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The USF Bulls (6-6) and San Jose State Spartans (7-5) meet Tuesday in the Hawaii Bowl at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the USF vs. San Jose State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Bulls were tripped up 35-28 in the regular-season finale at Rice Nov. 30, failing as 5.5-point favorites with the Over (54) cashing. USF is 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past 5 games, while cashing the Over in 3 in a row, and in 5 of the past 6 games.
USF QB Byrum Brown has been sidelined since Sept. 28 in a blowout loss at Tulane. He suffered a lower leg injury, but Brown is getting healthier and might be able to play in this bowl game. That would be a huge lift for USF. As far as the transfer portal or opt outs, the Bulls haven’t been terribly affected going into this game.
For San Jose State, it lost CBs Michael Dansby to Arizona and DJ Harvey to USC. WR Nick Nash has opted out to get ready for the 2025 NFL Draft, too, so that’s a big loss for the Spartans offense. Nash had 104 receptions, 1,382 yards and 16 TDs — all team-highs — while the rest of the receivers had 13 TDs combined.
San Jose State scored a 34-31 win over Stanford in its regular-season finale, covering as a 2.5-point favorite with the Over (55) hitting. Still, the Spartans are 2-6 ATS in the past 8 games, with the Under going 5-2 in the past 7 outings.
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USF vs. San Jose State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Monday at 6:08 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): USF +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | San Jose State -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread: USF +3 (-115) | San Jose State -3 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 63.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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USF vs. San Jose State picks and predictions
Prediction
USF 32, San Jose State 29
Moneyline
USF (+125) is a strong play as moderate underdogs as long as Brown is able to start for the Bulls. All indications are that it is going to be the case.
San Jose State (-150) would be an attractive play if Nash was going to play, even with Brown starting. However, the best player will not be on the field for this bowl game and the Spartans offense should be a shell of itself.
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Against the spread
If you’re on the conservative side, USF +3 (-115) is a decent play catching the points.
The Bulls were impressive in the Boca Raton Bowl last season, roughing up Syracuse 45-0 — USF was a 3-point underdog. The Bulls have won 3 of their past 4 bowl games dating back to 2016.
San Jose State is just 1-2 ATS in the past 3 games as a favorite, while going 2-6 ATS in the past 8 outings.
Over/Under
UNDER 63.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
For San Jose State, the Under has cashed in 3 straight games off campus, and again, the offense should take a hit with Nash not being a part of the team.
The Over has hit in 3 straight games for the Bulls, so that’s where the risk comes in. However, San Jose State has a serviceable defense, and it should be able to slow USF somewhat.
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