KenPom.

The Florida Gators (11-0) moved up a spot in the KenPom College Basketball Ratings to No. 7 after a pair of big wins over Arizona State and North Carolina.

A net rating of plus-26.50 is 1.20 points higher than Gators Wire’s last check-in with KenPom on Dec. 8. The jump is expected after securing a pair of Quadrant 1 victories, the first two of the season for Florida.

Many college hoops experts and oddsmakers consider Pomeroy’s ratings to be the gold standard in the sport, and its reputation has lasted for more than 20 years.

“His ratings are derived from a proprietary algorithm, with the core centered on the Pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage, made famous by baseball statistician Bill James,” ESPN explains.

“Pomeroy’s formula is designed to be purely predictive, with an emphasis on margin of victory. He factors in offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo and even luck, but does not, however, take into consideration injuries or emotional factors.”

SEC KenPom ratings

Auburn (plus-35.36, 1st) leads all SEC programs followed by Tennessee (plus-31.45, 2nd), Florida and Alabama (plus-25.38, 8th) inside the top 10.

Thirteen of the 16 SEC programs are ranked inside the top 50.

Kentucky (plus-23.37 11th), Texas A&M (plus-21.69, 19th) and Mississippi State (plus-20.32, 25th) are inside the top 25, and Ole Miss (plus-19.97, 27th) is just outside that threshold.

Texas (plus-17.31, 37th), Oklahoma (plus-17.30, 38th), Georgia (plus-17.05, 39th), Arkansas (plus-16.94, 41st) and Missouri (plus-15.04, 50th) are the other top-50 teams from the conference.

LSU (plus-14.36, 56th), Vanderbilt (plus-13.24, 63rd) and South Carolina (plus-11.68, 66th) are all close to breaking into the top 50.

Breaking down the KenPom ratings

Date	Nov. 12 (Week 1)	Nov. 20 (Week 2)	Nov. 26 (Week 3)	Dec. 2 (Week 4)	Dec. 9 (Week 5)	Dec. 18 (Week 6)
W-L	3-0	5-0	6-0	8-0	9-0	11-0
NetRtg	+19.83 (20)	+20.74 (22)	+21.86 (18)	+25.33 (8)	+25.30 (8)	+26.50 (7)
ORtg	117.2 (13)	118.1 (11)	119.5 (8)	120.2 (9)	121.9 (5)	122.8 (7)
DRtg	97.4 (49)	97.4 (51)	97.6 (49)	94.9 (22)	96.6 (29)	96.3 (21)
AdjT	73.2 (47)	71.7 (72)	70.4 (93)	69.2 (125)	69.0 (131)	70.1 (83)
Luck	+.000 (117)	+.000 (182)	+.000 (188)	+.003 (181)	+.002 (187)	+.010 (178)
SOS Net	-4.16 (237)	-4.27 (239)	-3.79 (252)	-0.55 (189)	-1.28 (208)	+2.11 (102)
SOS ORtg	100.8 (265)	100.0 (293)	101.4 (303)	103.2 (269)	102.6 (319)	105.6 (230)
SOS DRtg	105.0 (198)	104.3 (167)	105.2 (164)	103.8 (62)	103.9 (87)	103.5 (45)
NCSOS Net	-4.16 (237)	-4.27 (239)	-3.79 (252)	-0.55 (189)	-1.28 (209)	+2.11 (98)

Since we last checked in with KenPom, Florida’s adjusted offensive efficiency rating has improved by 0.9 points per 100 possessions and the defense is allowing 0.3 fewer points per 100 possessions. Those numbers translate to a one-spot jump in the offensive ratings and an eight-spot ascent on defense.

Florida’s adjusted tempo improved for the first time this season and is now at 70.1 possessions per 40 minutes. After a preseason projection of 73.6 possessions per 40, Florida dipped as low as 69.0 earlier this month. The Gators are back inside the top 100 but still have work to do to crack the top-40 expectation set at the beginning of the season.

Florida has been expected to win most of its games, so its luck rating hasn’t deviated from a baseline triple zeroes at the beginning of the year. At plus-.010, the number is almost insignificant, which is a good thing. High luck can mean a lower rating and negative luck can mean underperforming.

Strength of Schedule according to KenPom

KenPom’s strength of schedule ratings only considers the games played, and Florida hasn’t played the toughest non-conference slate by any means. However, a pair of tough neutral site games against ASU and UNC have led to a jump in the rankings this week. Florida’s schedule is now ranked the 102nd toughest to date among Divison I programs and is the 98th-toughest non-conference schedule.

