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UFC 304: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 304 odds between Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round welterweight championship bout in the co-main event, Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad meet Saturday at UFC 304 at Co-op Live in Manchester, United Kingdom. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).

Records: Edwards (22-3-0) | Muhammad (23-3-0)

The southpaw Edwards took the welterweight strap from Kamaru Usman with a 5th-round KO/TKO win at UFC 278 in August 2022. Edwards then defended the belt at UFC 286 with a majority-decision win in March 2023. In his next fight, his 2nd title defense, Edwards posted a unanimous-decision win over Colby Covington at UFC 296 in December.

Edwards has 4 straight wins since a no-contest against Muhammad in their 1st bout in a UFC Fight Night 187 main event in March 2021, which ended in an accidental eye poke early in Round 2.

Muhammad likes to fight long into the night, and PPV fans are likely to get their money’s worth. He has ended up going the distance 4 times in the past 5 bouts, including a win via unanimous decision against Gilbert Burns last time out at UFC 288 in May 2023. Muhammad has gone the distance in 12 of his past 15 bouts since Feb. 11, 2017.

Edwards has also ended up going the distance pretty frequently, including 3 of his past 4 fights, and 11 of the past 15 fights since July 18, 2015.

Edwards has a 2-inch reach advantage, and 3-inch height advantage. While Muhammad has a substantial 4.55-to-2.75 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, Edwards is more accurate with those strikes at 59.36%. Muhammad lands roughly half of his significant strikes at 50.31%.

In takedown average, Muhammad has a slight lead at 1.98-to-1.25, while the takedown-accuracy percentage is nearly identical. Edwards has a 0.42 submission average, to just 0.17 for Muhammad.

Watch the early prelims and prelims with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:51 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Edwards -265 (bet $265 to win $100) | Muhammad +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -215 | Under +162)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -190 | No +148)

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UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Edwards (-265) will set you back 2.65 times the potential return. That’s pretty risky in a bout featuring a pair of fighters who usually rely upon the judges to determine a winner.

Still, Edwards hasn’t lost since Dec. 19, 2015, nearly a decade of wins. If you were to toss the champ into a multi-leg parlay, it isn’t a bad bet. You just can’t bet this straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

It’s actually surprising YES (-190): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? isn’t a little more expensive, given the frequency these 2 fighters end up going the distance. Backing it straight up, risking 1.9 times the potential return, isn’t terribly attractive, but it is a sound bet. Tossing this into a Same-Game Parlay (SGP) or multi-leg ticket, isn’t a bad idea, either.

In addition, EDWARDS ON POINTS (+120) at plus-money, in front of his fellow countrymen in Manchester, should be a rather decent investment, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 60: Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 60 odds between Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s strawweight bout in the main event, Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 60 — also known as UFC Vegas 94 — at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 60: Lemos vs. Jandiroba odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 5:30 p.m. ET, also on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Lemos (14-3-1) | Jandiroba (20-3-0)

Lemos suffered a unanimous-decision loss at UFC 292 in her 1st championship bout against Zhang Weili in Aug. 2023. She bounced back with a unanimous-decision win over Mackenzie Dern last time out at UFC 298.

As the quality of opponent has increased, so has the distance of her fights. After finishing inside the distance in 5 of 6 bouts from March 2021 to Nov. 2022, she has gone the distance in each of the past 2 outings.

Jandiroba heads into this fight with 4 consecutive fights which have gone the distance, including 3 straight wins. Her last fight was March 30 against Loopy Godinez. The last time Jandiroba finished inside the distance was a TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage win against Kanako Murata in June 2021.

The southpaw Lemos holds a 1-inch reach advantage over her counterpart. Lemos also has a 3.43 significant strikes landed per minute, to just 2.30 for Jandiroba. Lemos also has a slight 58.74%-to-57.70% significant strikes accuracy percentage.

On the mat, Jandrioba has racked up a 2.36 takedown average, and 1.25 submission average. Lemos will definitely want to try and keep this fight upright, as Jandiroba’s biggest advantage is on the canvas.

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UFC on ESPN 60: Lemos vs. Jandiroba odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Lemos +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Jandiroba -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -112 | Under -112)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +142 | No -182)

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UFC on ESPN 60: Lemos vs. Jandiroba picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

LEMOS (+110) is a strong play as a short ‘dog against Jandiroba (-134).

Lemos has been a championship contender, and she knows what it takes to get the job done, especially when it comes to wowing the judges.

Since arriving at the UFC level, Lemos has 4 decisions, with 3 victories. Jandiroba has ended up going the distance in each of her past 4 fights. As such, go with LEMOS BY POINTS (+500) lightly for a chance to multiply up by 5 times.

Over/Under (O/U)

It’s rather surprising that YES (+142): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is plus-money. Again, Lemos has gone the distance in each of her past 2 fights, including a 5-round outing against Zhang. And Jandiroba has ended up needing the help of the judges to determine a winner in 4 straight fights.

If you don’t want to declare a winner, but still want action in the main event, playing the distance is a solid wager.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 60: Steve Garcia vs. SeungWoo Choi odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 60 odds between Steve Garcia vs. SeungWoo Choi, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Steve Garcia and SeungWoo Choi meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 60 — also known as UFC Vegas 94 — at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 60: Garcia vs. Choi odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 5:30 p.m. ET, also on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Garcia (15-5-0) | Choi (11-6-0)

Garcia, a.k.a. “Mean Machine,” heads into this bout with 3 consecutive KO/TKO victories since a loss June 2022 against Maheshate at UFC 275. He definitely hasn’t gone the longest yard lately, last going the distance in a unanimous-decision loss against Luis Pena in his company debut Feb. 29, 2020.

Garcia has back-to-back Round 2 wins over Melquizael Costa and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, with a Round 1 knockout of Chase Hooper before that. The southpaw is a punching machine, recording 4.85 significant strikes landed per minute, while accurately landing those fights at a 64.23% rate.

Choi snapped a 3-bout loss with a unanimous-decision victory over Jarno Errens last time out 11 months ago. Before that, Choi lost via KO/TKO to Michael Trizano, via split-decision to Josh Culibao at UFC 275, and via submission to Alex Caceres. The fact he has lost in a multitude of ways is not good news facing a hard-hitting opponent in Garcia.

Choi has managed 3.48 significant strikes per minute, while landing just 50.53% of those strikes. He also has a slight disadvantage in takedown average at 0.87, to a 1.31 mark for Garcia.

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UFC on ESPN 60: Garcia vs. Choi odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Garcia -154 (bet $154 to win $100) | Choi +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +144 | Under -186)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +360 | No -600)

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UFC on ESPN 60: Garcia vs. Choi picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

GARCIA (-154) is a solid play at a moderate favorite, as he can win a number of ways, especially via knockout.

On the flip side, Choi (+130) has struggled with consistency and defense lately. He just doesn’t match up well with Garcia, who has been a knockout king in recent matches. While Choi likely doesn’t want to go toe-to-toe in a brawl, going to the mat isn’t his specialty, either. In fact, he is 0-2 via submission in his pro career.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-600): Will the fight go the distance? will cost you 6 times your potential return, which is way too expensive. Instead, let’s get a little more specific.

Garcia hasn’t needed the help of the judges since his UFC debut in Feb. 2020. In fact, he hasn’t been past the midway point of Round 2 in each of the previous 5 outings.

However, instead of playing No on the distance, instead, take a look at Method of Victory, and back GARCIA BY KO/TKO (+130) at plus-money, which is a shockingly good value.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 60: Dooho Choi vs. Bill Algeo odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 60 odds between Dooho Choi vs. Bill Algeo, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Dooho Choi and Bill Algeo meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 60 — also known as UFC Vegas 94 — at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 60: Choi vs. Algeo odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 5:30 p.m. ET, also on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Choi (14-4-1) | Algeo (18-8-0)

Choi snapped a 3-bout losing skid last time out. Sort of. He fought to a draw against Kyle Nelson in early Feb. 2023, after losing the previous 2 bouts via Round 2 KO/TKO against Charles Jourdain and Jeremy Stephens, while falling to Cub Swanson at UFC 206 via unanimous decision, a fight of the year nominee.

