Tag: Week 7 DFS football picks

Ok, we survived the London games, but now we are staring at Bye-mageddon. Speaking of which, with so many teams on vacation this week, how did Miami get forced to play on the week following their London game?

Six teams are taking the week off and we are not talking about a collection of also-rans here. We actually have to dodge the loss of the Bills, Steelers, Vikings, Chargers, Cowboys, and the Jaguars. That is a lot of talent that we will not be able to use on the main slate.

On top of that, we also have Denver, Cleveland, Indy, San Francisco, the Saints, and the Seahawks in primetime games. Ay, caramba!

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Indianapolis will be facing what was at one time (a long, long time ago in a galaxy far, far away) a good San Francisco defense. Now they will have to hold in check an Indy offense that has looked alive the last couple of weeks with Carson Wentz at the helm. With multiple creampuff defenses on this slate, Wentz will battle with Jameis Winston for QB1 here.

Indy’s defense may actually be worse than San Francisco’s. Unfortunately, we don’t know if Trey Lance will get the start with his sprained knee, or if Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center. Whoever gets the start will slide into the QB3 slot on this slate. Lance obviously has more upside with his rushing ability, but even that may be negated if his leg is problematic. As I mentioned, Indy’s defense is crummy. So, give a bump in passing numbers to whichever of these guys gets the start.

When Jonathan Taylor touched the ball last week, he looked like the best RB in the league. Still, Frank Reich felt the need to limit his touches for much of the game. This is obviously a horrific trait he learned while in Philly. I’m not taking anything away from Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack, both of whom could have value as primary ball carriers for several other NFL teams. The Niners have given up a rushing TD in four of five games, so Taylor easily should lock into the RB2 slot this week. San Fran has also struggled with pass-catching backs, so I could see using Hines at FLEX as well. As for Mack, leave him for Showdown slates where his price has been ridiculously low.

Coming off of the bye week, good luck ascertaining which RB will lead the Niners. In Week 5, 11 of the 17 RB opportunities went to Elijah Mitchell. Still, his line was so-so as Deebo Samuel vultured a rushing TD and Trey Lance actually led the team in rushing yards. Indy gave up big yards to true RB1s the first three weeks. Then they faced RBBC backfields the last three weeks and held them mostly in check. If Mitchell gets a full RB1 volume, you can lock him in at RB3. Unfortunately, I don’t think we can rely on that. So, I would rather leave him as a money-saving pivot, at best. In Week 4 (with Mitchell out), Trey Sermon was the bell cow. He has done next to nothing in any of the other games, so leave him on your bench. The only other RB I could consider here is Kyle Juszczyk. He is always a red zone threat, and his pass-catching skills put him in FLEX consideration.

T.Y. Hilton returned last week and did his usual dismantling of the Texans. His presence seemed to hurt Michael Pittman the most. Unfortunately for Hilton, he suffered a new injury, which may cost him this game. If Hilton plays, he should be in consideration for your WR3 slot or FLEX. If T.Y. misses this game, consider it an even bigger boon for Pittman, who would immediately jump from middling WR3 to solid WR2 option. Parris Campbell scored on a long TD, and then he also left the game with an injury. It seems that Hilton’s presence won’t have an impact on his snaps but the injury certainly will as he is out indefinitely. Zach Pascal was an afterthought for Indy in Week 6 with only one target. He did have five targets or more in every prior game, so Hilton obviously hurt him, too. If Hilton misses this game, I’d consider Pascal at FLEX level.

Deebo Samuel is locked into the WR1 role on this slate. Opposing WR1s have clowned the Colts over the last three games. Deebo is averaging more than 110 yards on 10 targets per game. This week he should post 8-125-1. There is no excuse for the lack of usage of Brandon Aiyuk. If he doesn’t take advantage of this cake matchup, you can cut him. As it stands, he should post about 6-60 with the chance of a score. Mohamed Sanu is running fewer snaps than Aiyuk, but he has more counting stats this season. I just don’t see enough upside in using him.

I nailed the call on Mo Alie-Cox in Week 6. This week I want to skip him. T.J. Hockenson (back in Week 1) is the only TE to do anything against this defense. The only reason to consider him is that this slate is devoid of skilled players at the position. Alie-Cox gets the TE2 tag here, but I don’t particularly care for it. Jack Doyle can stay on the bench as well.

The Colts have been smooshed by TEs two of the last three weeks. They even bent (without breaking) versus Houston in Week 6. With George Kittle still on IR, Ross Dwelley gets the defacto TE3 nod here. That said, I don’t particularly care for him, either. Have I mentioned yet how bad the TEs are on this slate?

Indy’s defense, which has not been good, could be used if Lance gets the start. Still, neither should be used over New Orleans.

Speaking of the Saints, Monday night New Orleans visits the Cappuccino Capitol. I don’t know if they will bring any chicory coffee with them or if they will just hit up Starbucks when they land. Either way, I expect Jameis Winston to be fully wide awake and caffeinated as he picks apart a rotten Seattle secondary. Winston is my preferred choice at QB1, but his numbers will be very similar to those from Carson Wentz. Taysom Hill entered the concussion protocol in Week 5, but he should be back in time for this game. There really isn’t an easy way to get him into your lineup, except maybe as SF on Fanball.

It is easier to pass against New Orleans than run, but I still don’t like Geno Smith this week. You know the schedule makers are kicking themselves over having a backup QB for Seattle starting in primetime back-to-back weeks. Smith’s best ceiling would be 225-2, which would be the worst line on the docket by far.

I shouldn’t have to tell you to start Alvin Kamara. Your RB1 and RB2 should be Kamara and Jonathan Taylor, and if they aren’t, you can just Venmo me your entry fees.

The Saints are elite against the run, but they have been gouged this year by pass-catching backs. You could use that argument for playing Travis Homer this week. He wouldn’t be anything other than your punt FLEX play. Alex Collins (or Chris Carson if he actually plays) should be avoided. Collins, because he is dealing with multiple lower-body injuries. Carson, because he could get hit once and be knocked out of the game (and his price will be too high). Early reports are that Rashaad Penny will return this week. His presence will only further cannibalize either Collins or Carson anyways. If Both Collins and Carson are out, I could see giving Penny the volume FLEX play. DeeJay Dallas is no more than a Showdown dart throw.

I expected Michael Thomas to play more games this year than last. He is able to return to practice this week, but right now it appears he will miss at least a couple more games. Tre’Quan Smith is scheduled to return. Unlike Thomas, he may play this week, but he doesn’t exactly scare opposing defenses. Still, Seattle’s pass defense is so putrid that I could step in off the street and score this week. In their absence, Deonte Harris and Marquez Callaway have both balled out. I love Callaway here, but Harris, who is also battling a hamstring injury, can probably be avoided. If Smith doesn’t play, then Harris can be considered. Kenny Stills played sparingly with the starters out, his production will take a huge hit from next to nothing to just plain old nothing with their return.

DK Metcalf will likely draw Marshon Lattimore. That combined with Geno Smith at QB really brings down his value. At his price, you are begging for a score to get him 2x value. Tyler Lockett gets a better matchup, but his reliability is suspect with Russell Wilson at QB and borderline unusable with Smith at QB. I will have some exposure to him at WR2, but not a lot. Freddie Swain has been a valuable third option for Seattle. You could do a lot worse for a punt WR3. Just know that he is really TD-dependent.

Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman have combined for six catches total since Week 1. With the Saints’ WRs coming back healthy this week, neither of these two frauds belongs anywhere near your lineup card.

Gerald Everett is your TE1 here. Good Gawd! This reeks worse than microwave fish. One thing is for certain, double-TE is not in play on this slate. The Saints are actually really good against TEs, too, but backup QBs do tend to look to their TEs a little more than normal. At this point, I long for the days when Taysom Hill qualified at TE.

The Saints defense is the clear option one this week. I could see pivoting to the rotten Seattle defense in hopes that Winston throws an interception or two. I didn’t say I would do it. I just said that I could see someone doing it.

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The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $7.1k for Matthew Stafford. $6.6k for Darrell Henderson. $6.1k for Chuba Hubbard. $8.4k for Cooper Kupp. $5.6k for Jaylen Waddle. $3.4k for Rashod Bateman. $3.9K for Zach Ertz. $5.8k for Darrel Williams at FLEX. $3.1k for the Arizona Cardinals defense.

