Tag: UFC on ESPN 51 odds lines picks and predictions best bets

UFC on ESPN 51: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 51 odds and lines between Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout in the main event, Vicente Luque and Rafael dos Anjos meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 51 at UFX APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 51: Luque vs. dos Anjos odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Luque (21-9-1) | dos Anjos (32-14-0)

Luque heads to the octagon with back-to-back setbacks, suffering a KO/TKO in the 3rd round against Geoff Neal last time out in Aug. 2022 and losing via unanimous decision against Belal Muhammad in April 2022. His most recent victory was a 1st-round submission against Michael Chiesa back on Aug. 7, 2021.

Dos Anjos submitted Bryan Barberena last time out in early December as he bounced back from a KO/TKO loss to Rafael Fiziev in July 2022. He has picked up 3 wins in the past 4 bouts after a pair of unanimous-decision setbacks to Chiesa and Leon Edwards. He has gone the distance in 9 of his last 13 bouts dating back to Nov. 2016.

Luque boasts an impressive 5 1/2-inch reach advantage, and that should serve him well in keeping dos Anjos at a distance, picking and choosing his spots for the big blow. The 31-year-old Brazilian also holds a solid 5.49-to-3.56 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.

If dos Anjos is to make any noise, he’ll want to get Luque to the canvas. RDA sports a solid 2.05 takedown average, while Luque has just a 0.51 takedown average. The underdog Luque is a little more accurate on takedowns, too, posting a 50.0% mark, while dos Anjos has managed a 35.87% takedown accuracy percentage.

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UFC on ESPN 51: Luque vs. dos Anjos odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:49 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Luque +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | dos Anjos -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +120 | No -165)

UFC on ESPN 51: Luque vs. dos Anjos picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

LUQUE (+100) is a solid value straight up on the 2-way line as a short ‘dog at even money.

I believe Luque will use his immense reach advantage to his advantage, dictating the pace of the fight. He’ll be able to pick and choose his spots to go in for the big shot while holding dos Anjos at a distance.

However, I don’t feel as if Luque is going to be able to score the finish. METHOD OF VICTORY – 7-WAY: LUQUE BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+500) is super attractive for an opportunity to multiply your initial wager by 5 times.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (+120): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is worth a look at plus money, if you don’t want to declare a winner, yet want a little action in this fight. OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-125) isn’t priced out of line, if you want a little wiggle room in the event of a potential late-round stoppage.

And I think Luque will be able to land more significant strikes than dos Anjos, so go OVER (-110) ON LUQUE – TOTAL SIGNIFICANT STRIKES.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 51: Cub Swanson vs. Hakeen Dawodu odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 51 odds and lines between Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a featherweight bout on the main card, Cub Swanson and Hakeem Dawodu meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 51 at UFX APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 51: Swanson vs. Dawodu odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Swanson (28-13-0) | Dawodu (13-3-1)

Swanson has alternated losses and wins across his past 4 fights. He suffered a 2nd-round KO/TKO loss against Jonathan Martinez last time out in mid-Octobert, and all 4 of the aforementioned fights have resulted in knockouts. His last fight to go the distance was against Kron Gracie on Oct. 12, 2019.

Dawodu has also alternated losses and wins across the past 4 outings, with 3 straight unanimous decisions. The Canadian fighter has involved the judges in 5 straight outings, with his last finish coming in a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Yoshinori Horie on July 27, 2019.

Dawodu holds a 3.5-inch reach advantage and a 5.33-to-4.68 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The veteran Swanson has an ever-so-slight 54.81%-to-53.94% significant strikes accuracy percentage advantage. Swanson can do work on the canvas if needed, but that’s not Dawodu’s game and he hasn’t recorded a takedown at the UFC level.

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UFC on ESPN 51: Swanson vs. Dawodu odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:31 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Swanson +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Dawodu -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -250 | Under +185)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -105 | No -130)

UFC on ESPN 51: Swanson vs. Dawodu picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Dawodu (-225) has a big reach advantage, and I expect him to be able to draw the veteran in and out when he chooses. Swanson (+185) will likely try to get the Canadian fighter in the clinch, looking to score points with the judges, but Dawodu is likely to be able to keep him at a distance.

However, you cannot risk more than 2 times your potential return on the favorite. Instead, I really like METHOD OF VICTORY – 7-WAY: DAWODU BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+200) for a chance to double up. I don’t think he can knock out Swanson, who is too savvy of a veteran, but I do think he will do more to wow the judges.

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-250) is just too steep of a price tag, costing more than 2 1/2 times your potential return.

Instead, look to YES (-105): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? for a much better value. Dawodu has gone the distance in 5 consecutive bouts and has needed the judges to decide a victor in 7 of his previous 8 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 51: Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Chris Daukaus odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 51 odds and lines between Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Chris Daukaus with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Khalil Rountree Jr. and Chris Daukaus meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 51 at UFX APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 51: Rountree Jr. vs. Daukaus odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Rountree Jr. (12-5-0) | Daukaus (12-6-0)

Rountree Jr. takes the walk with a 3-fight win streak in tow. He picked up a split-decision win over Dustin Jacoby last time out in late October on the heels of a pair of 2nd-round KO/TKO wins against Karl Roberson (March 2022) and Modestas Bukauskas (Sept. 2021).

The southpaw Rountree Jr. has an ever-so-slight half-inch reach advantage. That’s about the only category in his favor though, as he has just 3.67 significant strikes landed per minute to 6.41 for Daukaus and lands just 41.99% of those strikes while Daukaus connects with a 52.20% significant strikes accuracy percentage.

Daukaus enters on a 3-bout losing skid, having been knocked out in each of his bouts against Jairzinho Rozenstruik (Dec. 2022), Curtis Blaydes (March 2022) and Derrick Lewis (Dec. 2021). Win or lose, he makes it exciting. All 7 of Daukaus’ fights at the UFC level have resulted in knockouts, with 4 going in his favor — including 3 in the 1st round. He has also never been past the 1:23 mark of the 2nd round in his 7 UFC bouts.

As far as KRJ is concerned, he has gone the distance in just 3 of his past 8 bouts, with 3 KO/TKO wins and 2 KO/TKO losses. Don’t blink when this fight comes on or you might miss it.

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UFC on ESPN 51: Rountree Jr. vs. Daukaus odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:05 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Rountree Jr. -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Daukaus +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +135 | Under -175)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +375 | No -650)

UFC on ESPN 51: Rountree Jr. vs. Daukaus picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Rountree Jr. (-185) enters the octagon with momentum, winning the past 3 fights, but facing DAUKAUS (+150) is a big step up in competition. Daukaus has faced down the top fighters in the division, and won’t be fazed against “The War Horse”.

Daukaus is a whirling dervish who throws all kinds of punches, and he lands his significant strikes more frequently than his counterpart. In addition, he doesn’t go long, and win or lose, this fight will end in a knockout. I like the underdog straight up, but METHOD OF VICTORY – 7-WAY: DAUKAUS BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+250) is pretty tasty, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-175) comes with a pretty steep price tag, but it’s worth a look. Daukaus has never been past the midway point of Round 2 in 7 career UFC bouts.

Rountree Jr. went the distance last time out, and he has ended up past the middle of the 2nd round in 3 of his past 4 outings. However, he is going to face a storm earlier than usual as Daukaus will make him eat plenty of punches early and often.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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