Mountain West Basketball: UNLV vs. Minnesota–Preview, Odds, Prediction

Runnin’ Rebels, Gophers battle for SoCal Challenge title

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Game 6: UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (5-0) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-1)

When: Wednesday, November 23rd – 7:30 PT

Where: JSerra Pavilion; San Juan Capistrano, CA

How to Watch: CBS Sports Network

Odds: UNLV -3  Over/Under 126

There’s a championship on the line Wednesday night in southern California for the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels.  It might be the SoCal Challenge, and not the Mountain West Conference tournament, but any chance to grab some hardware will put a little extra juice in your step.  Both the Rebels, and their title game opponent, the Big 10’s Minnesota, earned their way here with hard-fought, low scoring wins Monday night.  

For UNLV, it followed the same pattern as some of their recent successes.  Struggle to make shots early, keep the game close with your defense, trail at the half, and then find a way to make enough plays late to win.  Though coach Kevin Kruger would prefer more complete efforts for 40 minutes, he’s got to love the resiliency and lack of panic his men are showing, as it gives them a belief that they are never out of a game.  

It took the Rebels 12 minutes to hit double figures versus Southern Illinois, and it doesn’t figure to get much easier against Minnesota.  The Gophers get after it defensively, and are holding their opponents to low shooting percentages, much the same as UNLV.  As we discussed before Monday’s game, against many teams, that gives you an edge.  The Runnin’ Rebs are a different animal though, and they are fine cobbling points together in different ways depending on what the matchup looks like.  

Tonight’s matchup may provide an edge on the glass.  Minnesota allows a staggering 16 offensive rebounds per game, and it has not exactly come against a murderer’s row (more on that later).  This will be a point of emphasis Kruger hammers home to his stable of athletic wings and bigs in the pregame walk through – get on the offensive glass!  The Gophers have height in their lineup, but 6 ’11” forward Dawson Garcia is more of a finesse offensive player, and the rest of the frontcourt is inexperienced.  At this point in the season, they are not the toughest, most physical group the Rebels will have played.  There will be an opportunity for UNLV to turn this into a big advantage tonight with their experienced rotation.

Another area of strength for the Rebels has been creating turnovers, and they did it again on Monday, forcing 21 by the Salukis.  Each of their five opponents have turned it over at least 20 times against UNLV’s defense.  That is probably not sustainable, but there is just no room to breathe in the half-court against the length and positioning of the defenders.  Sometimes it’s quick hands leading to a steal, sometimes it’s Luis Rodriguez stepping in to take a charge.  Whatever it is, it’s keeping teams from getting up shots against the Rebels.  Minnesota already plays at the 7th slowest pace in the entire country, as measured by KenPom’s tempo rating.  They don’t figure to improve upon that number tonight.  

What can the Rebels expect from Minnesota offensively?  Garcia is leading them with 16 ppg right now, and has the most attempts from 3-point land.  The most prolific shooter, and performer however, is guard Ta’lon Cooper.  The 6’4” Morehead State transfer has been the catalyst thus far, scoring 11 a game, and dishing out a tremendous 7.5 assists per outing.  For good measure he collects 5 rebounds per contest and has made 8-13 from downtown.  Look for Kruger to rotate fresh defenders on Cooper to try and cut off the head of the snake, as Cooper rarely leaves the floor.  Second year coach Ben Johnson doesn’t like to go much deeper than 7 for his rotation, which is what he did in the overtime win against Cal Baptist on Monday night.  One of those is Jamison Battle, who garnered preseason all-Big Ten recognition.  Battle made his season debut in that Monday game, after missing the start of the campaign with a foot injury.  He struggled offensively as he works himself into shape, but averaged 17 points a game last year, so the Rebels will be aware of him on the scouting report.  Another Gopher to keep an eye on is Pharrel Payne.  The 6’9” freshman forward went for 15 and 13 against the Lancers.