The rest of the non-conference schedule shouldn’t be much trouble, with North Florida (169th) and Stetson (350th) rounding out the calendar year. Still, the Gators need to be wary of any potential trap games.

Looking back at Florida’s 11 wins: four have come against top-100 programs, North Carolina (28th), Arizona State (58th), Florida State (65th) and Virginia (100th); five have come against opponents rated between 100 and 200, Wake Forest (101st), Wichita State (114th), South Florida (155th), Southern Illinois (162nd) and Jacksonville (175th); and two have come against opponents rated outside of the top 200, Grambling State (275th) and Florida A&M (349th).

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Florida up a spot in ESPN Basketball Power Index after 11-0 start

Florida keeps winning on the hardwood and ESPN keeps moving the Gators up its Basketball Power Index as a result.

Florida notched a pair of Quadrant 1 wins since the last time Gators Wire checked in on the ESPN Basketball Power Index. As a result, the Gators are ranked a season-high No. 14 on the BPI, a one-spot increase in 10 days.

Note: The BPI is updated daily; however Gators Wire provides weekly updates so as not to overwhelm fans with constant changes.

Florida’s BPI is 16.3, further broken down as 9.5 (10th) on offense and 6.9 (33rd) on defense. Compared to last week’s BPI numbers — 15.7, 9.6 and 6.1 — the offense is slightly down and the defense improved a significant amount. The Gators are trending up in both categories, though, moving up one spot and into the top 10 of the offensive rankings and up 11 spots on defense.

“The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team’s W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day’s rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.”

ESPN BPI Projections

ESPN now projects Florida to finish the season with a 23.2-7.8 overall record (1.1 more wins than last week) and a 10.2-7.8 record in conference play (0.3 more wins) based on results to date and BPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games. Beating strong programs such as Arizona State and North Carolina have greatly improved Florida’s non-conference résumé.

The Gators have 2.9% odds to win the conference, up from 2.2% a week ago. Florida faces the 41st-toughest schedule moving forward. As expected, the conference schedule will be a gauntlet.

NCAA Tournament Resume

The 11-0 start has the Gators ranked third overall in strength of record — up from 10th a week ago — which translates to a No. 1 seed if the season were to end today.

Florida’s overall strength of schedule is up to No. 53 and its non-conference strength of schedule is ranked No. 47. The Gators finally notched a “quality win” (against top 50 in BPI) by beating North Carolina, which ranks No. 19 in the latest BPI.

ESPN gives Florida 1.1% odds of winning the NCAA Tournament and 2.8% odds of making it to the championship game. A Final Four appearance (7.5%) or Elite Eight appearance (17.3%) continue to see increased odds, as do the chances of a Sweet 16 (38.5%) and Round of 32 appearance (73.4%).

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Florida basketball drops in NET rankings despite signature win over UNC

Florida basketball notched its biggest win of the season on Tuesday against North Carolina, but the NET rankings didn’t reward the Gators.

Florida basketball secured its biggest win of the season over North Carolina on Tuesday but perplexingly dropped out of the NCAA NET rankings top five.

The Gators opened the month at No. 6 on the rankings and dipped to No. 7 despite holding a perfect record, but the Orange and Blue held the No. 5 spot going into Tuesday’s matchup. A Quadrant 1 victory usually means improvement in these rankings, or at least holding steady, but the math didn’t work in Florida’s favor.

Iowa State swapped places with Florida, which means the Gators were ranked in the top 5 before the win over UNC. To make things even more confusing ISU didn’t play on Tuesday.

Trying to explain Florida’s dip in the NET

The most logical explanation is the disparity in Q1 wins, but all three of Iowa State’s victories that fall in the category would have qualified as Q1 matchups 24 hours ago. Both programs are 1-0 in Q2 matchups, and neither team has lost a Q3 or Q4 matchup. So, what’s up?

Well, the one stat left to look at is Wins Above Bubble (WAB), in which Iowa State has one more win (6-0) than Florida (5-0). The metric, created by analytics website BartTorvik.com, is similar to WAR (wins above replacement) in baseball and was added to the NET rankings calculation this season.

Typically, WAB is calculated a plus-minus value, so the conversion to wins and losses is a bit of a mystery to us here at Gators Wire. For anyone familiar with these kinds of metrics, a lot of math is involved and can be a bit complicated. We’re not going to pretend we understand the nuances of a secret formula, but that’s the stat we’ll point to when explaining Florida’s slight dip in these rankings.

It’s important to remember that while they are called “rankings” the NET is an evaluation tool at heart — that’s what the E and T stand for. It’s not a hard list and the selection committee can sort things however they please. Still, it’s odd to see Florida go down on a rankings list after such a big win. That’s life, though.

