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In a bantamweight bout on the main card, Frankie Edgar will take on Chris Gutierrez on Saturday at UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC 281: Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims and prelims are available on ESPN+ with the early prelims at 6 p.m. ET and the prelims at 8 p.m. ET. The main card is available via pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET.

This will be Edgar’s big sendoff as he announced that he will retire from MMA after Saturday’s fight. The 41-year-old former UFC Lightweight Champion has made quite a name for himself since joining the company in 2007. “The Answer” has dropped 4 of his last 5 fights, losing his last 2 by KO/TKO, including a 3rd round defeat to Marlon Vera at UFC 268 on Nov. 6, 2021, in his last bout. Edgar is 1-2 since making his bantamweight debut in August 2020.

Gutierrez is hitting his prime at 31 years old. “El Guapo” is 6-0-1 in his last 7 fights, winning his last bout against Danaa Batgerel by KO/TKO in March, finishing things in the 2nd round with a spinning back fist and a flurry of elbows. That win earned Gutierrez Performance of the Night accolades.

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UFC 281: Edgar vs. Gutierrez odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

• Fight result (2-way line): Edgar +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Gutierrez -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
• Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -190 | Under +135)
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-145) | No (+105)

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UFC 281: Edgar vs. Gutierrez picks and predictions

Records: Edgar (23-10-1) | Gutierrez (18-3-2)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Gutierrez is 10 years younger and 3 inches taller but Edgar has much more fight experience and will give his all in his final fight. Edgar should lean on his grappling experience and try to take this fight to the mat. He boasts a takedown average of 2.3 to Gutierrez’s 0.44 average.

Gutierrez is much more refined as a striker with an impressive 59% significant striking accuracy compared to Edgar’s 41%. Gutierrez will try to keep this fight off the ground and look for holes in Edgar’s striking game to land a couple of nice blows.

In the end, Gutierrez is on a tremendous run and climbing the ranks of the UFC’s bantamweight division. While Edgar is the better grappler, Gutierrez has a pretty good takedown defense (73%) so he should be able to keep this fight standing up and control the striking game, maybe notching a TKO or KO in the process.

However, the moneyline payout on Gutierrez (-230) isn’t great, so PASS on this straight up but feel free to include it in a parlay.

Over/Under (O/U)

Four of Edgar’s last 6 fights went over 2.5 rounds while 5 of Gutierrez’s last 7 have gone over as well. Edgar’s cardio is great for his age and he’ll use that to his advantage, so it seems likely that this one will hit the 3rd round.

LEAN OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-190).

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