A late missed Arizona dunk led to a Washington State backdoor cover in one of the season’s worst beats

Here’s how a missed open dunk may have cost bettors money.

Remember last week when I wrote about how an unnecessary UC Riverside buzzer-beater was a lock for the worst beat of this 2022-23 college basketball season? Well, it may have some new competition.

Thursday night’s Pac-12 matchup between the No. 5 Arizona Wildcats and Washinton State Cougars was going about as expected — the Wildcats were cruising to a comfortable win, and the overmatched Cougars were failing to cover the spread. But just as Zona, up by eight points with under seven seconds remaining, appeared seconds away from covering the spread (-5.5) and landing bettors some extra money, this happened:

A routine, uncontested dunk could’ve sent Arizona back to Tucson with a 10-point road victory. But nope — the basketball higher-ups had other plans.

Hey, maybe you were one of the Wazzu backers that had them covering this one. Congrats to y’all! But I can’t begin to imagine what type of pain the Arizona -5.5 bettors had to have felt while watching this play out in real-time.

Just brutal.

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Where USC and Washington State stand after Trojans beat Cougars in Pullman

What is the true meaning of USC beating Wazzu? Was this a “winner take all” bubble game, or a “loser takes a hit” bubble game? Let’s be sure to properly calibrate the stakes.

When we get into a bubble conversation, we need to be precise about the meaning and value of various games. USC and Washington State entered Friday night’s game on the bubble, but that’s not precise enough. It’s more specific to say that USC and Wazzu were both on the good side of the bubble. They were both narrowly inside the cut line for inclusion in the 2023 Women’s NCAA Tournament.

Sometimes, two bubble teams are in the middle of the bubble. Sometimes, two bubble teams are on the bad side — or low end — of the bubble. Each instance is unique.

With USC and Washington State both being on the good side of the bubble, it was more a case of the winner gaining value from the result, not the loser taking a huge and very damaging hit.

No, the loser isn’t undamaged by the result. Washington State does lose a certain degree of leverage in all of this. However, it’s much more the case that USC benefits as the 51-44 winner of the game. WSU still has tons of chances to impress the selection committee. USC probably gained one seed line and thereby improved its place on the seed list by at least three or four positions.

We talked to Washington State expert Jeff Nusser for his view — from the Cougars’ perspective — on what this bubble game is likely to mean:

“I’m still not sure I totally understand the selection criteria for the women’s tournament, which seems to be a little more mysterious than the men’s side,” Nusser told us. “The one thing I think I’ve learned over the past two years is that the committee really loves to see a team show that it can beat quality opponents, and both WSU (at No. 12 NET Oregon) and USC (vs. No. 4 NET Stanford) have done that. Beyond that, neither team has any majorly puzzling losses. As long both take care of business down the stretch in the way you described, I’d assume both get in. 

“I guess it’s possible that this game could be meaningful as a separation point if both are on the bubble, but I don’t think this one, all alone, has much of an impact. Maybe if one team wins big – particularly if that one team is USC – it makes a difference, but I don’t think so. They’ll play each other again at the end of the year in Los Angeles, and there’s a lot of hoop between now and then.”

That’s a really good point: USC hosts the Washington schools to end the regular season in late February, just before the Pac-12 Tournament in early March. We’ll see where the Trojans and Washington State are when they arrive at that rematch.

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USC scores significant road win at Washington State, improves odds of making NCAA Tournament

The Trojans won a bubble game vs Washington State, taking a small but important step in the right direction. Their NCAA tourney odds are increasing by the day.

The USC women’s basketball team caught a break … but good teams take advantage of breaks when they come. What were the Trojans supposed to do? Not cash in an unexpected plot twist? They needed to pounce, and they did.

USC defeated Washington State on Friday night in Pullman. The Trojans won, 51-44, on a night when Washington State star Charlisse Leger-Walker was out of the lineup and en route to her native New Zealand to tend to a personal matter. That piece of late-breaking news left Washington State shorthanded, increasing the need for USC to grab a win. A loss would have looked even worse for the NCAA selection committee, which is now paying closer attention to the Trojans following their headline-generating win over Stanford.

