Tag: UFC Vegas 99 betting odds lines picks and predictions best bets

UFC Fight Night 245: Charles Johnson vs. Sumudaerji odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 245 odds between Charles Johnson vs. Sumudaerji, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round flyweight bout on the main card, Charles Johnson and Sumudaerji meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 245 — also known as UFC Vegas 99 and UFC on ESPN+ 103 — at the UFC Apex. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 245: Johnson vs. Sumudaerji odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Records: Johnson (16-6-0) | Sumudaerji (16-6-0)

Johnson has picked up 3 straight victories after a 3-bout losing skid from Feb. 24-Nov. 18, 2023. All 3 of the losses came via decision, too. He has ended up going the distance in 5 of his previous 6 fights. Last time out, he stopped Joshua Van in a 3rd-round KO/TKO on July 13, however.

Sumudaerji has dropped the past 2 bouts, each by submission, including a 1st-round loss to Tim Elliott. His last victory came in a unanimous decision against Zarrukh Adashev Jan. 20, 2021.

The 33-year-old Johnson has a slight 4.83-to-4.64 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while he is also slightly more accurate than the Chinese southpaw at 56.79% to 55.94%.

In the ground game, neither is particularly strong, with Johnson posting a 0.38 takedown average, with Sumudaerji checking in at 0.29. The southpaw has a slight 0.59-to-0.50 lead in submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 245: Johnson vs. Sumudaerji odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Johnson -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Sumudaerji +195 (bet $100 to win $195)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -185 | No +135)

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UFC Fight Night 245: Johnson vs. Sumudaerji picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Johnson (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too expensive straight up. If you were to toss him into a multi-leg parlay, it could be excused.

Instead of playing Johnson on the 2-way line, look to the method of victory. JOHNSON BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+100) at even-money is a much better play. He has ended up needing the help of the judges to determine a winner in 5 of his past 6 fights, and 7 of his 9 outings since joining the UFC.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (-185) is a little on the pricey side, but if you’re wavering on the overall winner, and still want action the fight, this is the way to go.

Again, Johnson has ended up going the distance in 7 of his 9 fights at the UFC level, while Sumudaerji has had 2 decisions in the past 5 bouts.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 245: Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 245 odds between Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round bantamweight bout on the main card, Rob Font and Kyler Phillips meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 245 — also known as UFC Vegas 99 and UFC on ESPN+ 103 — at the UFC Apex. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 245: Font vs. Phillips odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Records: Font (20-8-0) | Phillips (12-2-0)

The 37-year-old veteran Font is looking to snap a 2-bout skid. He also has dropped 4 of his past 5 outings, although losses to the likes of Jose Aldo, Deiveson Figueiredo, Cory Sandhagen and Marlon Vera is nothing to be ashamed about. Those aren’t exactly tomato cans.

Font has ended up going the distance in each of his past 2 losses, and 5 of the past 6 bouts. He has finished inside the distance in just 2 of his past 10 fights since July 7, 2018, too.

For Phillips, he takes the walk with 3 consecutive victories, including a unanimous-decision win over Pedro Munhoz last time out at UFC 299. He has ended up going the distance in 2 in a row, and 4 of the past 5 outings.

Phillips has an ever-so-slight half-inch reach advantage, while he has a slight 5.72-to-5.53 significant strikes landed per minute lead. Phillips is also just a little more accurate at 48.53%, to just 47.81% for Font.

On takedowns, Phillips is well ahead with a 2.41 mark, to just 0.89 for Font. Phillips is way more accurate on takedowns, too, posting a 46.88% takedown accuracy percentage, to just 35.14% for the veteran Font. Phillips also leads in submission average, posting a 0.48-to-0.34 lead.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 245: Font vs. Phillips odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Font +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Phillips -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -190 | No +140)

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UFC Fight Night 245: Font vs. Phillips picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Phillips (-550) is an overwhelming favorite, as he looks to take down the veteran Font (+400) and position himself for a run at the bantamweight championship. If he is to realize that, he can’t lose to a veteran that is struggling lately.

Phillips does so many things well, and he is the more well-rounded fighter at this point of his career.

Still, you can’t risk 5 times your potential return. Let’s get more specific instead. PHILLIPS ON POINTS (-140) is the best play, as he has gone the distance in 4 of his past 5 outings, with 3 wins via the method.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes: Fight to go the distance (-190) is quite pricey, and this bet comes with a disclaimer. You cannot make this play straight up, but if you incorporate it onto a ticket with several other legs of an MMA parlay, or a mixed sport ticket, then it isn’t that bad.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 245: Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 245 odds between Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round middleweight bout in the main event, Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 245 — also known as UFC Vegas 99 and UFC on ESPN+ 103 — at the UFC Apex. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 245: Hernandez vs. Pereira odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Records: Hernandez (12-2-0) | Pereira (31-11-0)

Hernandez streaks into this main event with 5 consecutive victories dating back to UFC 258. That includes a 2nd-round submission of Roman Kopylov at UFC 298 back on Feb. 17. He has finished inside the distance in 4 of his 5 victories during the win streak, and he has had just 1 decision in his 8 fights at the UFC level since Feb. 2, 2019.

For Pereira, he enters on an 8-bout win streak since being DQ’d against Diego Sanchez Feb. 15, 2020 in New Mexico. He has finished inside the distance in each of his past 3 outings, including a pair of 1st-round submission wins over Ihor Potieria and Michal Oleksiejczuk. Each of his past 3 wins have been finished in Round 1.

Hernandez holds a 2-inch reach advantage, while Pereira has a slight 5.16-to-4.30 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Hernandez is much more accurate with those strikes at 64.32%, while the Brazilian fighter has a 56.14% mark.

Hernandez is a lot more efficient on takedowns, too, posting a 6.62 takedown average, to 1.53 mark for Pereira. Hernandez has posted an impressive 2.99 submission average, to just 0.84 for Pereira.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 245: Hernandez vs. Pereira odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Hernandez -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Pereira +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Over/under: 2.5 Rounds (Over +120 | Under -160)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -700)

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UFC Fight Night 245: Hernandez vs. Pereira picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

HERNANDEZ (-135) is a strong play on the 2-way line, as he does much more right than Pereira (+110).

It’s Hernandez’s work in the ground-and-pound that sets him apart, and as long as he avoids the big shot for a knockout, he’ll get the job done.

Hernandez has won 3 of his past 5 fights by way of submission, and 5 of his past 8 fights have finished via the method, with 4 victories.

In fact, if you wanted to roll the dice on the 7-way line, playing HERNANDEZ BY SUBMISSION (+150), that’s a solid value at plus-money.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-160) is a nice play at this price.

This fight isn likely to end before the middle of Round 3. Hernandez has gone past 2:30 of Round 3 just once in the past 9 pro bouts, while Pereira hasn’t even seen Round 2 in the past 3 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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