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The 12th-seeded VCU Rams (27-7) take on the 5-seed Saint Mary’s Gaels (26-7) in a first round NCAA Tournament game in Albany, N.Y., on Friday at 2 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the VCU vs. Saint Mary’s odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Saint Mary’s lost in the WCC title game to Gonzaga while VCU won the Atlantic-10 Tournament. VCU is on a 9-game winning streak and will look to continue it against one of the best defensive teams in the nation.
Saint Mary’s ranks 6th in the country allowing just 59.3 points a game. The Gaels like to slow down the game to a snail’s pace and make it difficult for opponents to gain any continuity on offense. Lucky for VCU, it is also a slow-paced team and the defense of the Rams will be up to the challenge.
The Rams’ defense ranks 26th in the nation allowing just 63 PPG. This will ensure a low-scoring, slow game and whichever defense can get the last stop just might be the winner and moving on to the next round against either Iona or UConn.
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VCU vs. Saint Mary’s odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 9:07 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): VCU +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Saint Mary’s -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): VCU +4.5 (-118) | Saint Mary’s -4.5 (-102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 122.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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VCU vs. Saint Mary’s picks and predictions
Prediction
Saint Mary’s 65, VCU 63
Moneyline
PASS.
While -190 on Saint Mary’s is not totally out of line, the confidence you should have for the Gaels to prevail is. VCU is running hot and could easily hold down the Gaels to win this game. Staying away from the moneyline entirely is the safest bet here.
Against the spread
VCU +4.5 (-115).
Since starting the season 10-5, the Rams have won 9 in a row and 17 of the last 19 games. Saint Mary’s, after starting strong, has faded just a bit down the stretch and come into this game after losing the WCC title game to Gonzaga after also losing to the Zags in the regular-season finale.
While the Gaels have been battle-tested, the Rams and their defense will be able to hold up against an equally good defense for Saint Mary’s and keep this game close to the end so 4.5 points is too much. Give me the underdog to cover.
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Over/Under
OVER 122.5 (-108).
Both teams rank top 30 in total defense. But this number is just a few points too low.
VCU has gone Over the total in 6 of its last 7 games and Saint Mary’s has gone Over the total in 4 of 5 games following an ATS loss.
While neither team will be a lights-out scoring team, both should get into the 60s. And that’s all that is needed for this total to hit.
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