A win keeps USC on course for the NCAA Tournament. The Trojans get a road win in the conference against another team on the bubble. They did not stumble after becoming more of a target in the Pac-12.

Kadi Sissoko, who did not play in the upset win over Stanford, came back to the Trojans’ lineup on Friday and led all scorers with 19 points, 15 in the first half. Sissoko made six of USC’s 10 first-half field goals. Sissoko’s USC teammates scored 21 of the Trojans’ 25 points in the second half. That’s not a lot of points, but with USC holding Washington State to 44 points, it was enough.

USC turned in another defensive clinic. After holding Stanford to 46 on Sunday, the Women of Troy held WSU to an even smaller point total. Washington State committed 18 turnovers, grabbed only five offensive rebounds, made only five 3-pointers (out of 16), and made only three free throws. USC continued to excel at not giving up easy baskets or foul shots. WSU needed to beat the Trojans from the perimeter, and the Cougars couldn’t get the job done.

USC moves to 14-4 on the season, 4-3 in the Pac-12. The Trojans next play Washington on Sunday afternoon in Seattle.

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Central keys to USC-Washington State bubble battle in Pullman

USC-Washington State is a bubble-licious game for the Trojans and Cougars. Here are a few central keys to this battle between two teams fighting for an NCAA bid.

USC-Washington State is a Pac-12 bubble game — not an elimination game, probably more of a “winner looks really good” game. Both teams are going to have chances to accumulate more high-quality wins over the next five weeks. Therefore, both teams should feel relatively optimistic about being able to play their way into the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, though, winning in head-to-head matchups will improve leverage and overall odds in the pursuit of a Big Dance invitation.

We talked to Washington State expert Jeff Nusser about the main keys to this game:

“1. Charlisse Leger-Walker and Destiny Littleton will get the bulk of the attention, but I’m going to turn my attention to the bigs,” Nusser told us. “The Cougs thrive off getting into the paint and finishing around the basket; that’s obviously USC’s greatest strength defensively. To that end, the matchup between Bella Murekatete and Rayah Marshall will be huge.

“2. That said, Leger-Walker and Littleton will have plenty to say. I haven’t watched much of Littleton, but her stats profile similarly to Leger-Walker. The winning team probably gets the better performance from their star, particularly if Leger-Walker is on point from deep and finding open teammates around the arc.

“3. The turnovers – USC generates a lot of them. WSU is going to have a hard enough time scoring points that they can’t afford lots of empty possessions.”

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Washington State has dynamic, versatile players who can give USC problems

Washington State WBB analysts will tell you the Cougars have two standout players who can cause headaches for Lindsay Gottlieb’s Trojans.

Washington State is next for USC on Friday night. It’s the first game for the Trojans since their huge upset of mighty Stanford this past Sunday. This game is a bubble game, and it’s a leverage game between two teams which have a very good chance of making the NCAA Tournament. If both teams make the NCAAs, the Pac-12 will put eight teams in the Big Dance.

We wanted to get some detailed insights on Washington State heading into this game. Jeff Nusser follows WSU closely. He gave us a look at the Cougars’ key players and a few team tendencies:

“Everything starts with Charlisse Leger-Walker,” Nusser told us. “The New Zealander is one of the very best players in the Pac-12, and while she’s always been a potent scorer and tremendous on-ball defender, her all-around game has taken a big step forward this year: 20.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists. She’s running things from the point – taking over those reins from her now-graduated sister – and controlling games on the offensive end.

“That said, the biggest reason why the Cougs probably are better than either of the last two years is the development of Bella Murekatete. She’s 6-foot-3, athletic, and a problem for teams on both ends of the floor … when she’s not in foul trouble, which has been less of an issue this year than in her first couple of seasons. She would definitely be someone I would consider an x-factor. Her finishing around the basket has improved greatly (averaged 10.2 points last season to 14.2 this season), and she changes opponents’ shots with her length (about 1.5 blocks per game). If she plays 30 minutes, that’s great news for WSU.

“I’d identify two weaknesses (with WSU). First off, the Cougs can sometimes get kinda turnover crazy – it’s what nearly did them in against Oregon. Second, WSU isn’t a real deep team. They basically run a seven-player rotation, with six players getting the bulk of the minutes. It hasn’t been much of a problem this year, but I suppose the potential is there if they run into foul trouble.”