At FD: $7.9k for Aaron Rodgers. $7.3k for Hubbard. $5.7k for J.D. McKissic. $8.8k for Kupp. $9k for Davante Adams. $5.9k for Waddle. $5.3k for Ertz. $5.2k for Le’Veon Bell at FLEX. $4.9k for the Los Angeles Rams defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Stafford, Rodgers at SF, Hubbard, McKissic, Bell at FLEX, Adams, Kupp, Bateman, and Ertz.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Basically every top QB on the board is a great play this week. Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray are the most expensive and are also among the best overall plays. To save a little money, I will be more exposed to Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. There are three midpriced options that I like in Sam Darnold, Matt Ryan, and Tua Tagovailoa. I won’t do a lot of it, but Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Taylor Heinicke could be worth stacking with their top option as a punt play.

Fantasy Four-pack

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs @ TEN
($8,400 DK, $8,800 FD)
Carson Wentz is the only QB this season to not net two or more TDs against this defense. Meanwhile, Mahomes has multiple TDs every week as he leads all QBs in total scores. I love Saint Patrick to post 375-3 here in an assumed shootout.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. WAS
($7,500 DK, $7,900 FD)
Rodgers gets a slight discount double-check on price compared with Kyler Murray and Mahomes. Still, he has a legit chance to outproduce at least one of them. Washington has allowed the most passing yards, the most passing TDs, the second-most QB rushing yards, and the fifth-most QB rushing TDs. Rodgers doesn’t run a ton, but he has called his own number at the stripe on occasion. Of course, any rushing prowess is cake on top of the 325-3 that Rodgers will finish with through the air.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals vs. HOU
($8,500 DK, $8,700 FD) 
Houston has been atrocious against the run and just mostly atrocious against the pass. Most of this is due to the fact that teams don’t really have to throw against them. Murray looked smooth again last week following three stinkers. I expect his positive streak to continue here. Passing for 275 and three total scores feels like his floor, and that isn’t even including any ground yardage he nets.

Matthew Stafford, Rams vs. DET
($7,100 DK, $8,100 FD)
This season the money-winning stack has been Stafford and Cooper Kupp basically every week except one. That week the winning stack was Stafford and Robert Woods. Detroit won’t be able to cover either of them. Heck, they will struggle to cover Van Jefferson. The only game that Stafford hasn’t thrown multiple TDs was Week 5. In that game, he still finished with 365 passing yards. Another 300-3 should be in play here with a 275-2 floor.

DFS Sleepers

Matt Ryan, Falcons @ MIA
($5,700 DK, $7,300 FD)
Miami decided to not take their bye week following their trip to London. This is just the most recent example of shoddy decisions by their coaching staff. They have several injuries in their defensive backfield and those who are healthy will likely be jet lagged. Meanwhile, Ryan is going to get back his entire complement of pass-catchers. Just lock me into the triple stack of Ryan-Calvin Ridley-Kyle Pitts.

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins vs. ATL
($5,500 DK, $7,100 FD)
I am concerned about the Miami defense in this game due to their playing last week in London. That said, I am also concerned about the Atlanta defense due simply to them being awful. Tagovailoa put up big numbers against the Jags, so perhaps he is turning the page in terms of confidence. Lord knows that he might need a boost of confidence with all of the trade rumors circling him. I will definitely be using him stacked with Jaylen Waddle or Mike Gesicki.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Derek Henry is a stud. I will gladly play him on DK. That said, even I cannot envision a methodology to get an $11k Henry into a FanDuel lineup. While there are several awesome plays at QB this week. The RB slate is kind of lame. I don’t mind Joe Mixon, but I am scared he will hurt himself. I might have some exposure to him, but most of my RB slots will be taken up by Chuba Hubbard and Darrell Henderson. I don’t mind Cordarrelle Patterson‘s DK price. I could also see spending down and using one of Darrel Williams, Damien Harris, Devontae Booker, or one of the Cardinals. To save money for top-tier WRs, I may just use two of that second tier of backs. I also really like the idea of using J.D. McKissic, Le’Veon Bell, or Mark Ingram as a volume punt piece.

