The Minnesota Vikings (4-1) look to win their 4th straight game when they go on the road to face the Miami Dolphins (3-2) Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Vikings vs. Dolphins odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Vikings have found ways to win close games this season after going 6-8 in 1-score games last season. They haven’t done it pretty, especially on defense. Minnesota has the 24th-ranked defense and are 29th in the red zone.
However, the Dolphins have been just as shaky on defense and with Tua Tagovailoa ruled out and Teddy Bridgewater still in concussion protocol, the Dolphins will be going 7th-round rookie QB Skylar Thompson making his 1st career start.
Historically, the Vikings have struggled against backup quarterbacks, but Thompson is the 3rd QB on the roster and teams don’t face them very often.
Also see: All Week 6 odds and lines
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Vikings at Dolphins odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:06 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Vikings -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Dolphins +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread (ATS): Vikings -3.5 (+100) | Dolphins +3.5 (-125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Vikings at Dolphins key injuries
Vikings
- RB Alexander Mattison (shoulder) questionable
- DE D.J. Wonnum (illness) questionable
Dolphins
- OT Terron Armstead (toe) questionable
- QB Teddy Bridgewater (concussion/pectoral) questionable
- RB Raheem Mostert (knee) questionable
- QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion/ankle) out
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Vikings at Dolphins picks and predictions
Prediction
Vikings 24, Dolphins 19
Moneyline
PASS.
You have to make too big an investment in the Vikings if you believe they’re going to win. If anything I would put a small wager on Miami because of the return and Minnesota’s storied struggles defensively when playing against backup QBs. But it’s probably best to just avoid this one.
Against the spread
TAKE THE VIKINGS AND LAY 3.5 POINTS (+100).
The rationale seems to be that the Dolphins (+3.5 points at -125) are the bet to make because of the investment needed, but Thompson completed 19 passes for just 166 yards and almost all his passes were short throws within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.
Minnesota is healthy, while Miami is not only starting its 3rd-string QB, but their Pro Bowl tackle (Armstead) didn’t practice all week and their featured running back (Mostert) was limited.
Minnesota has found ways to win close games this season and the Dolphins are setting them up for another opportunity to steal a victory.
Over/Under
BET THE UNDER 45.5 (-110).
It’s hard to imagine that teams with the explosive talent of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook wouldn’t be able to put points on the board, but Miami’s offense got blown out by the Jets last week and this has the potential to be a game a field position more than a scoring fest.
There is the chance the teams will string together enough big plays to hit the Over, but this one has the look of a game that will have as many or more field goals than touchdowns.
More NFL Week 6 odds, picks and predictions
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