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UCLA trails for nearly the whole game but sneaks past Washington State in final 20 seconds

Once again, Washington State failed to close out a winnable game. Once again, UCLA escaped. It’s not what USC wanted. The Trojans meet Wazzu on Sunday.

USC and its fans really wanted Washington State to beat UCLA on Friday night in Pullman. Washington State would have had less urgency against the Trojans if it could have scored a victory against UCLA. Also, a Bruin loss would have given USC an instant opening in the Pac-12 race.

The Cougars certainly made the Bruins sweat … but that’s as far as they got. They couldn’t lock up the Bruins and throw away the key. The Cougars allowed UCLA to slip away with a 67-66 win on Friel Court inside Beasley Coliseum.

UCLA led for a total of one minute and 27 seconds in this game. The contest was either led by Washington State or tied for the other 38 minutes and 33 seconds. Unfortunately for Wazzu — with led by nine points with 6:30 left and still led by three with 55 seconds to go — could not score down the stretch. WSU didn’t hit a single field goal attempt in the final 7:23, and UCLA scored a go-ahead bucket with 19 seconds on the clock. The Bruins preserved their lead on a final, frantic Washington State possession to get out of town with a win on a night when they didn’t play well.

USC faces Washington State on Sunday at noon Pacific time on Pac-12 Network.

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UCLA vs Washington State College Basketball Prediction, Game Preview, Lines, How To Watch

UCLA vs Washington State prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch, lines, and why each team might – or might not – win on Thursday.

UCLA vs Washington State prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch: Thursday, March 10


UCLA vs Washington State Game Preview, Pac-12 Tournament How To Watch

Date: Thursday, March 10
Game Time: 9:00 ET
Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
How To Watch: Pac-12 Network
Record: Washington State (19-13), UCLA (23-6)
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USC vs Washington State Prediction, College Basketball Game Preview

USC vs Washington State prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch, lines, and why each team might – or might not – win on Sunday.

USC vs Washington State prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch: Sunday, February 20


USC vs Washington State How To Watch

Date: Sunday, February 20
Game Time: 7:30 ET
Venue: Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA
How To Watch: FS1
Record: USC (22-4), Washington State (14-11)
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USC vs Washington State Game Preview


Why Washington State Will Win

The Cougars made it fun way back in early December.

It seems like a million years ago now, but USC slipped by Wazzu 63-61 back on December 4th. There have been a few good moments since then, and the team is on a four game losing streak, but Washington State will throw some things at the Trojans.

USC doesn’t score a ton. It’s not going to show up into the stadium and put up 95 points and run aways with it. Washington State will be in this throughout, and it’ll start with shooting lots and lots of threes.

USC might have the ability to close out on the outside, but Washington State shoots enough to get bulk threes in a game that should be played in the 60s.

Get to ten threes, and look out. However …

– Latest Polls AP | Coaches

Why USC Will Win

Washington State might not be strong enough lately from three, but that’s not necessary the problem. It’s getting the offensive rebounds, and it’s not going to stop bombing away, but it just doesn’t move the ball around well enough to pick up the slack if those outside shots aren’t dropping.

USC’s defense is at its best when it’s able to grab the rebound, settle down, and then move the ball for an easy basket. No, it won’t shoot the threes like Washington State will, but it’ll make about 40% of them – quality will overcome quantity.

There’s that, the rebounds will matter, and …

Top 25 Game Previews, Predictions

What’s Going To Happen

USC was able to win the first time around without hitting a thing from the outside, with a season-worst 2-of-12 beyond the arc.

Washington State just isn’t shooting well enough. It’s been miserable from the field over the four-game losing streak, and USC isn’t the team to go against if you’re not making shots.

However, the Cougars will be in this because it’ll be low scoring throughout, but USC will get the rebounds Wazzu won’t.

USC vs Washington State Prediction, Lines

USC 73, Washington State 65
Line: COMING, o/u: COMING
ATS Confidence out of 5: COMING

Must See Rating: 3

5: Myles Garrett – in basketball
1: DC League of Super-Pets

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UCLA vs Washington State Prediction, College Basketball Game Preview

UCLA vs Washington State prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch, lines, and why each team might – or might not – win on Thursday.