“The 2024-25 men’s basketball season marks the seventh season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams,” according to the NCAA.

While Top 25 polls remain popular, it’s the NET rankings that are used by the NCAA Tournament committee to seed teams in March. The rankings rely on a quadrant system (below), where Quadrant 1 (Q1) wins and Q3/Q4 losses matter the most.

Breaking down Florida’s wins by Quadrant

Before going into Florida’s resume, it’s important to understand how the quadrants are divided. Where a game is played has as much to do with the quadrant as the quality of the opponent. As the rankings change, so do the quality of the wins.

For example, Florida’s win at Florida State was a Q1 win at the time but as since been downgraded to a Q2 victory based on the criteria below.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

The good news is Florida has two fairly firm Q1 wins under its belt now, which will help come Selection Sunday.

Florida’s two Q1 victories are its most recent wins against No. 50 Arizona State and No. 37 North Carolina, both of which came at a neutral site.

The Gators won its lone Q2 matchup against Florida State (No. 76) on the road, but a neutral site win over Wichita State (No. 124) at the ESPN Events Invitational has been downgraded to a Q3 win since we last checked in.

In addition to the Wichita State win, Florida has defeated South Florida (No. 186), Virginia (No. 101) and Wake Forest (No. 104), giving UF a 4-0 record against Q3 opponents.

Wake Forest is the closest of those victories to moving into Q2 range being a neutral-site victory, where the cutoff is No. 100. Virginia is ranked higher than Wake Forest, but the win came on Florida’s home court. The South Florida win also came on a neutral court, but the Bulls are closer to Q4 than Q2 at this point.

Finally, Florida is 4-0 against Q4 opponents. All four wins have come at home: Florida A&M (No. 311), Grambling (No. 295), Jacksonville (No. 168) and Southern Illinois (No. 180). Odds are slim for any of these programs to crack the Q3 threshold, but ascending past No. 161 seems doable for the latter two teams mentioned.

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Dooley’s Dozen: Previewing Florida basketball’s 2022-23 campaign

Take a look at a dozen of the most important storylines ahead of Florida’s 2022-23 men’s basketball campaign.

Very early on in his new job as the University of Florida head basketball coach, [autotag]Todd Golden[/autotag] couldn’t figure it out.

Here he was, finally in the big chair at a Power 5 school with a pretty sweet trophy case he would see at work every day and nobody seemed interested in talking basketball in the fall with the hoops season right around the corner.

As the story goes, it was explained to him that all the media focus is on the other sport in this drinking town with a football program (I bought that same t-shirt in Athens in 1995).

So, Golden thought outside the box and that’s not the last time you will see that. He opened practices to the media. It was unprecedented access which was much appreciated and generated more stories on hoops.

Hmm, making life better for the media. What a novel idea.

Golden is still getting his feet wet in Gainesville, but he is about to be knee-deep in his first season as the Gators’ head coach. It will be an interesting mix of transfers, holdovers and recruits to go to battle in the difficult SEC and the season begins Monday when Stony Brook comes to town.

A bonus Dooley’s Dozen this week gives you a look at 12 Things to know about this Gator basketball team.

Dooley’s Dozen: A look at Florida’s trip to face Texas A&M Aggies

Here’s everything you need to know about this Saturday’s road matchup in College Station.

Nobody thought when this season began that Florida and Texas A&M would be playing a game that started at 11 a.m. CDT in a battle of 1-4 SEC teams.

After all, the Aggies started the season ranked sixth in the country, while Florida jumped up to No. 12 after beating Utah in the opener.

But hard times have fallen on both programs. Florida has struggled, but A&M has been a bigger flop this season because of the No. 1 recruiting class and Jimbo Fisher’s contract extension.

This is where we are with both coaches talking this week about how important this game is for bowl eligibility.

And it is big in that regard.

This week’s Dooley’s Dozen takes a look at everything you need to know about… the Texas A&M Aggies (3-5, 1-4 SEC).

Expert Predictions: Will Florida prevail over Missouri in its homecoming game?

Mizzou has given the Gators some fits in their recent history. Will the Orange and Blue prevail in front of a homecoming crowd?

Florida football gets set to play its 2022 homecoming game against the Missouri Tigers this Saturday inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and the excitement is steadily rising as the week wears on. The Gators are hoping to build some momentum after a blowout win over an FCS opponent while Mizzou has had a pair of straight heart breakers in SEC play.

Both teams are 0-2 so far in their conference schedules but how they arrived at that mark was quite different. The Orange and Blue was shocked at home by the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 2 before being bested on the road against the Tennessee Volunteers in Week 4. Missouri dropped a road match against the Auburn Tigers that same week while losing a late lead against the Georgia Bulldogs at home last weekend.