The Rebels could use some points from the bench and supporting cast.  Only 3 players – Keshon Gilbert, EJ Harkless, and Rodriguez – scored more than 4 points against SIU.  When you’re playing super low scoring games, you are not going to have five guys getting into double figures, but getting anywhere from 5-9 points from Elijah Parquet, David Muoka, Jackie Johnson would help.  UNLV also only attempted nine free throws on Monday, and that may not go up against Minnesota, who actually fouls less than the Rebels do.  Sometimes that is dependent on the 3 men with the whistles, but until the last minute, if and when someone needs to foul to extend the game, the charity stripe might not have a lot of usage in this one. 

How is this one going to play out?  UNLV has started 5-0 for the first time in five years, and while not all of the wins have been pretty, they still go in the column under W.  Moving forward, the Rebels will need to figure out how to be more efficient offensively, but as is often the case with well-coached teams in basketball, the defense is ahead of the offense.  As for Minnesota, there are a couple of things to note.  First, they have played a very poor schedule, ranking in the bottom 10 in the nation.  Coach Johnson was looking to build confidence in his troops by racking up some early season wins, and has to be pleased with a 4-1 start.  But, with the possible exception of DePaul, they have not seen anything remotely close to the athleticism and defensive intensity they will see tonight.  That DePaul outing is the only loss of the season for the Golden Gophers, falling 69-53 at home.  Also, if the game comes down to the foul line, there is a massive advantage for UNLV.  Minnesota is shooting 54% as a team, one of the five worst percentages in the entire country.  They have zero players shooting even 70% from the line, an amazing and abysmal statistic by college basketball standards. 

This shapes up similarly to Monday’s game, and the SoCal Challenge Committee did a great job of getting four very even programs for this event.  Neither team is likely to run away and hide, and Kruger will just hope his charges hang around early, until they can make some adjustments and perform their usual 2nd half routine.  Anything better than that would be considered a bonus.  It might not be pretty, but it says here the turkey will taste a little better on Thursday after the Runnin’ Rebels earn themselves a championship.

Prediction: UNLV 66  Minnesota 59

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Mountain West Basketball: UNLV vs. Southern Illinois–Preview, Odds, Prediction

Runnin’ Rebels head to southern California for SoCal Challenge, take on Southern Illinois

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Game 5: UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (4-0) vs. Southern Illinois Salukis (3-1)

When: Monday, November 21st – 10:00 PT

Where: The Pavilion at JSerra; San Juan Capistrano, CA

How to Watch: CBS Sports Network

Odds: UNLV -1.5  Over/Under 125

Late night hoops baby!  It’s Feast Week, and we’re not just talking about the pounds of turkey and the endless leftovers of side dishes you’ll take home from family gatherings this extended weekend.  Although it technically started last week, Feast Week is that wonderful stretch of days when hoops junkies have quality basketball to watch at all hours of the day.  Early AM games, check.  Mid-afternoon games, check.  Standard evening games, of course check.  And now, thanks to the SoCal Challenge, we have late night hoops as well.  As in, 10:00 Pacific Time late, something rarely seen, and it shapes up as an intriguing matchup between UNLV and Southern Illinois.  

The Runnin’ Rebels come in 4-0, and probably own the best win so far of any Mountain West Conference team, a 60-52 home win over a Dayton outfit that was nationally ranked.  This will be their first game outside of Las Vegas and the Thomas & Mack Center, so that is always something to keep an eye on.  The Salukis enter at 3-1 and also sport a quality win, a 61-60 upset victory in Stillwater, against Oklahoma State.  They did follow that up by laying an egg, dropping a 71-53 decision to Division I newbie Southern Indiana.    

The SoCal Challenge is in its second year of existence.  Like most Multi-Team Events, there are 8 teams headed to sunny southern California, but unlike most of those other tourneys, these teams are only getting two games.  The 8 teams are actually split up into two small four team brackets, one is titled the Surf, and one is the Sand.  Can’t really go wrong with either, but for what it’s worth, the Rebels are in the Surf division; the Sand bracket is reserved for low to mid-major schools.  The other two members of the Surf division are Minnesota and Cal Baptist.  Fellow MWC squad Fresno State won the first edition a year ago, so maybe that’s a good sign for UNLV. 

