Tag: USC bowl projections

USC bowl projection update: You really don’t want to know

How bad is it for USC football? Experts are projecting the Las Vegas Bowl. Might wanna win some games, guys.

In the first few weeks of the season, the USC Trojans were projected for another New Year’s Six bowl game and were even considered to be in the running for the College Football Playoff. Then, they took a trip to South Bend and lost an ugly game against Notre Dame.

Now, those big prizes are no longer likely, although the Trojans are still undefeated in the Pac-12. Following the Notre Dame loss, here’s a quick rundown of some of the national bowl projections.

As you might expect, it isn’t pretty:

  • Las Vegas Bowl vs. Rutgers (ESPN)
  • Alamo Bowl vs. West Virginia (CBS Sports)
  • Alamo Bowl vs. Kansas State (The Athletic)
  • Alamo Bowl vs. Kansas State (Brett McMurphy)
  • Las Vegas Bowl vs. Wisconsin (USA TODAY)

It’s safe to say, this isn’t what USC is hoping for at all. There is still a lot of football left to be played, and games against Utah, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA will definitely help if they can win most of those.

The loss to the Irish is stinging in more ways than expected. Any hopes of a New Year’s Six bowl game just took a massive hit.

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Follow Fighting Irish Wire for more on Notre Dame after the Irish beat USC.

Follow Buffaloes Wire for complete coverage of Deion Sanders and Colorado.

Follow Ducks Wire for coverage of Oregon football after the loss to Washington.

Oklahoma fans were right about Lincoln Riley, at least for this specific season.

USC assistants need to be coaching for their jobs against Utah and into November.

Lincoln Riley did not assemble an elite 2023 roster, which surprised us and a lot of other observers.

Is USC ready to win in 2024 with Miller Moss or Malachi Nelson at quarterback? Lincoln Riley has to be honest about how he answers that question.

Brent Venables is coaching Oklahoma far better this year than Lincoln Riley is coaching USC. It’s up to Riley to change that reality against Utah.

USC bowl projections for Week 3: some playoff semifinals, one Holiday Bowl

Some experts have USC in the playoff, but one forecasts a Holiday Bowl. Predictions are all over the map.

The USC Trojans have done everything they were supposed to do up to this point. They have gone 3-0 with convincing wins every week, and Caleb Williams has been playing essentially the first half only.

They now get a rest for Week 3 before facing Arizona State and then a massive, must-watch, star-studded game against the Colorado Buffaloes on September 30 in Boulder.

The Trojans have their eyes set on a trip to the College Football Playoff, although the Pac-12 schedule won’t be easy for them, especially toward the end of the year. Here is a quick rundown of some of the bowl predictions for the Trojans after the first two full weeks of college football.

Week 1 way-too-early USC bowl projections

Week 1 bowl projections are like bracketology in December … but if you’re interested, here you go:

The USC Trojans have gotten off to a 2-0 start, which is exactly what they were supposed to do, with wins over San Jose State and Nevada.

Next up is a home game against Stanford. The last time the Cardinal came to the Coliseum just happened to be Clay Helton’s final game.

Caleb Williams looks like an early Heisman favorite once again, and the running game was electric. The defense has work to do, but only time will tell if that group is good enough to sustain itself and get the Trojans into the College Football Playoff.

With Week 1 behind us, let us look at some way-too-early bowl projections.

USC bowl choices are great; Trojans go to New Year’s Six after win over Notre Dame

All #USC fans want the #FiestaBowl vs Michigan. That’s the dream scenario. #PeachBowl vs Georgia? We’ll take it. Worst-case: #CottonBowl.

Yes, of course USC fans want the College Football Playoff, which is now one win away for the Trojans. Who wouldn’t want to make the playoff and rise to the top tier of the sport? However, let’s say USC loses to Utah in Friday’s Pac-12 Championship Game. We don’t want it to happen, but let’s say that it does.

