Why USC New Year’s Six bowl odds are rising heading into UCLA, Notre Dame games

If #USC doesn’t win the #Pac12, the big goal is to get the Cotton Bowl slot and the NY6. We explain why the Trojans’ chances are improving.

The goal at USC is always to win the conference championship (in the future, it won’t be the Pac-12, but the Big Ten). The Trojans are fully intent on winning the Pac-12 title and creating a situation where they either make the College Football Playoff and face Georgia in the Peach Bowl, or go to the Rose Bowl, where Michigan would be the likely opponent.

That’s the top-line goal for the Trojans. If they don’t reach that goal, however, it’s important that their Plan B for the postseason leads them to the New Year’s Six.

It’s certainly significant to play in a top-tier bowl game in Year 1 — partly as a reward for a good season, partly to show to recruits and commentators that this program really did make substantial progress.

It would feel empty to some degree to settle for the Alamo or Holiday Bowl after being 9-1 through 10 games. Let’s walk through the details of USC’s posteason picture and explain why the odds of a New Year’s Six bowl are getting better for the Men of Troy:

Jon Wilner analysis shows USC will need to beat UCLA to make New Year’s Six bowl

The reality of the situation is that #USC will need to go 11-1 through 12 games if it wants to make either the Rose Bowl or the Cotton Bowl.

USC’s bowl picture is cloudy but promising. What obviously matters is that the Trojans take care of business, but one detail of their situation offers cause for some concern.

Before the season, the idea that USC could get a New Year’s Six bowl with a 10-2 record seemed very realistic, given that Utah was supposed to be a College Football Playoff contender and Notre Dame was supposed to be a very good team. However, with Utah having no shot at the playoff, and with Notre Dame struggling, USC won’t get a huge boost from either its one-point loss at Utah or from a win over Notre Dame.

The thought process going into 2022 was that a narrow loss at Utah might actually improve USC’s resume, and that a loss to Notre Dame wouldn’t detract from it. Those scenarios aren’t in play.

The Trojans will have to go 11-1 to make a New Year’s Six bowl.

Jon Wilner of The Mercury News explains: