Tag: UFC on ABC A6

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez prediction, pick: Who benefits from short-notice switch in this title hopeful bout?

How will former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas handle the short-notice test Tracy Cortez presents in Denver?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 59 main event between former strawweight champion [autotag]Rose Namajunas[/autotag] and [autotag]Tracy Cortez[/autotag], who is undefeated in the promotion.

Rose Namajunas UFC on ESPN 59 preview

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’5″ Age: 32 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65″
  • Last fight: Decision win over Amanda Ribas(March 23, 2024)
  • Camp: Genesis (Denver, Co.)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC strawweight champion
+ Taekwondo and karate black belts
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 2 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Good feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate and effective jab
+ Counters well with right hand
+ Improved wrestling ability
+ Solid top game/positional rides
^ Looks for/floats toward back
+ Active and attacking guard

Tracy Cortez UFC on ESPN 59 preview

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’5″ Age: 30 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65.5″
  • Last fight: Decision win over Jasmine Jasudavicius (Sept. 16, 2023)
  • Camp: Fight Ready (Arizona)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Amateur MMA accoldes
+ Wrestling base
+ 1 KO victory
+ 1 submission win
+ 1 first-round finish
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving striking skills
+ Hard hooks and crosses
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Solid striking and slick inside trips
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Rides well from topside
+/- Stepping in on short notice

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez point of interest: The cost of counters

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 23: (L-R) Rose Namajunas punches Amanda Ribas of Brazil in a flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on March 23, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

The main event in Denver features an impromptu pairing of female flyweights familiar with the cost of counters.

An aggressive wrestle-boxer by nature, Cortez has seen her fair share of counterstrikes during her 7-year professional career. That said, Cortez has been able to balance out that dynamic through the steady dose of improvements she’s been showing on the feet.

Not only can Cortez counter with the level-changing takedown threats that she keeps in her back pocket, but the Fight Ready product has sharpened up her striking options at range. Whether she’s returning a leg kick or shaking up the rhythm with a hook-cross changeup down the pike, Cortez has gotten better at disguising her intentions and returns.

Cortez also has a natural aptitude for clinch striking, working particularly well when establishing frames while her opponent is pinned against the fence. These attributes will certainly serve Cortez well from a stylistic perspective, but she’ll still need to respect the traffic that’s coming back her way.

Enter Namajunas.

A talented opportunist who can accentuate her length through accurate and concise jabs, Namanjunas presents some tricky distances for her opponents to cover on paper.

Namajunas does well with judging the risk versus reward regarding her options of following up with crosses and kicks or backing up out of range. The 32-year-old has also massively improved her ability to set things up off of feints under the tutelage of Trevor Wittman – a coach who has helped Namajunas hone in on her skills by sharpening her overall fundamentals.

However, it has been apparent that Wittman’s presence has steadily faded out from Namajunas’ camp and corner in recent fights. Now primarily training under her partner, Pat Barry, Namajunas appears to flow a little more freely with her approach.

Namajunas still possesses a lot of the core fundamentals that were sharpened under Wittman’s watch, but the former strawweight champ will now shift stances much more offensively, showing some solid competency when working out from southpaw.

Still, I’m not sure how much shifting we’ll see from Namajunas given the looming level-changing threats from Cortez.

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez breakdown: Potential grappling threats

May 7, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Tracy Cortez pins Melissa Gatto to the mat during UFC 274 at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Given Cortez’s on-paper edge in the wrestling realm, no one should be shocked if she attempts to ground Namajunas early and often.

Wrestling from a young age, Cortez brings a strong skillset that has traditionally been a bit more rare to come across in the women’s divisions. Not only does Cortez possess solid level-changing shots, but the Mexican-American also chains attacks seamlessly to her inside trip whenever in closed quarters (which is a signature move of her longtime mentor, Henry Cejudo).

However, in Namajunas’ defense, the former strawweight champ has made quiet improvements to both her wrestling and overall grappling throughout the years.

After suffering her first loss to Carla Esparza, Namajunas hit an immediate upswing in her grappling abilities, displaying that she had more to offer than just opportunistic submissions from her back. Utilizing offensive wrestling and top pressure, Namajunas began taking down her counterparts, exposing them to submissions underneath her suggestive shoulder pressure and slick transitions.

As far as her defense goes, Namajunas has demonstrated excellent instincts regarding her use of whizzers in conjunction with some slick butterflies and legwork that help her get back to her feet when taken down. That said, Namajunas will still need to be careful when giving back exposure in scrambles given Cortez’s strengths.

