Tag: Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (61-67) host the Washington Nationals (55-72) Saturday at Citi Field for the second game of their three-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Washington won the series opener Friday 2-1 in what was New York’s fourth straight game it has scored 2 or fewer runs. All the Nationals needed was a 2-run 3rd inning to win the contest.

Season series: Tied 6-6.

LHP Sean Nolin makes his third start for the Nationals. Nolin is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA (7 IP, 7 ER), 14 H, 3 BB and 7 K across starts at the Mets (Aug. 12) and at the Milwaukee Brewers (Sunday).

RHP Marcus Stroman is New York’s projected starter. Stroman is 9-12 with a 2.85 ERA (145 1/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 26 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K at the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday.
  • Stroman is 1-1 against Washington this season with a 4.82 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 4 BB and 12 K in two starts.
  • vs. Nationals on the current roster (56 PA): 4.03 FIP with a .280 batting average, .346 wOBA, .451 expected slugging percentage, 25.0 K% and 87.1 mph exit velocity.

Nationals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:37 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Mets -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-120) | Mets -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Mets 4, Nationals 2

Money line (ML)

PASS even though New York is the right side because there’s no way Mets (-220) has any value based on their recent form.

However, New York is still nine games above .500 at home this season, Washington is 15 games below .500 on the road and the Mets have a sizable edge in pitching.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the METS -1.5 (-105) for a one-third unit despite the Mets being 14-33 ATS as a home favorite and the Nationals 25-23 ATS as a road underdog. Also, New York’s lineup is 18th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching.

That said, Stroman is the far better starter and Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in K-BB%, xFIP and SIERA following the All-Star Game.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (+105) for a half unit because we are a little late to the party as the Nationals-Mets opened with an 8.5-run total before both “sharp” and public money steamed it down the current number.

Furthermore, New York is 13-29-3 O/U as a home favorite, 21-30-2 O/U vs. NL East teams and 8-15 O/U when Stroman gets the start. The Under has cashed in Stroman’s last five starts as a favorite.

On top of that, the Mets are 7-13-2 O/U as a money line home favorite of -150 or greater with an average total of 7.0 runs scored. Also, Citi Field has the second-lowest runs scored by park factors in the majors.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (54-72) stop by Citi Field Friday to start a three-game series with the New York Mets (61-66); first pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Washington has lost two straight road series and four of its last five games against the Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers.

New York lost six of its last seven games to the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers and has dropped 11 of its last 13 games.

Season series: Mets lead 6-5.

RHP Paolo Espino is Washington’s projected starter. He is 3-4 with a 4.28 ERA (75 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 12 starts and 16 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Washington’s 9-6 loss against the Brewers Saturday.
  • Espino is 1-0 against New York this season with 7 IP 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 3 K in two starts and one relief outing.

LHP Rich Hill is on the mound for the Mets. He is 6-5 with a 4.13 ERA (122 IP, 56 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 24 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 2 K Saturday at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • Hill lost to Washington June 29 (4-3) while pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays with a stat line of 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K.

Nationals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Mets -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-130) | Mets -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 5

Money line (ML)

PASS even though I agree with New York being a sizeable favorite here because the Mets (-200) are a little too expensive given how terrible they’ve been over the past month.

New York is just 9-21 over its last 30 games, which is the same previous 30-game mark as Washington, but the Mets were first in the NL East before their freefall whereas the Nationals were sellers at the trade deadline.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the NATIONALS +1.5 (-130) for a half unit because Washington is a much wiser wager in this spot.

The Nationals are 24-23 ATS as road underdogs and 28-28 ATS vs. NL East teams. While the Mets are 14-32 ATS as home favorites despite being 29-17 outright as a home favorite. They’re also just 20-32 ATS against divisional foes.

It’s only a “lean” toward Washington because the Nationals’ bullpen has the worst WAR, xFIP, K-BB% and SIERA in the second half.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a half unit because of the aforementioned struggles with Washington’s bullpen and the Nationals’ hitting numbers against left-handed pitching. For example, Washington’s lineup ranks second in wRC+ and first in wOBA against left-handed pitching.

However, my reason for just “leaning” to the Over is most of the applicable situational trends point to this being a lower-scoring affair and the sharps are backing the Under while the public is betting the Over, according to Pregame.com.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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