Tag: Warriors Celtics odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Boston Celtics try to keep their season alive when they host the Golden State Warriors Thursday at TD Garden Arena for Game 6 of the NBA Finals. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET (ABC) with Golden State leading the best-of-7 series 3-2. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State can win its 4th NBA title in 8 years after Monday’s 104-94 home win in Game 5.

The Celtics lost by double digits despite grabbing 8 more rebounds than the Warriors (47-39), hitting 2 additional 3-pointers (11-9), attempting 16 more free throws (31-15) and holding Steph Curry to a series-worst 16 points on 31.8% shooting (0-for-9 from behind the arc).

The Warriors are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in this series, but they’ve split the “four factors” with the Celtics and the total is 2-3 Over/Under (O/U).

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: 2022 NBA Finals Game 6 betting breakdown

Warriors at Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:06 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Warriors +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Celtics -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
• Against the spread: Warriors +3.5 (-105) | Celtics -3.5 (-120)
• Over/Under: 209.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Warriors at Celtics key injuries

Celtics

• C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

Warriors

• SF Otto Porter Jr. (foot) questionable
• F Andre Iguodala (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Warriors at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 109, Celtics 102

Money line

SPRINKLE on the WARRIORS (+140) with the plan of hitting Golden State’s spread harder. Generally, the spread doesn’t come into play and the team that covers the spread also usually wins the game outright.

But, I have a hunch the spread could come into play in Games 6 and 7 (if necessary). By taking Golden State plus the points, there could be a “middle” or “hedge” opportunity by betting Boston in-game if the Warriors get up big early.

That said, Golden State is the right side because Boston’s half-court offense has been rife with mistakes in this series. The Celtics’ clumsy ball security was an issue again in Game 5 as Boston committed 12 more turnovers than the Warriors (18-6).

The bottom line is it feels like the Celtics are out of moves. Boston’s half-court offense consists of setting screens for either Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in hopes of getting them 1-on-1 with a smaller defender. The thing is Tatum and Brown keep turning the ball over in those scenarios.

Tatum infamously broke the record for the most turnovers committed in a postseason during Game 5. Boston’s 2 All-Star wings typically settle for long, contested 2-pointers since the Celtics don’t have a true floor general to help generate quality looks for the offense.

Due to officiating, a possible hot-3-point shooting night from the Celtics or an off-shooting night by the Warriors, Golden State’s spread is the sharper play.

But SPRINKLE on the WARRIORS (+140) to close out the NBA Finals in Boston.

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Against the spread

Definitely BET the WARRIORS +4.5 (-120) ALTERNATE LINE instead of or heavier than their ML based on the previous analysis.

Even though the spread doesn’t impact most playoff games and typically the team that covers the spread just wins outright.

I’d rather spend a little extra for an additional point than bet a cheaper Golden State spread +3.5 (-105). Also, Boston is just 5-6 ATS at home in these playoffs.

Finally, we have a contrarian angle with the Warriors because a majority of the public is betting on the Celtics according to Tipico Sportsbook.

The WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in Game 6.

Over/Under

PASS.

There isn’t a big enough gap between my numbers and the market’s projected score to take a stab at the total.

If anything, I “lean” to the Over 209.5 (-112) because the Under 209.5 (-108) feels like a “fake sharp” wager. Everyone understands playoff games play slower as the series extends but that logic is already “baked into the number.”

More importantly, there’s too much firepower and both teams have high 3-point attempt rates. If either team gets down big then the pace will pick up, which should lead to a turn of 3-pointers from either team.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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The Boston Celtics host the Golden State Warriors Friday at the TD Garden for Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET (ABC) and Boston leads the best-of-7 series 2-1. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Celtics Game 4 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston boat raced Golden State 116-100 in Game 3 Wednesday, outscoring the Warriors in 3 of the 4 quarters and outperforming them in 3 of the “4 factors”.

Warriors’ 2-time MVP Stephen Curry is scoring a Finals-best 31.3 points per game, but the Celtics are leading all “4 factors” and have 5 rotation players shooting 40.0% or better from behind the arc in this series.

The Celtics are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) in this series, and the total is 2-1 Over/Under (O/U).

Warriors at Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Warriors +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Celtics -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
• Against the spread: Warriors +3.5 (-107) | Celtics -3.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Warriors at Celtics key injuries

Celtics

• C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

Warriors

• PG Stephen Curry (ankle) probable
• SF Otto Porter Jr. (foot) questionable
• SG Andre Iguodala (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Warriors at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 111, Celtics 105

Money line

LEAN towards a “sprinkle” on the WARRIORS (+133), but Golden State plus the points is the much better option.

Most of the “talking heads” are out on the Warriors and think the Celtics (-165) are going to cakewalk to a title.

Curry tweaked his ankle scrambling for a loose ball, the Celtics overwhelmed the Warriors in Game 3 athletically and beat Golden State by double-digits despite Klay Thompson and Steph combining for 56 points.

However, it was only 1 game, and if there is any team that could recover from a blowout loss in the playoffs, it’s Golden State. Curry and Thompson could both erupt, and Warriors wing Andrew Wiggins and SG Jordan Poole have the talent to step up and hit big shots.

The bottom line is there are too many convenient arguments for the Celtics, and it feels too obvious. There’s a smidge of value on the WARRIORS (+133), but their spread is a sharper play.