Aside from being a competent backtaker who can seal rounds with superior control time and offense, Cortez also appears to have a genuine appetite for riding her opposition from topside while landing damaging strikes.

But with ground strikes often allowing for space, expect scrambles to be a potent two-way street in this stylistic affair. And if Cortez allows Namajunas to create scrambles, then she will need to be mindful of her wrestling-centric tendency to tripod to her base.

A superb back-taker, Namajunas has a knack for floating to or finding the back of her opponent in transit. And given that Namajunas is undefeated in fights in which she has scored a back-take, this will undoubtedly be the scenario to look for during grappling exchanges.

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez odds

The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the former strawweight champion, listing Namajunas -235 and Cortez +180 via FanDuel.

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez prediction, pick

Nov 6, 2021; New York, NY, USA; Rose Namajunas (red gloves) competes against Zhang Weili (blue gloves) during UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

Between Namajunas being the more proven product and the short-notice context for Cortez, seeing a 2-1 spread in favor of “Thug Rose” doesn’t necessarily surprise me.

Cortez may have already been in camp for a fight that was only one week out from this Saturday, but that prep was for a completely different fighter in what was a three-round affair. If Cortez were fighting Namajunas on a full camp in the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex, then I’d honestly consider pulling the trigger on her as an underdog given the stylistic nature at play.

Not only have superior wrestlers and clinch fighters typically troubled Namajunas, but Cortez appears to have a strong strategic presence in her corner that’s chiefed by Santino DeFranco.

Still, with this fight taking place in the big cage, Cortez will have a lot of distance to cover if she means to track down the fleet of foot Namajunas. Couple that with Cortez’s propensity to get countered off of kicks, and I can’t help but side with Namajunas in this spot.

Aside from making some solid strides in her traditional trouble areas, Namajunas seems to be feeling confident heading into this Saturday’s contest – which usually spells trouble for whoever is standing across from her.

Prediction: Namajunas by decision

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez start time, where to watch

As the main event, Namajunas and Cortez are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET. The fight broadcasts live on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 59.

Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov prediction, pick: Can ex-champ get back in hunt at UFC on ABC 6?

How will former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker handle the short-notice test Ikram Aliskerov brings to Saudi Arabia?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ABC 6 main event between former middleweight champion [autotag]Robert Whittaker[/autotag] and short-notice opponent [autotag]Ikram Aliskerov[/autotag].

Robert Whittaker UFC on ABC 6 preview

Robert Whittaker

Staple info:

  • Record: 25-7 MMA, 16-5 UFC
  • Height: 6’0″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 73.5″
  • Last fight: Decision win over Paul Costa (Feb. 17, 2024)
  • Camp: Gracie Jiu-jitsu Smeaton Grange (Australia)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ Hapkido and karate black belt
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Australian National Wrestling Championships gold medal
+ 10 knockout victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good footwork and distance management
^ Quick blitzes and deceptive tempo changes
+ Accurate jabs and hooks
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Improved overall grappling

Ikram Aliskerov UFC on ABC 6 preview

Ikram Aliskerov, UFC 294

Staple info:

  • Record: 15-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC
  • Height: 6’0″ Age: 31 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76″
  • Last fight: TKO win over Warlley Alves (Oct. 21, 2023)
  • Camp: KHK MMA Team (Russia)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Combat sambo world champion
+ Multiple sambo titles (European and world)
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 6 knockout victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
^ Naturally heavy hands
+ Accurate jab
+ Solid sense of range
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Competent takedown chains
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Dangerous with kimuras

Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov point of interest: Jabbers, not jobbers

Feb 17, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Robert Whittaker lands a jab against Paulo Costa during UFC 298 at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The main event in Saudi Arabia features an impromptu middleweight matchup between two talented fighters who aren’t afraid to use their jab.

Coming from a traditional martial arts base, [autotag]Robert Whittaker[/autotag] has developed into one of the most unique striking stylists at 185 pounds.

Using a combination of speed, accuracy and a fluid economy of movement, the Australian will deceptively blitz off different angles. Like many karate-based strikers, Whittaker will feint or show a certain speed to draw his opponent into a false sense of security, only to disrupt the perceived timing with off-beat strikes.

https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1382169527027261440

As we’ve seen in multiple fights, Whittaker often will assert himself through rear-legged front kicks that he uses to launch himself into variations of left hooks and shifting overhand shots. The former champ also has no issue when it comes to sticking to his fundamentals, building offense off of deceptive jabs and feints.

https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1397627348489424896

That said, Whittaker is not beyond being taxed for his sometimes low-handed approach and will need to be on his best behavior opposite a competitor like [autotag]Ikram Aliskerov[/autotag].

