Vanderbilt at Missouri odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Vanderbilt at Missouri odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The No. 8 Missouri Tigers (3-0, 0-0 SEC) welcome the Vanderbilt Commodores (2-1, 0-0) to Memorial Stadium for a conference clash Saturday. Kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Vanderbilt vs. Missouri odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Missouri opened the season witha 51-0 win against the Murray State Racers and then a 38-0 win over the Buffalo Bulls. The Tigers had a closer call with Boston College in Week 3, winning 27-21. Missouri is 2-1 against the spread (ATS), having played all 3 games at home. It is 0-3 O/U as well.

Vanderbilt opened its season with a surprise 34-27 win over the Virginia Tech Hokies as a 13-point underdog. It then beat Alcorn State 55-0 and had a surprise Week 3 loss to Georgia State 36-32. Vanderbilt is 0-1 ATS on the road and 1-0 ATS as an underdog. The Commodores QBs have yet to throw an INT, having accumulated 560 yards and 5 TDs.

Missouri is No. 8 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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Vanderbilt at Missouri odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 6:12 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Vanderbilt +900 (bet $100 to win $900) | Missouri -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Vanderbilt +20.5 (-115) | Missouri -20.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Vanderbilt at Missouri picks and predictions

Prediction

Missouri 41, Vanderbilt 17

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s no reason to play Missouri (-1600) to win outright at home, especially considering Vanderbilt (+900) has played better than expected this season. The Tigers are too expensive to play on the moneyline.

Against the spread

BET MISSORUI -20.5 (-105).

The Tigers have destroyed opponents this season, especially when they’re favored by 20 points or more. Missouri is 2-0 ATS when a favorite by that number. While the Tigers beat Boston College by just 6, they did end with  120 more rushing yards. They were the better side and arguably should’ve won by enough to cover.

Similarly, Vanderbilt is coming off its worst game of the season and lost as an 8.5-point favorite. It has yet to play a team of Missouri’s caliber. It lost every road game last season and lost its last 4 on the road by 20 or more.

Expect the Tigers to come out on top with ease and back MISSOURI -20.5 (-105).

Over/Under

BET OVER 52.5 (-110).

This game is a battle between 2 polar opposites. The Commodores are 3-0 O/U while the Tigers are 0-2 O/U. The Commodores have scored 30 points or more in all 3 games and have allowed 27 points or more in 2 of 3.

The Tigers have a dynamic offense and have scored at least 38 points in 2 of 3 and 27 points or more in all 3. Missouri, in its lone game against a Power 4 side, gave up 21 points as well. Expect a high-scoring battle.

Play OVER 52.5 (-110).

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Vanderbilt at Missouri odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Vanderbilt Commodores at Missouri Tigers sports betting odds and lines, with college football betting picks, tips and predictions.

The Vanderbilt Commodores (0-7 overall, 0-7 SEC) hope to get their first win of the season when they visit the Missouri Tigers (3-3, 3-3) Saturday for a noon ET kickoff. Below, we analyze the Vanderbilt-Missouri college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Vanderbilt at Missouri: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:24 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Vanderbilt +425 (bet $100 to win $425) | Missouri -589 (bet $589 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Vanderbilt +14.5 (-115) | Missouri -14.5 (-106)
  • Over/Under: 50.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Vanderbilt at Missouri: Three things to know

  1. Vanderbilt got rolled last week 38-17 by Florida but covered as a 31.5-point dog. Taking a glass half-full approach to looking at Vanderbilt’s winless season thus far, the Commodores have covered three straight games and are 4-3 ATS on the season. Vanderbilt PK Sarah Fuller would become the first female to play for a Power 5 football program in college football history if she takes the field Saturday.
  2. Missouri came out of a 3-week COVID-caused bye to beat South Carolina 17-10 last week, covering as a 4.5-point favorite. First-year head coach Eliah Drinkwitz took over the Tigers program following one season as the Appalachian State head coach. Drinkwitz went 12-1 at Appalachian State and the Mountaineers were ranked as high as No. 19 last season.
  3. The Commodores snapped a 3-game losing streak to the Tigers last season with a 21-14 win as 21-point underdogs.

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Vanderbilt at Missouri: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Missouri 27, Vanderbilt 17

Money line (ML)

It would be a real alpha move on my part to take Vanderbilt to get its first win of the season. Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason’s job is in serious jeopardy as he’s yet to have a winning season since taking over the program from James Franklin in 2014.

But the Commodores’ motivation to avoid going winless isn’t a strong enough angle for me to take a flyer on the underdogs. No way I’m risking nearly six times my potential return to bet Missouri.

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE. 

Against the spread (ATS)

The only way to play this is taking the conference foe plus the points so I lean VANDERBILT +14.5 (-115). I don’t know what BetMGM sees in Missouri to make it even a two-touchdown favorite. Outside of Missouri’s rush defense, there isn’t a unit on either team that’s above average.

I’d even take Missouri’s rush defense results with a grain of salt considering it hasn’t play top-notch rush offenses. Vanderbilt has some trends backing it: The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as road underdogs and the Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.

Officially, I lean VANDERBILT +14.5 (-115) for a half-unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

Give me UNDER 50.5 (-110) for 1.5 units. The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 Vanderbilt-Missouri meetings and 13-3 in Tigers’ last 16 games as favorites.

Missouri’s offensive line hasn’t gotten much push this year: The Commodores rank 114th in opponent’s line yards per carry, 106th in both opponent’s opportunity rate and stuff rate. This leads me to believe Missouri’s offense could be one-dimensional even against a terrible Vanderbilt defense.

Again, I don’t know why anyone would be confident in a Missouri pass game that is 51st in the nation in passing yards per game. Something tells me Vanderbilt’s defense shows up Saturday vs. Missouri.

Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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