Even if that worst-case scenario unfolds, USC has secured a really good bowl destination. The worst the Trojans can do now, as a result of their win over Notre Dame on Saturday night, is the Cotton Bowl, which is a New Year’s Six landing spot.

As we enter the world of bowl projections — which are now much easier to make, given that everyone’s regular season is over except for the small number of teams playing in conference championship games — let’s flesh out the scenarios so that you’re aware of them:

USC Bowl Projections: Notre Dame game will affect USC’s postseason landing spot

If #USC loses to Notre Dame, as Jon Wilner currently projects, the Trojans would need to win the #Pac12 title game to reach a New Year’s Six bowl.

The bowl scenarios for the USC Trojans are vast. If they beat Notre Dame but lose the Pac-12 title game, the Cotton Bowl is their likely postseason spot. If they lose to Notre Dame and win the Pac-12 title, the Rose Bowl is the likely outcome.

Many have pegged the Trojans in the College Football Playoff, but Jon Wilner of The Mercury News has USC going to the Rose Bowl to face Penn State, meaning they lose to Notre Dame but win the Pac-12 title.

“Our latest projections call for the Trojans to lose to Notre Dame but win the conference championship. Their opponent in Pasadena isn’t Michigan or Ohio State — both make the playoff — but Penn State,” Wilner wrote.

In this case, the Pac-12 is shut out of the CFP, and Ohio State and Michigan both make it. That would be a devastating blow for the Pac-12 as a whole, although a Penn State-USC matchup with James Franklin against Lincoln Riley would be fun to watch.

All eyes are on USC this weekend against the Irish, and then all eyes will once again be on the Trojans next weekend in the Pac-12 title game against whichever team they play.

Can Lincoln Riley lead the Trojans to a CFP spot?

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USC bowl game projections: forecasts go from playoff semifinals to the Vegas Bowl

#USC bowls are all over the map. One analyst had the Trojans to the Las Vegas Bowl, which means he thinks USC loses to UCLA and Notre Dame.

Bowl projections are based on projected results. You can do the math here: If you think USC will win its next three games, you will probably put the Trojans in the College Football Playoff semifinals.

If you think the Trojans will win the Pac-12 championship but lose to Notre Dame, you would naturally put them in the Rose Bowl against the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game.

If you think the Trojans will lose to both UCLA and Notre Dame to finish 9-3, you will put them in the Alamo, Holiday, or Las Vegas Bowls.

The new round of college football bowl projections from analysts reflect a wide range of thought processes and game predictions. Here we go:

Why USC New Year’s Six bowl odds are rising heading into UCLA, Notre Dame games

If #USC doesn’t win the #Pac12, the big goal is to get the Cotton Bowl slot and the NY6. We explain why the Trojans’ chances are improving.

The goal at USC is always to win the conference championship (in the future, it won’t be the Pac-12, but the Big Ten). The Trojans are fully intent on winning the Pac-12 title and creating a situation where they either make the College Football Playoff and face Georgia in the Peach Bowl, or go to the Rose Bowl, where Michigan would be the likely opponent.

That’s the top-line goal for the Trojans. If they don’t reach that goal, however, it’s important that their Plan B for the postseason leads them to the New Year’s Six.

It’s certainly significant to play in a top-tier bowl game in Year 1 — partly as a reward for a good season, partly to show to recruits and commentators that this program really did make substantial progress.

It would feel empty to some degree to settle for the Alamo or Holiday Bowl after being 9-1 through 10 games. Let’s walk through the details of USC’s posteason picture and explain why the odds of a New Year’s Six bowl are getting better for the Men of Troy:

Bowl projections for the Pac-12’s top four teams, and where USC fits

The top 4 teams in the #Pac12 are 15-0 against teams 5 through 12. Where does this quartet, including #USC, stand in the bowl landscape?

The Pac-12’s top four teams have elevated themselves above the rest of the conference this season. Before the 2022 campaign began, it was widely felt that USC, Utah and Oregon were a cut above the rest, and that UCLA was probably the fourth-place team in the conference. UCLA has risen above expectations to join the Trojans, Utes and Ducks in a super-strong top four. These four teams — the two Los Angeles schools, Utah, and Oregon — are a combined 15-0 against the fifth-place through 12th-place teams in the conference.