His last victory came Dec. 10, 2016, in a unanimous-decision win over Thiago Tavares, a fight that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.

Choi has cited numerous injuries over the years, pulling out of scheduled fights. He suffered a fractured arm in the KO/TKO loss to Jourdain, and he had some personal issues outside of the octagon in 2021, which led to a fight hiatus, too.

For Algeo, he is looking to bounce back from a 1st-round KO/TKO to Nelson in late March. He is 4-2 in the past 6 fights, including a KO/TKO win against Herbert Burns, a submission win over TJ Brown and 2 unanimous-decision victories. He has shown tremendous versatility, and he’ll put Choi’s defense to the test.

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UFC on ESPN 60: Choi vs. Algeo odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:22 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Choi +148 (bet $100 to win $148) | Algeo -176 (bet $176 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -190 | Under +148)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -148 | No +116)

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UFC on ESPN 60: Choi vs. Algeo picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

ALGEO (-176) is a little on the pricey side, but he’s a strong play against Choi (+148).

Choi just has been in and out of the octagon, logging just 3 UFC fights since Dec. 2016. And he hasn’t won since July 2016. While the South Korean fighter always makes it difficult for his opponent, one has to wonder about his cardio or stamina.

The fact Choi hasn’t won in nearly 8 years is already a red flag. And he is facing Algeo, a fighter hungry to get back into the win column after losing in Round 1 last time out.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (+116): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is worth a look at plus-money, as Choi just hasn’t had a lot of fights under his belt in the past 8 years. For the South Korean to go the distance, it wouldn’t be quite a surprise.

Since making his UFC debut in Nov. 2014, Choi has gone the distance just twice.

Algeo has ended up going the distance twice in the past 5 fights, but he has also ended 2 of his past 3 bouts before the midway point of Round 2.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 59: Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 59 odds between Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s flyweight bout in the main event, Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 59 at Ball Arena in Denver. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 59: Namajunas vs. Cortez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Namajunas (13-6-0) | Cortez (11-1-0)

Namajunas fights in her 2nd consecutive fight night main event. She took care of Amanda Ribas last time out UFC on ESPN 53 back in late March. “Thug” has ended up going the distance in each of her past 4 fights, including a championship defense against Zhang Weili at UFC 268 on Nov. 6, 2021, while also losing via split-decision to Carla Esparza at UFC 271 to lose her strap.

Cortez is quickly rising through the ranks with 5 straight wins since joining the UFC level. Her past 7 professional bouts have ended up going the distance dating back to a split-decision win over Erin Blanchfield at Invicta FC 54 Feb. 15, 2019.

Cortez, who is married to fellow UFC fight Brian Ortega, is quickly rising through the ranks. She is a perfect 5-for-5 since joining the company, while also taking care of Mariya Agapova in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 3, Week 6. She has won 11 straight pro bouts since losing her career debut to Cheri Muraski at Invicta FC 25 by submission back on Aug. 31, 2017.

Cortez holds a slight half-inch reach advantage, while she has a slight 4.11-to-3.69 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over the veteran Namajunas. Cortez is also much more accurate with those strikes at 61.55% to 45.79%, while posting a 2.33-to-1.38 takedown average advantage. The difference in takedown accuracy percentage and submission average is negligible.

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UFC on ESPN 59: Namajunas vs. Cortez odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Namajunas -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Cortez +190 (bet $100 to win $190)
  • Fight to start Round 5: (Yes -350 | Under +225)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -275 | No +200)

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UFC on ESPN 59: Namajunas vs. Cortez picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Namajunas (-225) is a former champ at this weight division, and it wasn’t very long ago she was decorated with the belt. In fact, she has 2 championship bout wins, and 2 successful title defenses before losing the belt. She is tough, and she is experienced. However, risking more than 2 times your potential return against a challenger unbeaten at the UFC level is risky business.