Despite coming from an extensive sambo background, Aliskerov has steadily been improving his striking for those paying attention.

Smartly prioritizing his lead hand, Aliskerov plies a deceptively effective jab at range. The 31-year-old will occasionally play off his jab, offering up change-ups in the form of hook-cross combinations.

When feeling in Stride, Aliskerov will attach kicks or knees to his combos, working particularly well off his lead side. Although Aliskerov’s offerings off of the lead side should serve him well on paper, the Dagestani’s A-game is arguably on the ground.

Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Ikram Aliskerov def. Warlley Alves, UFC 294

Considering Aliskerov’s grappling prowess, no one should be shocked if the Dagestani fighter attempts to take this party to the floor this Saturday.

A world and European champion in sambo, Aliskerov is no stranger to closed-quarter combat. Like many high-level operators out of Dagestan, Aliskerov does his best work from the clinch – a place where he can chain to and from takedown attempts.

Whether Aliserkov is working from bodylock positions or single-leg variations, the 12-year pro doesn’t seem to be short on ideas in this space. Aliskerov also keeps solid reactive takedown shots in his back pocket, which could come in handy against a blitzing “Bobby Knuckles.”

That said, Whittaker has proven to be much more difficult to ground than many presumed.

Aside from the fact that Whittaker’s footwork makes it difficult for his opponents to set up their shots, the Australian also shows the small technical intricacies that make him hard to ground or hold down when grasped.

For example, while most fighters are reliant on more traditional defenses such as sprawls or battles for under-hooks, they typically end up losing out to superior grapplers since these defensive tactics involve a commitment to contact (which in turn begets more grappling).

Whereas Whittaker, though capable of using those defenses, does not rely on them. Instead, “The Reaper” prefers to head off takedown attempts at the pass.

Already possessing a strong base and balance, Whittaker’s hip and grip awareness also have improved through the years.

Not only does Whittaker utilize grip breaks and wrist controls, but the 33-year-old is also disciplined about consistently circling out to his opponent’s weak side, which helps dissuade re-shots and takedown chain adjustments from his foes. Even Romero had difficulty grasping or chaining off his initial attempts due to Whittaker’s persistence to fight hands.

What is even more impressive is Whittaker’s ability to go from thwarting takedown attempts to striking off the breaks, something that will also likely keep Aliskerov honest in exchanges with him.

Still, if Whittaker does find himself on the bottom in this fight, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt will need to be extra careful with his propensity to look for underhook getups given Aliskerov’s knack for finding kimuras.

Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov odds

Despite the oddsmakers opening this fight at a pick’em, public money has come in the former champion, listing Whittaker -154 and Aliskerov +120 via FanDuel.

Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov prediction, pick

ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 17: Robert Whittaker of New Zealand celebrates defeating Paulo Costa of Brazil in their middleweight fight during UFC 298 at Honda Center on February 17, 2024 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Considering that Whittaker is a much more proven product on paper, I can completely understand the early enthusiasm for bettors backing the Australian in this spot.

That said, I stand by my initial feeling that Aliskerov is a deceptively trickier task than Whittaker’s original opponent – Khamzat Chimaev – from a stylistic perspective.

Don’t get me wrong: Chimaev offers a hell of an early storm to weather on paper, but Whittaker has traditionally done well against aggressive, grapple-heavy fighters.

Aliskerov, however, offers a much different ask given that the Dagestani fighter is more fundamentally sound than Chimaev and appears to be able to fight at a solid pace for three rounds. Moreover, Aliskerov is among the handful of decent jabber in the division, which could pay some potential dividends considering the success Costa had when jabbing in Whittaker’s last fight.

But between Aliskerov’s inexperience at this level and the fact that last week’s shakeup affects him more with the multiple weight cuts compounded with travel at hand, I can’t help but side with the speed and savvy of Whittaker.

I believe that Whittaker can have success with his kicks at distance and timing change-ups in close, potentially producing his first finish since 2017. The pick is Whittaker by knockout in Round 3.

Prediction: Whittaker inside the distance

Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov start time, where to watch

As the main event, Whittaker and Aliskerov are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 5 p.m. ET. The fight broadcasts live on ABC and streams on ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ABC 6.