In a women’s flyweight championship bout on the main card, Valentina Shevchenko takes on Alexa Grasso Saturday at UFC 285 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 285: Shevchenko vs. Grasso odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 5:30 p.m. ET, with the prelims on ESPNews/ESPN+ starting at 8 p.m. ET. The main card begins on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
Shevchenko lost a title fight by split decision against Amanda Nunes back at UFC 215 in Sept. 2017. She rebounded with a submission win against Priscila Cachoeira in Feb. 2018, and that started a 9-bout win streak.
Shevchenko picked up a unanimous-decision win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk to earn the strap in Dec. 2018 at UFC 231, and she has defended the belt successfully in 7 straight bouts. That includes a split-decision win over Taila Santos last time out at UFC 275 in June 2022. In 4 of her past 7 bouts, Shevchenko has earned KO/TKO victories.
Grasso gets her first crack at a strap, but she enters as a decisive underdog. The Mexican fighter has won 4 straight bouts, with 3 of those ending via unanimous-decision victory. She has gone the distance in 5 of her last 6 fights.
Grasso holds a 5.14-to-3.19 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although the champ is far more accurate at 68.53% to just 53.45% for the challenger. Shevchenko is much better in the takedown game, posting a 2.53 takedown average with a 64.06% takedown accuracy percentage.
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UFC 285: Shevchenko vs. Grasso odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:23 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Shevchenko -800 (bet $800 to win $100) | Grasso +550 (bet $100 to win $550)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over +120 | Under -150)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+125) | No (-170)
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UFC 285: Shevchenko vs. Grasso picks and predictions
Records: Shevchenko (23-3-0) | Grasso (15-3-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Shevchenko (-800) will cost you 8 times your potential return, which is far too expensive for a standalone play or to include in a multi-fighter parlay.
Instead, get a little more specific. METHOD OF VICTORY: SHEVCHENKO BY KO/TKO (+195) for a chance to nearly double up your initial wager is a much more enticing play. She has won 3 of his past 5 fights via KO/TKO, and I like that slightly better than Shevchenko by points (+185).
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (-150) is worth a look, albeit at a rather moderate price.
While Grasso has gone the distance in 5 of the past 6 fights, she hasn’t faced anyone quite as versatile as the champ. Shevchenko can do it with her punching power, as well as her ability on the mat, and should be able to get this one done with a KO/TKO in the Round 3 or 4 neighborhood.
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