The two No. 1 seeds — San Francisco in the NFC and Baltimore in the AFC — arrive to the postseason dance looking to tango the first Sunday in February. They’ll take their first steps in their hopeful collision course against a pair of No. 6 seeds in Minnesota and Tennessee, respectively.
With No. 6 seeds having lost 11 of the last 12 meetings against No. 1 seeds, the chances of the 49ers and Ravens moving on look good.
But we’re not looking at final scores here. We’re looking at individual yardage prop bets that we think have a good chance of hitting.
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These are our Fab Four for the Saturday games.
NFL odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Saturday at 12:30 a.m. ET.
Hands off Jimmy! Don’t Touch Jimmy!
Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo has a pretty solid over/under for passing yards at 254.5 (-112 for both the over and the under). Despite Minnesota’s secondary being thinned by injury, this one seems about 20-30 yards too high (which is a lot). Minnesota won’t blow out the Niners, but San Francisco could blow out the Vikings. If so, expect the 49ers to run the ball more. If it is a defense-dominated game, both offenses will do what they do best — run the ball. Jimmy G is making his first playoff start and he’s likely going to come out cautious by design. He has hit over this number in just three of his last 11 games. TAKE UNDER 254.5 for too many reasons.
Dalvin and the Chest Bumps
Dalvin Cook has an interesting line for rushing yards at 69.5. Most yardage props come in with the same bet for the over and the under. Cook’s rushing line is -125 for the over and -106 for the under. Why? Vegas wants you to bet the under. Anyone who has seen Cook play this season, he isn’t breaking off a lot of 40- or 50-yard runs, but he has a lot in the 10-20 range. At this number, Cook likely needs just two or three of those splash play runs to hit the over. Unless the Vikings fall behind by 14 or more early on, Cook will get 15-20 rushes. He can hit 70 with ease if that happens. TAKE THE OVER.
Henry Err-Run
Titans running back Derrick Henry has a pretty stiff number for the over/under for rushing yards at 93.5 (-112 for both the over and under). But there is a number even more imposing — 128-31. That is the combined scores of the first quarter in the Ravens’ 16 regular-season games. Baltimore has routinely built early leads and expanded on them — the Ravens scored 294 first-half points. Tennessee has scored 146 first-half points. If those numbers come even close to replicating Saturday night, Tennessee will have to abandon the run at some point. Seeing as Henry isn’t viewed as the best receiving back on the team, Tennessee will have to keep the game close for three quarters to hit that number. TAKE THE UNDER.
Heady Lamar
The Ravens’ run game will be fine whether or not Mark Ingram plays. It’s what they do. But, the Titans are likely to leave themselves open to a big play over the top and few QBs can flick 50-yard passes with the ease that Lamar Jackson can. His over/under for passing yards is 213.5 yards (-112 for both over and under). The Ravens are going to look to take advantage of the perception that all they do is run. In the last nine games, Jackson has thrown 25 or fewer passes in eight of them. If he’s going to get over that number, he will need to have a lot of yards per completion. But, at 213.5 against a defense willing to force him to pass, it LOOKS GOOD FOR THE OVER.
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