Cortez (+190) has the impressive record, but she has also fought a lot of tomato cans along the way. Facing Namajunas is a giant step up in competition. Look for the champ to take care of business, wowing the judges. NAMAJUNAS BY DECISION (-110) is the way to go.

Over/Under (O/U)

There are no Over/Under round bets for this fight. It’s simply a prop on whether the bell rings to start Round 5, and Yes (-350) will set you back 3 1/2 times your potential return. That’s still a bit risky.

Yes (-275): Fight to go the distance? is also still quite pricey, and not a recommended play unless you fold it into a multi-leg parlay of some sort.

PASS, unless betting the distance as a leg of your multi-pronged parlay.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 59: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 59 odds between Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 59 at Ball Arena in Denver. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 59: Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Ponzinibbio (30-7-0) | Salikhov (19-5-0)

Ponzinibbio suffered a 3rd-round KO/TKO loss to Kevin Holland at UFC 287 in his most recent appearance. His previous 2 fights have ended via knockout, although 3 of his 5 bouts have gone the distance. He did top Alex Morono via KO/TKO at UFC 282 Dec. 10, 2022 for his most recent win.

Salikhov has consecutive losses to Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby, with his last win coming via KO/TKO in Round 3 against Andre Fialho Nov. 19, 2022. He is in the midst of a 1-3 skid across his past 4 fights, with just one of those bouts going the distance.

The Argentine fighter has a 3-inch reach advantage over Salikhov, and the latter is 3 years older at 40. Ponzinibbio has a 4.90-to-3.36 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while the Russian is much more accurate on those strikes at 53.94% to 42.53%.

Salikhov also does great work getting fighters to the ground, which can wow the judges should it come to that. He has a 1.27 takedown average, and 40.91% takedown accuracy percentage, while Ponzinibbio barely scratches the surface at 0.48 and 30.0% respectively.

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UFC on ESPN 59: Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ponzinibbio -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Salikhov +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -105 | Under -125)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +120 | No -160)

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UFC on ESPN 59: Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Ponzinibbio (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return on a straight-up wager, and that’s a little too risky on a fighter which has won just once in the past 4 outings since June 5, 2021.

Salikhov (+150) is in the same boat, however, as he has dropped 3 of his past 4 fights, too.

Salikhov has been knocked out in 2 of his past 4 fights, and that’s worth pursuing further. PONZINIBBIO BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+175) on the 7-way line is a solid value given Salikhov’s recent lack of defense.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-125) is the play in this lead-up to the main event.

We’re calling for Ponzinibbio to the get KO/TKO, and it will likely come in Rounds 1 or 2. If you’re really adventurous, consider PONZINIBBIO IN ROUND 1 (+325) and PONZINIBBIO IN ROUND 2 (+550) in round betting. Yes, you’ll lose one of those ends if he wins in either of the 2 rounds, but you’ll still be well ahead if it happens.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 59: Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 59 odds between Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, Drew Dober and Jean Silva meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 59 at Ball Arena in Denver. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 59: Dober vs. Silva odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Dober (27-13-0) | Silva (13-2-0)

The veteran Dober is coming off a unanimous-decision loss against Renato Moicano in early February. Going the distance was a rarity, as his previous 5 fights had been decided via KO/TKO, with 4 wins and 1 loss. The last time he went the distance was against Brad Riddell at UFC 263 in June 2021.

Silva has made 2 appearances at the UFC level, both victories via KO/TKO against Westin Wilson and Charles Jourdain. He stopped Jourdain in Round 2 at UFC 303 last time out June 29. His last professional loss came April 21, 2018 at San Jose Super Fight Qualifying: SJSF in a unanimous-decision setback against Gabriel Schlupp de Lima.

The southpaw Dober has a slight 1-inch reach advantage, while Silva has a 5.71-to-4.34 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Silva is more accurate at 54.44% to 45.80% for Dober, too.

