In a flyweight bout on the main card, Tim Elliott and Victor Altamirano meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 45 — also known as UFC Vegas 74 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 45: Elliott vs. Altamirano odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims are on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.
Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.
Elliott takes the walk to the octagon looking to build off of his unanimous decision win at UFC 272 against Tagir Ulanbekov in March 2022. It was a solid win after his unanimous decision setback against Matheus Nicolau in Oct. 2021 in his previous bout. He has gone the distance in each of his last 4 outings.
Altamirano has registered consecutive wins against Daniel Lacerda in March and Vinicius Salvador in August 2022. It has been a nice bounce back after El Magnifico’s split-decision setback against Carlos Hernandez in his UFC debut in late Feb. 2022. He’s gone the distance in 4 of his last 5 pro bouts.
UFC on ESPN 45: Elliott vs. Altamirano odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:02 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Elliott -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Altamirano +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -225 | No +165)
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UFC on ESPN 45: Elliott vs. Altamirano picks and predictions
Records: Elliott (19-12-1) | Altamirano (12-2-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
The southpaw Elliott (-185) is a rather heavy favorite despite the fact he’s an inch shorter than his counterpart and has a 4-inch reach disadvantage. Elliott is also 4 years older than his opponent.
The Mexican ALTAMIRANO (+150) has a 6.15 significant strikes landed per minute to just 3.58 for the southpaw Elliott. Altamirano is much more accurate, too, landing his significant strikes at 65.97%, although Elliott is still rather accurate at 59.52%.
This won’t be easy, but the value play is on the underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-225) is too expensive, as it will cost you more than 2 times your potential return.
Look instead to the round betting or method of victory, and take ALTAMIRANO ON POINTS (+300) for a chance to triple up if he pulls off the victory after going the distance.
I believe this will be a very close fight, and a split decision or majority decision could be in play. As a result, YES (+375): FIGHT TO BE WON BY SPLIT OR MAJORITY DECISION is worth a small-unit wager.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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