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The VCU Rams (19-11, 11-6 A-10) and Dayton Flyers (23-6, 13-4) meet Friday in the regular-season finale in Atlantic-10 Conference play. Tip-off at UD Arena will be at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the VCU vs. Dayton odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Virginia Commonwealth is coming off a sloppy Tuesday home loss to Duquesne and has lost 2 in a row. VCU was outscored 28-18 over the final 15 minutes of a 69-59 setback to the Dukes, who were 5-point underdogs.
Dayton scored a season-high 100 points in covering a 9 1/2-point spread at Saint Louis Tuesday. Riding an 18-of-33 performance from beyond the arc, the Flyers defeated the Billikens 100-83 and snapped a 3-game road losing skid that began at VCU Feb. 9.
The Rams defeated the Flyers 49-47 as a 2-point underdog in that game last month. VCU is 3-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread (ATS) across the last 4 series meetings.
– Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
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VCU at Dayton odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:29 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: VCU +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Dayton -375 (bet $375 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): VCU +7.5 (-105) | Dayton -7.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 137.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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VCU at Dayton picks and predictions
Prediction
Dayton 69, VCU 63
Moneyline
No value here; move along. PASS.
Against the spread
The Rams are 11-6 ATS in league play. Dayton has gone 4-8 ATS when looking to earn back-to-back A-10 straight-up wins.
VCU has had the Flyers’ number in recent years. Against the number, the Rams are 3-1 since 2023 and 7-2 since 2021. At UD Arena, Virginia Commonwealth is 4-1 ATS across its last 5 visits.
The Rams are solid defensively, especially defending the outside shot. That figures to loom large in this contest.
Expect a Dayton win in the 5-to-8-point range. So, the leverage here isn’t great, but VCU +7.5 (-105) is on the value side of the ledger.
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Over/Under
The Under is 6-2 across VCU’s 8 road games. And the Under is 5-1 in the last half-dozen games of this series.
The Under 135 easily cashed in the Feb. 9 meeting. And recent VCU games against the A-10’s best teams have resulted in a decided Under lean.
Friday’s Rams-Flyers tilt seems destined for a slow pace and dogged attention to shooters along the perimeter.
TAKE THE UNDER 137.5 (-110).
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