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UFC on ESPN 59: Dober vs. Silva odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Dober -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Silva -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -135 | Under +105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +230 | No -350)

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UFC on ESPN 59: Dober vs. Silva picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

SILVA (-115) is the up-and-comer who is rising quickly, while Dober (-105) is the veteran at 35 years old with a lot of mileage on his tires.

The Elevation Fight Team member Dober has averaged about 2 fights per year since March 2022, going 4-2 with 4 KO/TKO wins in the span. The fights generally do not go very long. Silva has 2 knockouts in 2 UFC fights, and he’ll be eager to engage Dober early in a brawl.

For method of victory, SILVA BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+175) on the method of victory 7-way line is a solid value.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-135) is the lean, but go lightly on this particular play.

Dober has been past the halfway mark of Round 2 in 3 of his past 5 fights, with 2 of those bouts ending in Round 1.

Each of Silva’s fights have ended before the midway point of Round 2, but this is a big step up in competition, and it will be tougher for Silva to get Dober finished off early.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 303: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 303 odds between Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round light heavyweight bout in the main event, Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka meet Saturday at UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Pereira (10-2-0) | Prochazka (30-4-1)

We’ve been here before. These 2 fighters met at UFC 295, with Pereira taking Prochazka’s belt with a KO/TKO late in Round 2. Prochazka had just won the strap at UFC 275 against Glover Teixeira with a 5th-round submission win.

Prochazka bounced back from the disappointment of his 1st loss to Pereira, knocking out Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 300 in Round 2 to get a little bit of his swagger back.

Pereira successfully defended his belt at UFC 300 by breezing past Jamahal Hill with a 1st-round knockout at 3:14. He has won 3 straight fights, including a split-decision win over Jan Blachowicz, since he lost his title the first time to Israel Adesanya at UFC 287.

Prochazka is 5 years younger, and he has a slight 1-inch reach advantage, while Pereira has the slight 1-inch height advantage.

Prochazka has a slight 5.75-to-5.10 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although the champ Pereira is far more accurate at 69.21% on those strikes, with Prochazka checking in at 59.25%. Prochazka has a slight 0.79-to-0.18 takedown average, too.

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UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:56 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Pereira -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Prochazka +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +125 | Under -165)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +350 | No -600)

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UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

PROCHAZKA (+130) is a solid play as the slight underdog in this light heavyweight title bout.

I can see the trilogy setting up here. These are 2 fighters who are rather evenly matched, and both are championship caliber. These 2 could potentially meet again for the strap in a decisive 3rd fight around the holidays if Prochazka can, indeed, be victorious.

If the Czechian fighter gets the job done, he’ll likely win via knockout. As such, PROCHAZKA BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+150) at plus-money on the 5-way line is certainly worth a roll of the dice.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-165) is a little expensive, but it’s the right call in this main event.

Pereira has ended up going the distance just once in the past 6 fights, with 5 of those bouts ending via KO/TKO. He hasn’t found past the midway point of Round 3 in 3 of his past 4 outings.

For Prochazka, he did have that Teixeira fight go into Round 5, but his other 4 fights at the UFC level have ended in Round 2.

No (-600): Will the fight go the distance? is simply way too expensive, costing 6 times your potential return. Even as part of a multi-team parlay, there is no value in it.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 303: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 303 odds between Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes meet Saturday at UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 303: Ortega vs. Lopes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Ortega (16-3-0) | Lopes (24-6-0)

Ortega avenged a 1st-round KO/TKO to Yair Rodriguez in a fight night main event in July 2022, posting a 3rd-round submission win in late February. It was just Ortega’s 2nd win in the past 5 events, which included title fight losses to Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski.

Lopes has 3 straight victories, all by stoppage, including a pair of 1st-round KO/TKO wins against Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff in his past 2 bouts. The win streak also includes a Round 1 win via submission against Gavin Tucker in Aug. 2023.

Lopes enters this bout with a 3.5-inch reach advantage, and he is also 3 inches taller and 4 years younger than Ortega.