Fantasy Four-pack

Derrick Henry, Titans vs. KC
($9,200 DK, $11,000 FD)
$11-Freaking-Thousand. Come on, man! Henry is always capable of reaching the 30-point plateau, but it’s never a lock. Plus, I am actually concerned that Tennessee will be forced to throw to keep this game close. I adore some of the expensive WRs on the board, so I will likely pass on him here.

Darrell Henderson, Rams vs. DET
($6,600 DK, $8,000 FD) 
The Lions are allowing just under 160 combo yards per game to opposing RBs. They have also allowed two total RB scores per game. Henderson may split some of the work with Sony Michel (shoulder) this week, presuming the former Patriot is active, but he should be safe to finish with at least 100-1, if so. I wish his FD price was a tad less, but that won’t keep me from using him.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons @ MIA
($6,300 DK, $8,000 FD)
As bad as the Dolphins defense has looked against the pass the last few weeks, their rushing defense has been worse. This defense made Peyton Barber and Leonard Fournette look like Barry Sanders and Marshall Faulk. Sure, Mike Davis will get his share, but I love Patterson to continue his absurd reception pace. Much like Henderson above, Patterson’s FD price is high. Still, I’ll be using him a fair amount on DK.

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers @ NYG
($6,100 DK, $7,300 FD)
He may not be Christian McCaffrey, but Hubbard has been serviceable as an injury replacement. This week will be his easiest matchup to date as the Giants have allowed four total RB scores and 184 offensive yards per game over their last three contests.

DFS Sleepers

Devontae Booker, Giants vs. CAR
($5,500 DK, $5,800 FD)
Booker appears on track to get his second-straight week of filling in for Saquon Barkley. Carolina looked elite against the run early on this year, but in two of the last three weeks, they have been gouged. Booker should approach 100 total yards, and I like him to punch in a score in what could be a sneaky score fest.

J.D. McKissic, Football Team @ GB
($5,000 DK, $5,700 FD)
McKissic has five or more receptions in three of his last five games. His usage is obviously trending up while Antonio Gibson battles his shin injury. Gibson has played through the injury for a couple of weeks now, but he suffered enough of a setback to require an MRI this past Monday. I can basically guarantee that McKissic will finish with 5-50 through the air. If he gets a healthy share of the carries, too, 100 total yards and a score becomes a lock.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – It’s not often that I am gung ho to spend up at WR. This week is the exception. Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp have absurdly sick matchups. Plus, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, and Calvin Ridley each have cake matchups as well. I love the idea of mixing and matching two of that fivesome. There are three cheaper pivots that I don’t mind in A.J. Brown, Brandin Cooks, and Jaylen Waddle. I could even see using one of them at WR3. The other WR3 options that I like are Christian Kirk, Hunter Renfrow, Robby Anderson, Darnell Mooney, and Rondale Moore. Still, there is no single play at WR that I like better than Rashod Bateman. Start your roster build with him in the WR3 slot.

Fantasy Four-pack

Davante Adams, Packers vs. WAS
($8,900 DK, $9,000 FD)
Adams didn’t blow up like I imagined last week. When Adams has a down week, you can be damned sure that he will evicerate the defense the following week. The poor saps on the Washington Football Team don’t know what’s in store for them. This smells of a 13-175-2 game.

Cooper Kupp, Rams vs. DET
($8,400 DK, $8,800 FD)
Kupp has topped 90 receiving yards in every game except one. He has double-digit targets in every game. Plus, he has multiple TDs in half of his games. Detroit has posted adequate stats against the pass. This is because they are so rotten against opposing rushing attacks. This week, the Lions will succumb to both. His numbers won’t be as ridiculous as Adams’, but Kupp also has a 10-120-2 ceiling.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs @ TEN
($8,600 DK, $8,500 FD)
Tennessee has allowed the most receiving yards, the most receiving TDs, and the most total receptions to the WR position. So why isn’t Hill ranked higher? Simply put, I am concerned both about the quad injury that he has played through and the volume of weapons that Patrick Mahomes has to choose from. Week-to-week, his ceiling is astronomical. I just wish he had a slightly safer floor here.

Calvin Ridley, Falcons @ MIA
($6,600 DK, $7,300 FD)
We may never know what the “personal issues” were for Ridley last week. I only hope that he is ok on all levels coming back into work this week. Miami is short-handed in their secondary and they have allowed multiple fantasy-relevant WR performances each of the last four weeks. I will put together several stacks with Matt Ryan-Ridley-Kyle Pitts.