What have the Runnin’ Rebs done well in the early going?  They are making their money on the defensive end, measuring out very highly in defensive efficiency ratings.  They are suffocating opponents with their length, harassing them into 38% shooting from the field.  The aggressive half-court defensive style preferred by second year coach Kevin Kruger has yielded the desired results, as UNLV has forced at least 20 turnovers in all four of their games.  That makes this last statistic even more remarkable; Rebels opponents have only attempted 45 free throws through four games, an average of 11 attempts per game.  For context, UNLV has attempted 103.  Some coaches prefer a more passive ‘don’t foul’ defensive philosophy, think Wisconsin.  Some want to be aggressive and make the game frenetic.  If you can play aggressively and still not foul, you are working with a winning formula.  

The offense has not clicked as well so far, which sometimes is the case early in a season.  Perimeter shooting has really been below par, as the Rebs are hitting a paltry 27% of their 3 point attempts.  Leading scorer Keshon Gilbert can claim exemption from that list, as he has connected on 9 of 14 from deep, but he will need another threat to emerge to stretch opposing defenses.  Luckily for UNLV, they have been able to score off of turnovers and on the fast break.  Turnovers have been a problem at times, as they are committing more than 15 per game, a shade too high.  EJ Harkless is the second leading scorer, even though his shots are not falling from the outside.  He has gotten to the foul line at a high rate, a sign that he’s willing to attack the basket and not just settle for jumpers.  

Southern Illinois is similar to UNLV in several ways.  Starting with hanging their hat on the defensive end, as they also hold opponents to under 60 ppg.  They really stress defending the perimeter, allowing teams to shoot the 3 at only a 24% clip.  That might be a massive plus against some teams, but as noted earlier, the 3-pointer isn’t a huge weapon for the Rebels, so that strength of SIU is somewhat mitigated.  The Salukis don’t wow you with size or athleticism, they simply play to the scouting report, a nod to head coach Bryan Mullins and his staff.  They want to take away what you do best.  Last time out they held Tennessee State to 44, and only 17 in the second half.  

Unfortunately for SIU, they also struggle offensively, even more so than the Rebels from behind the arc, clocking in at 26%.  Contrary to UNLV, they don’t really supplement their half-court offense with transition buckets, and they do not get to the foul line at a high rate.  They also play at a very slow pace, ranking in the bottom 10% in adjusted tempo per KenPom.  The Salukis are rarely in a hurry, instead content to burn the shot clock, searching for the best look they can get each time down the floor.  They also are usually willing to sacrifice the offensive glass to get back in transition.  That would seem to be the game plan tonight as well.  They do possess two double figure scorers, in Marcus Domask, and Lance Jones.  Hold either of them below their average, and UNLV will be in great shape. 

This has all the makings of a 12 rounder.  Whoever can absorb the body blows better will be in position to grab the W in the last few minutes, since it’s unlikely either team hits a Mike Tyson style knockout punch early.  Points should be at a premium as these are two well-coached defensive oriented teams.  They are also veteran, senior-laden squads.  It would not be a surprise to see a halftime score in the 28-22 range, and frankly, SIU will have trouble getting into the 60’s.  Their win over Oklahoma State was impressive, but they trailed by double figures in the late stages, and the Cowboys collapsed down the stretch, almost handing the win to the Salukis.  They are undersized at almost every position here, so rebounding should be a huge advantage for UNLV.  With perimeter shooting a work in progress for both squads, and Mullins likely to focus on shutting down the Rebels transition game, this one might come down to intangibles and winning plays.  UNLV trailed at the half in both of its last two outings, and there has been no panic, they are comfortable playing from behind.  The difference here may be one or two key offensive rebounds, or a forced turnover.  Either of those are likely to be in the favor of UNLV.  It may not be pretty, but it says here the Runnin’ Rebels find a way to get to 5-0 and will play for a championship on Wednesday night.

Prediction: UNLV 63 Southern Illinois 56

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