UCLA vs Washington State prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch: Thursday, February 17


UCLA vs Washington State How To Watch

Date: Thursday, February 17
Game Time: 11:00 pm ET
Venue: Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA
How To Watch: FS1
Record: UCLA (17-5), Washington State (14-10)
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UCLA vs Washington State Game Preview


Why Washington State Will Win

The Cougars are going to shoot threes and they’re going to keep shooting threes.

They might not be winning lately, but they have a nice mix to bother UCLA with all the threes they jack up along with the ability to hit the offensive boards to clean up some of the messes.

On the flip side, UCLA doesn’t do a whole lot from three and that’s been a bit of a problem in this run of three losses in the last four games. The offense hasn’t been bad, but the shooting has been a grind lately.

However …

– Latest Polls AP | Coaches

Why UCLA Will Win

UCLA is finally back at home.

It’s not like the trip down the road to USC is anything major, but that was the fourth straight road game with the last home game back in January.

Yes, UCLA has to get the offense going, and yes, it needs to be a bit more consistent at getting to the free throw line and has to start hitting at least 40% from the field, but this is all about stopping the Wazzu threes.

Washington State doesn’t win when it doesn’t make at least 38% from three – going 2-8 when it doesn’t get more than that – and UCLA has kept teams from getting there 13 times. However …

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What’s Going To Happen

The Washington State offense travels.

Obviously teams shoot better in familiar surroundings, but the Cougars do what they do when it comes to bombing away going 5-2 on the road.

They haven’t played anyone like UCLA away from Pullman, though.

UCLA will have to withstand a few big Wazzu scoring bursts, but there will be other long stretches when those threes aren’t dropping.

The Bruins will be happy to be home.

UCLA vs Washington State Prediction, Lines

UCLA 77, Washington State 70
Line: COMING, o/u: COMING
ATS Confidence out of 5: COMING

Must See Rating: 3

5: 3-on-3 OT hockey
1: Going to a shootout

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Arizona vs Washington State Prediction, College Basketball Game Preview

Arizona vs Washington State prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch, lines, and why each team might – or might not – win on Thursday.

Arizona vs Washington State prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch: Thursday, February 10


Arizona vs Washington State How To Watch

Date: Thursday, February 10
Game Time: 9:00 ET
Venue: Friel Court at Beasley Coliseum, Pullman, WA
How To Watch: FS1
Record: Arizona (20-2), Washington State (14-7)
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Arizona vs Washington State Game Preview


Why Arizona Will Win

The Wildcats have started dominating again.

It might take a spurt or two to get there, but they’re shooting the lights out, rebounding everything, and they’re playing better than anyone in America – at least anyone who’s playing a big conference schedule.

They lead the nation in assists and rebounds, they’re second in the nation in defensive field goal percentage, and they’re doing everything right over the four-game winning run since the loss at UCLA.

On the flip side, Washington State doesn’t generate assists. There’s a lot of three point bombing, lots of plays on the move, and …

– Latest Polls AP | Coaches

Why Washington State Will Win

For all of the great things Arizona does defensively, it’s just okay at guarding the three. Washington State is better at it.

Wazzu is a true 3-and-D team, and it’s working. Colorado has been the only team to get to seven points on the Cougar D since early December.

Teams might be able to hit from the field on this group, but they’re not doing enough from three, and that Colorado team that hung up 83 back in early January was stoned for just 43 points in Friel Court at Beasley.

This is a frustrating team to deal with. if the threes are falling, there’s a big, big problem. However …

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What’s Going To Happen

Washington State’s best win was … Arizona State? That was back on December 1st when the defense held the Sun Devils to 29 points.

To pull this off, the Cougars have to hit ten threes. They’re 9-1 when they do, 5-6 when they don’t, and now they’re stepping up the competition by a mile.

They’re not going to rebound all that well, but the defense and style will clamp down just enough to keep this close until late.

Arizona vs Washington State Prediction, Lines

Arizona 76, Washington State 69
Line: Arizona -6, o/u: 143.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 3.5

5: Sports with a ball
1: Sports that rely on judges and opinions, unlike college football with its playoff system that … never mind.

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