DFS Sleepers

Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins vs. ATL
($5,600 DK, $5,900 FD)
Miami loves to throw the ball to Waddle and Mike Gesicki. I was concerned that a returning Tua Tagovailoa might not target Waddle as frequently as Jacoby Brissett did. Tua still looked his way 13 times last week. That is elite. As I mentioned above, I love the Falcons stack this week. This makes Waddle a great run-it-back candidate.

Rashod Bateman, Ravens vs. CIN
($3,400 DK, $5,300 FD)
Bateman may already be the best receiver on the Ravens. In his first game as a professional, Bateman led the Ravens in targets. His yardage and reception numbers weren’t anything huge, but that will come, starting this week. Detroit is the only team to not have a possession receiver dominate this defense. We may see Bateman’s first double-digit target game, and I would not be surprised if he hauls in his first career score here.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Both Travis Kelce and Darren Waller are in play this week. Just not on my roster builds as I am spending too much elsewhere. Kyle Pitts in the threeway stack, and his game opponent, Mike Gesicki, make nice options to build around. To save a little money, Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz (my personal favorite TE of the week), and Ricky Seals-Jones would be my choices. Also, keep an eye on Dallas Goedert’s status going into the game. If he clears COVID protocols, he will have a huge target share. The punt picture is weak this week. C.J. Uzomah and Tommy Tremble are the only two I care to have on my roster.

Fantasy Four-pack

Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ TEN
($7,600 DK, $8,200 FD)
Tennessee’s numbers have looked elite against the TE position. Sometimes, stats can hide facts, though. Prior to facing Dawson Knox on MNF, the best TEs that Tennessee had played against were Dan Arnold and Mo Alie-Cox. I’m not going to stretch to fit Kelce into my lineups, but he makes a nice in-game pivot from Tyreek Hill if you want exposure to the Chiefs offense.

Darren Waller, Raiders vs. PHI
($6,700 DK, $6,800 FD)
Waller did not get the boost in usage that I was hoping for with the Raiders’ coaching change. In fact, he received a season-low in targets. That is slightly concerning, but not as concerning as how bad the Eagles are performing right now. They have allowed the third-most receptions and the most receiving TDs to the position. The offense will find Waller sooner rather than later, starting this week.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons @ MIA
($5,900 DK, $6,100 FD)
Matt Ryan was forced to use Pitts in London. I think he got the message that the rookie is an otherworldly stud. Now that Atlanta has seen the domination this specimen can unveil on the opposition, there is no putting it back in the box. Yes, Atlanta is getting back Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage this week. I like them both as well. Pitts may not top 100 yards this week, but get used to 7-75-1 as a weekly floor.

Mike Gesicki, Dolphins vs. ATL ($4,700 DK, $6,000 FD)
Yet again, I am seeking as much exposure to this game as possible. Each side will post huge numbers because both defenses are just plain putrid. The Falcons have faced a couple of quality TEs. Each has fared well against them. Meanwhile, Gesicki went off for 8-115 last week with Tua Tagovailoa back at the helm. This may be the start of a beautiful friendship between them (assuming Tua isn’t traded).

DFS Sleepers

Zach Ertz, Cardinals vs. HOU
($3,900 DK, $5,300 FD)
Free at last. Free at last. Thank God Almighty, Ertz is free at last. Sure, that isn’t what Martin Luther King was proclaiming when he made his famous speech. Still, Ertz must feel emancipated from his forced split of duties in Philly. With the Cardinals, he will still split targets with a lot of talented individuals. The difference is none of them are fellow TEs. Houston has allowed an average of 6-68 to the position including five TDs. Ertz will score here and don’t be surprised if he finishes with more than five receptions.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Football Team @ GB
($3,700 DK, $5,400 FD)
Seals-Jones rewarded his users with 4-58-1 last week. Green Bay is not as bad against TEs as KC is, but they have given up three scores to the position already. The Football Team remains short-handed in their passing game, so don’t be surprised if RSJ continues to be fed, provided he can overcome a quad injury that limited him Thursday in practice.