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The Washington Commanders (11-5) and Dallas Cowboys (7-9) meet Sunday in the final day of the regular season. Kickoff from AT&T Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Commanders vs. Cowboys odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Commanders enter on a 4-game win streak. They locked up a playoff spot with a 30-24 overtime victory as 3.5-point home favorites against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17 — with the Over (46.5) hitting. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels was electric, racking up 354 total yards (227 passing, 127 rushing) and 3 passing TDs. Two of those scores, including the game-winner in OT, went to TE Zach Ertz (6 catches, 72 yards).
Dallas had a 2-game win streak end in Week 17 with a 41-7 blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys didn’t cover as 7.5-point road underdogs and the Over (37.5) cashed. Philly RB Saquon Barkley ran wild, piling up 167 yards on 31 carries — but no TDs. Dallas QB Cooper Rush had a rough day with just 147 passing yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions.
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Commanders at Cowboys odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:07 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Commanders -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Cowboys +230 (bet $100 to win $230)
- Against the spread (ATS): Commanders -6.5 (-115) | Cowboys +6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Commanders at Cowboys key injuries
Commanders
- C Tyler Biadasz (ankle) doubtful
- RB Austin Ekeler (concussion) questionable
- CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) out
- OL Cornelius Lucas (groin) doubtful
- WR K.J. Osborn (illness) questionable
Cowboys
- OL Chuma Edoga (toe) questionable
- DL Mazi Smith (pelvis) questionable
- LB Nick Vigil (foot) questionable
- S Donovan Wilson (knee) questionable
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Commanders at Cowboys picks and predictions
Prediction
Commanders 28, Cowboys 20
Moneyline
PASS.
The Commanders (-275) will win, but I won’t bet 2.75 units to win one. Look to the spread instead.
Against the spread
BET COMMANDERS -6.5 (-115).
Coach Dan Quinn confirmed the Commanders will roll with their starters in Week 18. A win secures the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoffs, sending Washington to Los Angeles to face the Rams — a much better matchup than another trip to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles for a third time this season.
Washington is also looking for payback after a 34-26 home loss as 11-point favorites to Dallas in Week 12. The Cowboys aren’t the same team anymore, especially offensively. QB Dak Prescott is out for the season, WR CeeDee Lamb has been shut down, and RB Ezekiel Elliott was just released.
The Commanders have covered 3 of their last 4 games, while the Cowboys have failed to cover in 7 of their last 11.
With momentum on their side and plenty to play for, WASHINGTON -6.5 (-115) should close the regular season with a big win.
Over/Under
BET OVER 44 (-110).
The trends in this one are tough to ignore.
The Commanders have hit the Over in 4 of their last 5 games, while the Cowboys cashed Over tickets in 6 of their last 7. Both teams are 11-5 O/U for the season.
The recent matchups between the rivals back it up as well as the Over has hit in their last 3 meetings, including the upset in Week 12.
Daniels has been on a tear with 13 TD passes in his last 4 games. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has given up 8 passing TDs in that same stretch. OVER 44 (-110) feels like the right call here.
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