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The UNLV Rebels (6-1, 3-0 Mountain West) and Fresno State Bulldogs (6-1, 2-1) meet Saturday with kickoff at Bulldog Stadium scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UNLV vs. Fresno State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Nevada-Las Vegas has won 5 straight games, including a 25-23 triumph over Colorado State Saturday (as a -6.5 favorite). A powerful UNLV run game was held to its lowest yardage total (138) since Sept. 16, but the Rebels prevailed thanks to a field goal with 3 seconds remaining, UNLV’s 209.6 rushing yards per game rank 14th in the nation.
The Bulldogs — winners of 5 in a row (3-2 ATS) vs. UNLV — last played on Oct. 13 when they failed to cover a -5.5 in a 37-32 win at Utah State. The ATS setback was Fresno State’s 3rd in a row. FSU is the other side of the Rebels run-game coin. The Bulldogs are averaging 302.9 YPG (15th FBS) through the air.
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UNLV at Fresno State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 2:44 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: UNLV +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Fresno State -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): UNLV +8.5 (-110) | Fresno State -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 57.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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UNLV at Fresno State picks and predictions
Prediction
Fresno State 28, UNLV 20
Moneyline
Both teams have played dodgy schedules so far. The host Bulldogs have more explosive-play ability and some upside in turning drives into more points. Other than that, there are similar strength and weaknesses in this match-up.
A Fresno 80% win probability actually has more value to me than the ATS play below, but most bankrolls would PASS on that action.
Against the spread
Same as above. There is a lean on FSU, but both offenses can be dinged enough so as to want to avoid the risk of this spread. PASS.
Over/Under
The total has gone Under in 6 of UNLV’s last 9 games on the road.
The Rebels (35.7 points per game) and Bulldogs (34.0) rank 1st and 4th, respectively, in MWC scoring. But just over the last 5 weeks, both squads have had multiple games where takeaways are fueling short-field scores.
Some normalized field-position exchange in this one would net a decent chance of a game flow that runs out of gas in the low-50s.
BACK THE UNDER 57.5 (-110).
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