Tag: UFC on ABC 4 odds lines picks and predictions best bets

UFC on ABC 4: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 4 odds between Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry, with MMA picks and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Daniel Rodriguez and Ian Garry meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 4 at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 4: Rodriguez vs. Garry odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at noon ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Rodriguez is looking to rebound after a 3rd-round submission setback against Neil Magny last time out in November. That loss halted a 4-bout win streak, which included a split-decision win over Li Jingliang at UFC 279 in September.

“D-Rod” had gone the distance in 2 straight fights, and 4 of his previous 5, before the submission setback to Magny.

Garry has won each of his first 4 fights at the UFC level since making his debut in Nov. 2021. That includes a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Song Kenan last time out at UFC 285 on March 4. He has a pair of knockout wins in his UFC career, while also winning via unanimous decision on 2 occasions.

Garry is 11 years younger than his counterpart, while the southpaw Rodriguez holds a 7.42-to-6.79 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Garry is slightly more accurate with his strikes, landing 57.74% to just 52.04% for D-Rod.

UFC on ABC 4: Rodriguez vs. Garry odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:58 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Rodriguez +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Garry -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -135 | No +100)

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UFC on ABC 4: Rodriguez vs. Garry picks and predictions

Records: Rodriguez (17-3-0) | Garry (11-0-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Garry (-300) will cost you 3 times your potential return, which is too expensive for a standalone wager or as part of a multi-fighter parlay. Including the heavy favorite sucks all the value out of your ticket.

Instead, look to method of victory for a much better value. I like GARRY BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+125) at plus money.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the play, as I am expecting Garry to win by decision/technical decision.

Rodriguez has gone the distance in 4 of his past 6 fights, and 5 of his past 8 fights at the UFC level. Garry has gone the distance in 2 of the past 3 outings too, while going into Round 3 in each of the previous 3 fights.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ABC 4: Anthony Smith vs. Johnny Walker odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 4 odds between Anthony Smith and Johnny Walker, with MMA picks and predictions.

In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Anthony Smith and Johnny Walker meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 4 at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 4: Smith vs. Walker odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at noon ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Smith is looking to bounce back after suffering a 2nd-round KO/TKO setback against Magomed Ankalaev last time out at UFC 277 in July. However, he had picked up 3 consecutive 1st-round wins prior to that setback, including an impressive submission win over Ryan Spann in the main event of UFC Fight Night 192 in September 2021.

Smith is 2 inches shorter than Walker and has a 6-inch reach disadvantage. Walker is also 3 years younger and holds a 3.38-to-2.99 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.

Walker has won each of his previous 2 bouts, picking up a KO/TKO win against Paul Craig at UFC 283 in January and a submission victory against Ion Cutelaba at UFC 279 in September. He has had just 2 of his 10 fights go the distance since joining UFC.

UFC on ABC 4: Smith vs. Walker odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:25 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Smith -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Walker -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +115 | Under -150)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +280 | No -400)

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UFC on ABC 4: Smith vs. Walker picks and predictions

Records: Smith (36-17-0) | Walker (20-7-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

WALKER (-115) is a solid play straight up on the 2-way line despite that he has been a little erratic lately.  The Brazilian fighter has won his last 2 fights, but was also knocked out in the 1st round by Jamahal Hill as recently as Feb. 2022.

However, the reason to like Walker is that 6-inch reach advantage. He’ll be able to keep Smith at a distance as he picks and chooses his spots to go in for the big shot. He should be able to avoid letting Smith get next to him.

Walker also has a slight significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while the difference in the ground game is rather negligible.

Over/Under (O/U)

Do yourself a favor and don’t go for a trip to the kitchen when this fight comes on the television — if you blink, this one could be over. Well, Under.

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-150) is the play. Smith has fought into the 2nd round just once in the past 4 fights and Walker has 3 consecutive finishes in the 1st round. Walker has also not fought into Round 2 in 8 of his previous 10 bouts at the UFC level.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ABC 4: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 4 odds between Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida, with MMA picks and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout in the main event, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 4 at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 4: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at noon ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Rozenstruik takes the walk looking to build upon his 1st round knockout of Chris Daukaus last time out at UFC 282 in December. That victory halted a 2-bout losing streak, including a setback against Alexander Volkov in the previous outing. “Bigi Boy” has a 3-4 record across his last 7 bouts, with 2 losses via KO/TKO.

Almeida is not only 4-0 in his 4 bouts since making his UFC debut, but he has 2 KO/TKO and 2 submission wins. The Brazilian fighter has posted finishes in 13 consecutive pro fights since a unanimous decision loss to Bruno Assis at Shooto Brazil 80 back on Jan. 28, 2018.

Almeida holds a 4.19-to-2.93 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while landing 69.86% of those punches. He is also tremendous on the mat, managing a 6.73 takedown average, and a 70.59% takedown accuracy percentage with a 2.24 submission average.

UFC on ABC 4: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Rozenstruik +365 (bet $100 to win $365) | Almeida -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +160 | Under -225)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +650 | No -1600)

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UFC on ABC 4: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida picks and predictions

Records: Rozenstruik (13-4-0) | Almeida (18-2-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Almeida (-500) will cost you 5 times your potential return, and that’s just too much risk for not enough reward.

The Brazilian fighter gets stoppages and plenty of victories but it’s better to play the method of victory rather than just taking the fighter on the 2-way line.

I think Rozenstruik can hang around at least into Round 2. As such, I absolutely love ALMEIDA BY KO/TKO/DQ IN ROUND 2 (+1200) for a chance to multiply your initial wager by 12 times.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-1600): Will the fight go the distance? is absolutely ridiculous, and should be avoided. Instead, in this 5-round bout, I’d roll the dice on OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+160) for a chance to get a solid return. However, know that this fight must last until there is 1:29 remaining in Round 2, as some bettors tend to mix this wager up a little bit.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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