Previewing UFC 247’s women’s flyweight title bout between Valentina Shevchenko and Katlyn Chookagian, with MMA betting odds and picks.
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Valentina Shevchenko and Katlyn Chookagian tangle Saturday at UFC 247 at Toyota Center in Houston. The women’s flyweight title bout is on the main card and on pay-per-view (to watch, sign up for ESPN+ now). Below, we breakdown the Shevchenko-Chookagian fight, with UFC 247 betting odds and picks.
Shevchenko (18-3) is an overwhelming favorite to keep her belt in the title bout against Chookagian (13-2). On paper, she might look like the underdog with a four-inch height disadvantage and a slight reach advantage for Chookagian at 68″ to 66.5″. However, the southpaw feels confident in her abilities to distance herself from the big shot and administer big hits of her own. The stats back that up, as she has an impressive 49.73 significant strike accuracy percentage to 32.98 percent for Chookagian. In addition, if she is able to take the bout to the mat, watch out. She has a 51.28 takedown accuracy percentage and 1.94 takedown average to Chookagian’s zeroes in both categories.
Chookagian will be trying to keep the bout in a toe-to-toe situation, using her advantage in significant strikes landed per minute (4.35 to 3.02). While she is the slightly bigger fighter, Shevchenko has a ton of confidence, experience and if she gets the fight to the canvas, it’s over. Chookagian, a.k.a. the ‘Blonde Fighter’, has won five of her past six bouts since her loss to Liz Carmouche at UFC 205 Nov. 12, 2016; however, she doesn’t do much to excite. Each of her eight bouts since her UFC debut have been decided by judges. While she hasn’t been knocked out or submitted, she hasn’t put anyone on the mat, either.
Shevchenko-Chookagian odds
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Per BetMGM Sportsbook, Shevchenko (-1429) is a tremendous favorite in the flyweight title bout over Chookagian (+650). The oddsmakers also lean to the match going the distance (five rounds), with odds there being set at a -167 for Yes – and the odds to not go a full five rounds at +120.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Chookagian to pull the upset returns $65 in profit. A $10 bet on Shevchenko at -1429 returns a profit of $0.70 with a victory.
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Shevchenko is expected to win, and win rather handily, and betting the 2-way line is not only risky, but not terribly profitable. So let’s look into some alternative wagers to maximize profits.
Shevchenko-Chookagian betting guide
I actually like the odds on the fight not going the full five rounds (+120). If Shevchenko is able to get Chookagian to the mat the American will have no answers. Of course, Chookagian hasn’t had a bout ended by submission or KO/TKO in her UFC career yet, but this is easily her most difficult opponent.
In addition, Shevchenko to win by submission (+350) is worth a roll of the dice. Both of Chookagian’s losses in her career have come via split-decision, and she hasn’t been submitted; however, Shevchenko’s ground game is strong and there is a first time for everything.
I am going to roll the dice, but I am looking for value here. I think Shevchenko has the goods to eventually tire out Chookagian, too. While I am not looking for a quick finish, there is a lot of value in betting Shevchenko to win in Round 4 (+1200). I don’t think it ends earlier than that, and if it gets to five rounds it will go to the judges. Round 4 just seems right. It’s a gut call.
If you also want to toss in a bet on the Total number of rounds – Over/Under going Under 4.5 (+125), there is a lot of value there, too. I mean, there isn’t a lot of wiggle room if you bet the Over (-176), but you have a ton of chance for a quick bout to put you in plus-money.
If you want to watch UFC 247, sign up for ESPN+ and catch all of the action. Speaking of action, if you want to bet on UFC 247, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.
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