Parity, which usually defines a Pac-12 Conference football season, is nowhere to be found. Oregon has a realistic shot at going 9-0 in the conference, which has not happened since 2010, when the Pac-12 hadn’t even existed yet. The league was still the Pac-10 when Chip Kelly guided Oregon to a perfect record and led the Ducks to the BCS National Championship Game against Auburn.

You probably want to know how the top four teams in the Pac-12 stack up against each other in terms of their current bowl projections, and you probably want to know where USC fits in the mix.

Jon Wilner of the Wilner Hotline is here to help:

Rose Bowl Team: Oregon (7-1/5-0)

Home games remaining (two): Washington, Utah Road games remaining (two): Colorado, Oregon State

No team has run the table in conference play since Oregon in 2010. These Ducks will be solid-to-heavy favorites in every game, at least until the conference championship.

Cotton Bowl Team: USC (7-1/5-1)

Home (three): Cal, Colorado, Notre Dame Road (one): UCLA Comment: It’s a two-game season for a shot at the title. Why two? Well, the Trojans must beat UCLA — we’re counting Cal and Colorado as victories — and they probably need Utah to lose again.

Alamo Bowl Team: Utah (6-2/4-1)

Home (two): Arizona, Stanford Road (two): Oregon, Colorado Comment: Our latest projections call for Utah to lose once (at Oregon) and for UCLA to lose twice (ASU and USC), which opens a path for the Utes into the Alamo. If the teams have the same number of losses, the Bruins might be invited because of their head-to-head win.

Holiday Bowl Team: UCLA (7-1/4-1) Home (two): Arizona, USC Road (two): Arizona State, Cal

News from the future: Immediately after announcing UCLA’s participation, bowl officials reveal they have renamed the game the Awkward Dance Bowl.

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The looming bowl controversy which could leave USC and Pac-12 in the cold

Tulane lost to Southern Miss at home. #USC lost to Utah on the road. Tulane could get a Cotton Bowl berth over USC. That seems wrong.

We need to talk about a possible bowl controversy which could emerge one month from now. We’re just about to begin the month of November. In early December, the bowl selections will be revealed.

One scenario could leave USC and the Pac-12 in the lurch, and it would be one more black eye for the Trojans as they linger in the conference before moving to the Big Ten.

You probably know that one of the New Year’s Six bowl slots is reserved for the Group of Five champion, the highest-ranked conference champion from the AAC, Mountain West, C-USA, MAC, and Sun Belt.

The reason for this Group of Five slot is reasonable, obvious and good: Giving the smaller schools and conferences a big bowl game with a substantial payout. Nothing wrong with that.

However: The Group of Five is really bad this year … and that could take a New Year’s Six bowl slot from USC and the Pac-12. Let’s go through the details:

Jon Wilner analysis shows USC will need to beat UCLA to make New Year’s Six bowl

The reality of the situation is that #USC will need to go 11-1 through 12 games if it wants to make either the Rose Bowl or the Cotton Bowl.

USC’s bowl picture is cloudy but promising. What obviously matters is that the Trojans take care of business, but one detail of their situation offers cause for some concern.

Before the season, the idea that USC could get a New Year’s Six bowl with a 10-2 record seemed very realistic, given that Utah was supposed to be a College Football Playoff contender and Notre Dame was supposed to be a very good team. However, with Utah having no shot at the playoff, and with Notre Dame struggling, USC won’t get a huge boost from either its one-point loss at Utah or from a win over Notre Dame.

The thought process going into 2022 was that a narrow loss at Utah might actually improve USC’s resume, and that a loss to Notre Dame wouldn’t detract from it. Those scenarios aren’t in play.

The Trojans will have to go 11-1 to make a New Year’s Six bowl.

Jon Wilner of The Mercury News explains: