The No. 5 seed Utah Jazz (2-2) returns to the Big D Monday after evening their Western Conference first-round series with the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (2-2). Tip-off at American Airlines Center is set for 9:30 p.m. ET and airs on TNT. Below, we look at the Jazz vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Utah tied the series in Game 4 by beating Dallas 100-99 thanks to a Jazz SG Donovan Mitchell-to-C Rudy Gobert alley-oop dunk with seconds remaining to key the victory.
Game 4 was Mavericks All-Star PG Luka Doncic‘s first game in this series after returning from a calf injury. He scored 30 points on 52.4% shooting (4-for-10 from behind the arc) with 10 rebounds.
Jazz at Mavericks odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Jazz +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Mavericks -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Jazz +3.5 (-110) | Mavericks -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 212.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Jazz at Mavericks key injuries
Jazz
- None
Mavericks
- None
[tipico]
Jazz at Mavericks picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 111, Jazz 103
Money line
LEAN MAVERICKS (-160) because I’m confident enough in them to lay the points but wouldn’t hate a Dallas ML wager.
The Mavs are 4-1 straight up (SU) and ATS in their last five home games versus the Jazz dating back to last season including these playoffs. Utah’s lone victory in Dallas over that span was Game 1 of this series when the Mavs were playing without Luka.
The main reason the Jazz won Game 4 was their plus-19 free-throw attempt differential, which will most likely regress now that the series is back in Dallas.
Both teams are top 10 in net efficiency and top 10 in defensive efficiency. However, Dallas has a winning record and plus-ATS margin versus top-10 teams and defenses while Utah has a losing record and minus-ATS margin in those spots, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
It’s only a LEAN to the MAVERICKS (-160) because I’d rather bet their cheaper spread but Dallas will put Utah’s back against the wall with Game 5 victory.
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Against the spread
BET the MAVERICKS -3.5 (-110) for 1 unit based on the previous analysis and because this is a much more profitable spot for Dallas.
The Mavs are 8-4 ATS as 3-to-4.5-point favorites and 27-15 ATS versus teams with a winning record while the Jazz are 10-26-2 ATS versus winning teams. On top of that, Utah’s lone ATS win over Dallas was in Game 1 of this series and by only a half-point.
The MAVERICKS LAYING THE POINTS is my favorite bet in this game unless their ML falls to -140 or lower, at which point I’d take Dallas to win SU.
Over/Under
PASS because the Over has been steamed up by a sharp line move but Jazz-Mavericks is the second-slowest series in the first round and fewer possessions generally mean fewer points unless both teams are shooting well.
Furthermore, Dallas is 5-1 O/U in the last 6 games as a favorite but the Under has cashed in five of the last seven Jazz-Mavericks meetings.
I cannot call it either way so PASS.
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