The switch-stance fighter Ortega holds a 4.07-to-3.22 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Lopes is far more accurate on those strikes at 62.25% to just 40.39% for Ortega.

Ortega is good in the takedown game, posting a 1.17 average and 27.27% takedown accuracy percentage, but Lopes has a dominant 5.03 submission average.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 303: Ortega vs. Lopes odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ortega +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Lopes -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +110 | Under -145)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +140 | No -190)

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UFC 303: Ortega vs. Lopes picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

LOPES (-150) is worth a look straight up on the 2-way line, if you just want to declare a winner, and you don’t care how he gets his hand raised.

Ortega (+125) has struggled recently, losing 3 times in the past 5 outings. He just isn’t that accurate with his significant strikes, and Lopes figures to use his tremendous reach advantage to pull Ortega in and out at his discretion, choosing the right time to strike.

If you’re like to go with a method of victory, LOPES BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+125) on the 5-way line for plus-money is certainly a nice value.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-145) is a little on the pricey side, but it’s worth a roll of the dice.

When Lopes gets a finish, which is what we’re expecting, he doesn’t fool around. Since a unanimous-decision loss to Movsar Evloev at UFC 288 in his company debut, Lopes has won 3 straight fights via Round 1 finishes.

NO (-190): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a little too expensive for my liking, costing you nearly 2 times your potential return. However, if you were to fold this into a multi-leg parlay, or an SGP, it would be OK.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 303: Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 303 odds between Anthony Smith and Roman Dolidze, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round light heavyweight bout on the main card, Anthony Smith and Roman Dolidze meet Saturday at UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 303: Smith vs. Dolidze odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Smith (38-19-0) | Dolidze (12-3-0)

Smith picked up a 1st-round submission victory last time out at UFC 301 against Vitor Petrino. Despite the win, he has still lost 3 of his past 5 bouts.

Smith has ended up going the distance just twice in the past 8 events, with 3 submission wins, 2 KO/TKO losses, a split-decision win, a unanimous-decision loss and a TKO (doctor’s stoppage) win against Jimmy Crute at UFC 261.

The Georgian fighter Dolidze has lost back-to-back fights via decision to Nassourdine Imavov and Marvin Vettori. Prior to that he had 3 KO/TKO victories.

Both fighters are 35 years old, and each combatant has a 76-inch reach and orthodox stance. Smith holds a slight 3.23-to-2.62 significant strikes landed per minute advantage while also being slightly more accurate at 51.93%, to just 49.42% for Dolidze.

In addition, Dolidze does better work on the ground, posting a 1.30 takedown average and 40.91% takedown accuracy percentage, with a 1.30 submission average.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 303: Smith vs. Dolidze odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Smith +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Dolidze -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -115 | Under -115)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +110 | No -150)

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UFC 303: Smith vs. Dolidze picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

DOLIDZE (-140) is a solid play in this main card bout. Smith (+115) has been a little inconsistent lately, and he has suffered 5 losses in 10 bouts since May 2020. In 3 of those bouts, Smith was dropped via KO/TKO.

On the flip side, Dolidze is a knockout machine, topping Kyle Daukaus, Phil Hawes and Jack Hermansson via KO/TKO in 3 straight fights from June-December 2022.

Dolidze isn’t a bad play on the 2-way line straight up, but if you’re a little more adventurous, taking DOLIDZE BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+175) for the method of victory is certainly worth a roll of the dice, too, given the Georgian’s success via knockout.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-115) is a strong play, as we’re calling the KO/TKO finish. Dolidze has ended up going past the midway point of Round 2 in 3 straight fights, so there is some risk here. In addition, Smith has ended up going the distance in each of his past 2 bouts.

However, Smith’s defense isn’t great at times, and Dolidze can end things quickly.

Without declaring a winner, you could also select the exact round the fight will end. ROUND 1 (+275) and ROUND 2 (+350) are good plays. If the fight ends in either round, you obviously lose one end, but you’re still ahead.

If you’re a little more conservative, NO (-150): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? could be a strong play, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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