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Against the spread

BET the WARRIORS +3.5 (-107).

There’s a line freeze in the betting market as 75% of the action and nearly 90% of the cash is on the Celtics -3.5 (-115), according to Tipico Sportsbook.

But, that number hasn’t budged off the opener, and Boston being more expensive despite the betting splits is suspicious, to say the least.

Also, there’s something to be said about the theory of “the NBA wants a longer series”. So, whether it be organic or funky, Golden State could get the benefit of the whistles Friday.

The WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.

Something to consider: If betting Golden State’s spread, look to bet Boston in-game should the Warriors get up double-digits since this would lead to a fat “middle” opportunity.

Over/Under

BET 1 unit on the FIRST-HALF OVER 108.5 (-120).

There has been a lot of landslide victories in these playoffs, and the pace dies down majorly in blowouts. Warriors-Celtics Game 3 was trending to go way Over the total, but there were just 34 points scored in the fourth quarter because Boston had the game in hand.

There are a bunch of stylistic factors that could lead to a fast tempo and a ton of offense in Game 4. Boston’s best frontcourt defender — big Robert Williams III — has dealt with a knee injury for weeks and might be limited with only a day off in between Games 3 and 4.

The Celtics are overwhelming the Warriors athletically, and Golden State’s best counter is to pick up the pace and try to create transition 3-pointers. Also, I don’t think Boston’s defense is going to shut down Klay and Steph, and several Warriors are due for bounce-back performances.

BET the FIRST-HALF OVER 108.5 (-120) because playoff games turn into half-court slug matches in the 2nd half.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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The NBA Finals head to Beantown Wednesday for Game 3 when the Golden State Warriors play the Boston Celtics. The series is tied 1-1. Tip-off at TD Garden is set for 9 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Celtics Game 3 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State evened the series by stomping Boston 107-88 in Game 2 Sunday. The Warriors had their patent 3rd quarter onslaught, outscoring the Celtics 35-14 and Steph Curry erupted for a game-high 29 points (5-for-12 from behind the arc) with 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals.

Boston’s All-Star wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown struggled in the Bay Area, both shooting 37.5% or less from the field with Tatum averaging 20.5 points per game (PPG) and Brown putting up just 20.0 PPG.

These teams are tied 1-1 against the spread (ATS) in this series, have split the “four factors” and the total is 1-1 Over/Under (O/U).

Warriors at Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:53 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Warriors +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Celtics -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +3.5 (-110) | Celtics -3.5 (-110)
• Over/Under (O/U): 212.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Warriors at Celtics key injuries

Celtics

• C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

Warriors

• None

[tipico]

Warriors at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 113, Warriors 106

Money line

LEAN CELTICS (-160) only because I prefer to lay the points with Boston at a cheaper price.

However, the Celtics have avenged all six of their playoff losses this year with wins and have an average margin of victory of 15.5 PPG in those contests.

After all the hoopla in the media about the referees between Games 2 and 3, the Celtics should get more favorable officiating now that the series is back in Boston.

A few prominent Celtics sycophants in sports media were bemoaning Warriors PF Draymond Green‘s aggressiveness and intensity in Game 2. It wouldn’t be surprising for the officials to give Draymond an early technical foul to try and control the game.

Furthermore, Golden State struggled to stay out of foul trouble during the regular season and ranked 23rd in non-garbage time defensive free-throw rate, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

The Celtics attempted just 3 field goals at the rim in Game 2 and bricked a bunch of contested mid-range jumpers. Boston’s offense should attack the paint more and put pressure on the referees to make calls.

Boston also peed down its leg in Game 2 with an absurd 23.4% non-garbage time turnover rate (TOV%) compared to Golden State’s 10.4% TOV%. The Warriors outscored the Celtics 33-15 in points off of turnovers in Game 2.

Boston’s mistakes are very correctable but it’s only a LEAN to the CELTICS (-160) because their spread provides a better value.

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Against the spread

BET CELTICS -3.5 (-110) based on the prior rationale and because the team that wins outright also covers the spread a vast majority of the time.

Boston has covered 12 of its last 14 games following an outright loss and is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. the Warriors. There’s also a notable line freeze in the betting market.

More than 70% of the cash is on Golden State according to Tipico Sportsbook, but this line hasn’t budged off the opener. Oddsmakers typically adjust the line according to the market movement so that not happening here suggests the House wants more pro-Warriors money.

BET CELTICS -3.5 (-110).

Over/Under

BET OVER 212.5 (-107).

Boston’s best defender in the frontcourt — big Robert Williams III — has battled with a knee injury all postseason and played just 14 minutes in Game 2. If Williams’ health is compromised then it should be easier for the Warriors in the paint.

If Draymond continues playing basketball like football in Game 3 then he’s going to get into foul trouble. Golden State’s defense is much easier to score on when Draymond is off the floor.

Several quality scorers on both benches have struggled through the first 2 games of the Finals. I’m expecting big games out of Brown and Warriors SG Klay Thompson eventually.

Game 2 went Under the total (213.5) by 18.5 points. But, the pace sped up from Game 1 to 2, which went Under because Golden State was spanking Boston and that game died out in the fourth quarter.

We should see a more competitive Game 3 and our OVER 212.5 (-107) ticket could cash on late free throws.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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