The two schools have evenly split the series since Missouri joined the SEC over a decade ago at an even 5-5 record — the Tigers holding the overall tie-breaker with a 20-18 win way back in the 1966 Sugar Bowl. It is not a storied rivalry but there has been plenty of back-and-forth, especially in recent years.

The Gators Wire crew converged to give their predictions for Florida’s upcoming homecoming game against Mizzou — the third time they have served as UF’s opponent on the university’s special alumni day. Take a look below at what we think will happen this Saturday in the Swamp.

Dooley’s Dozen: 12 must-know facts ahead of Florida’s homecoming game

Pat Dooley dishes out a dozen important facts about Florida’s upcoming homecoming game against the Missouri Tigers.

Remember in the old days when Florida would play a non-SEC school on homecoming so the alumni would be sure to go home happy?

That changed in 1996 when Florida started playing SEC games on its special day.

This is the third time that Florida will play Missouri on homecoming. They also did in 2014 and 2016.

Florida will have its Hall of Fame induction the night before the game as usual with football players [autotag]Joe Haden[/autotag] and [autotag]Jeff Demps[/autotag] being inducted along with seven others including former athletic director [autotag]Jeremy Foley[/autotag].

But this is about the school that goes by “Mizzou” more than by the school name.

So, here we go with 12 things you need to know about… MIZZOU.

Expert Predictions: Can Florida keep up its winning ways against Tennessee?

Can Florida keep its winning mojo over the Vols this weekend? It’s a tough task, and the Gators Wire crew weighed in with their thoughts.

Florida football faces one of its long-time Southeastern Conference rivals this Saturday in Neyland Stadium as [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag]’s squad treks up to Knoxville to face the Tennessee Volunteers. The Gators have owned this series since the mid-aughts having won 16 of the last 17 meetings between the two schools but the tables are ripe for turning this time around.

The Orange and Blue enter the game ranked No. 22 by the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and No. 20 in the AP Top 25 after a narrow win over an inferior South Florida Bulls team at home. That and a loss to the visiting Kentucky Wildcats have undone much of the progress earned from the season-opening upset of the Utah Utes in the Swamp.

The Vols, on the other hand, have started off strong winning all three of their opening matchups, including a grueling overtime win against the Pitt Panthers on the road. For their efforts, the polls have them at Nos. 12 and 11, respectively heading into Week 4.

The Gators Wire roundtable convened to give its outlook for what looks to be Florida’s biggest challenge yet. See below what our five expert respondents had to say ahead of this weekend’s gridiron affair along with our composite prediction.

Dooley’s Dozen: 12 things you must know for the Florida-Tennessee game

Here are a dozen important facts about Florida’s upcoming road game against the Tennessee Volunteers.

There was a time when Florida-Tennessee was THE rivalry game in the SEC. This is how big it was – a UF player once told us in a press conference in the 1990s that Tennessee week was the week where you made sure you didn’t drink any alcohol.

Now that is serious.

With the emergence of superpowers Alabama and Georgia, the rivalry hasn’t seemed as big a deal. Also, Florida has dominated it to the point that a lot of people were surprised that GameDay was going to be there (to be honest, there’s not much else on the docket Saturday).

This game will finish up what was considered to be the toughest September schedule in the country this year, with Florida facing teams ranked seventh, 20th and 11th. It will also be the first road game in a very unusual schedule for Florida.

All that said, Dooley’s Dozen takes a look at 12 things you need to know about… Tennessee.

Heisman Trophy Odds: Where Anthony Richardson stands after Week 2

Anthony Richardson’s Heisman odds didn’t take quite the hit we expected after an underwhelming Week 2.

Anthony Richardson started out the 2022 campaign en fuego, leading Florida football to an upset win over the Utah Utes in the Swamp to open the schedule as well as the Billy Napier era with a bang. The Gators’ starting quarterback quickly caught the attention of the national media, and even with the preseason hype he received, his stock rose even higher.

However, the redshirt sophomore regressed in his second game, the SEC opener against the Kentucky Wildcats, in which he seemed to be his and his team’s own worse enemy, essentially giving the game away with a pair of picks along with his overall subpar performance.

Nonetheless, many still believe in his unquestionable raw talent. Additionally, that Wildcats squad that shut him down is both a formidable conference opponent as well as a fellow top-20 team. With that in mind, he still seems to be retaining value in the Heisman Trophy odds.

Take a look below at the top 10 candidates for the Heisman Trophy this season and their odds after Week 2 of play, according to BetMGM at the time of publication.