Tag: UFC odds lines picks predictions best bets MMA odds

UFC on ESPN 45: Alex Caceres vs. Daniel Pineda odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 45 odds and lines between Alex Caceres vs. Daniel Pineda with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a featherweight bout on the main card, Alex Caceres and Daniel Pineda meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 45 — also known as UFC Vegas 74 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 45: Caceres vs. Pineda odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Caceres got back on track with a 1st-round KO/TKO of Julian Erosa in December after suffering a unanimous decision setback against Sodiq Yusuff in mid-March 2022. “Bruce Leeroy” is now 6-1 across his last 7 bouts, including 3 unanimous-decision wins, the KO/TKO victory and a pair of submission wins.

Pineda has had an interesting recent history. Since arriving at the UFC level, he has a pair of stoppage wins, a KO/TKO loss to Cub Swanson and a No Contest against Andre Fili. The title winner from Fury FC back in 2018, Pineda hasn’t gone the distance in any of his 4 UFC bouts.

UFC on ESPN 45: Caceres vs. Pineda odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:34 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Pineda +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Caceres -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -190 | Under +145)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -175)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

UFC on ESPN 45: Caceres vs. Pineda picks and predictions

Records: Caceres (20-13-0) | Pineda (28-14-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

CACERES (-175) on the 2-way line is the safe play, as the veteran takes on a relative UFC newcomer that’s had a roller coaster start to his career with the company.

The favorite has managed finishes in 3 of his past 5 fights, with a KO/TKO win and a pair of submission victories.

CACERES BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+250) on the 7-way Method of Victory line is worth a roll of the dice for a chance to multiply your initial wager by 2 1/2 times.

If you don’t want to declare a winner, but still want action on the fight, taking KO/TKO/DQ (+175) for the method of victory, regardless of who gets their hand raised, is also a solid wager.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (-175): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is a little on the steep side, but it’s worth a play. I believe Bruce Leeroy gets the knockout victory. In addition, Caceres knocked out Erosa in Round 1 last time out, and 2 of his 3 KO/TKO results at the UFC level came in the first 3-plus minutes.

As a result, I like UNDER 1.5 ROUND (+145) at plus money for a solid value.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC on ESPN 45: Kai Kara-France vs. Amir Albazi odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 45 odds and lines between Kai Kara-France vs. Amir Albazi with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a flyweight bout in the main event, Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 45 — also known as UFC Vegas 74 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 45: Kara-France vs. Albazi odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Kara-France is coming off a 3rd-round KO/TKO title fight loss against Brandon Moreno at UFC 277 in July 2022. That halted a 3-bout win streak which included a knockout of Cody Garbrandt at UFC 269 in Dec. 2021.

Kara-France has secured victories in 7 of his 10 fights since arriving at the UFC level, with 6 of those 10 bouts needing the help of the judges to decide a winner. He has 2 wins via KO/TKO, with one loss via the KO/TKO, and he was also submitted by Brandon Royval at UFC 253 in Sept. 2020.

Albazi is on a 5-fight win streak, including all 4 of his fights since arriving at the UFC level. He picked up a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Alessandro Costa last time out in mid-December and just one of his fights has ended up going the distance.

The 30-year-old Kara-France holds a 4.70-to-3.54 significant strikes landed per minute at the UFC level, although Albazi easily has the advantage in the ground game with a 2.47 takedown average and 0.82 submission average, compared to a 0.51 takedown average and 0.00 submission average for Kara-France.

UFC on ESPN 45: Kara-France vs. Albazi odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:02 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Kara-France -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Albazi -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +125)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +110 | No -140)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

UFC on ESPN 45: Kara-France vs. Albazi picks and predictions

Records: Kara-France (24-10-0) | Albazi (16-1-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

KARA-FRANCE (-105) is a slight underdog, but this opponent is a huge step up for Albazi.

It’s been more than 8 calendar years since Kara-France has lost consecutive fights, falling in the 3 straight outings at the Australian Fighting Championship, Malaysia Invasion 2 Grand Finals and Kunlun Fight 18, back in 2014 and 2015.

Kara-France throws a lot of punches, although he isn’t nearly as accurate as Albazi. “The Prince” Albazi lands his significant strikes at 53.77% rate compared to just 44.58% for the underdog.

As long as Kara-France can avoid going to the mat, where Albazi is a stud, he should be able to outlast the Iraqi flyweight who fights out of Xtreme Couture.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (+110): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is a solid value play at plus money. Kara-France will look to frustrate Albazi and keep the fight upright.

While Albazi has gone the distance in just 1 of his 4 fights at the UFC level, Kara-France has needed the assistance of the judges to figure out a winner in 6 of his 10 fights in the UFC.

OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-165) is not priced out of line if you’d like a little wiggle room for a potential finish in the 2nd half of Round 4 or all of Round 5.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC Fight Night 224: Andre Fialho vs. Joaquin Buckley odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Andre Fialho vs. Joaquin Buckley with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Andre Fialho and Joaquin Buckley meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Fialho vs. Buckley odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Fialho has dropped 2 straight fights, both via KO/TKO, suffering a 3rd-round setback against Muslim Salikhov in November and a 2nd round defeat to Jake Matthews in June. Each of his past 4 fights has ended via knockout, with 2 wins and 2 losses.

Buckley is also on a 2-bout losing streak. He was knocked out by Chris Curtis in the 2nd round at UFC 282 last time out in December and suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Nassourdine Imavov in early September.

Buckley has a 2-inch reach advantage and a slight 3.87-to-3.17 significant strikes landed per minute. Neither of the fighters is particularly accurate with the strikes, with Fialho posting a 41.43% significant strike accuracy to 35.01% for Buckley. Buckley is better in the takedown game, posting an average of 1.23 to 0.00 for Fialho, with a 30.43% takedown accuracy percentage.

UFC Fight Night 224: Fialho vs. Buckley odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:22 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Fialho +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Buckley -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -135 | Under +105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

UFC Fight Night 224: Fialho vs. Buckley picks and predictions

Records: Fialho (16-6-0) | Buckley (15-6-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Buckley (-225) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s risky business on a guy entering the octagon on a 2-bout losing skid.

PASS, and look to the method of victory instead. Fialho hasn’t been great on defense, and playing BUCKLEY BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-105) at near even money on the 5-way line is a much better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-250): Fight to go the distance? is a little too costly, and there is no value in playing it.

However, I do think OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-135) is a strong play as I don’t think we’ll see a Round 1 result. Even the 2 fights that Fialho was knocked out went to at least 2:24 of the 2nd Round.

The past 5 fights for Buckley have lasted until 2:49 of the 2nd Round or later, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC Fight Night 224: Emily Ducote vs. Loopy Godinez odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Emily Ducote vs. Loopy Godinez with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s catch weight bout on the main card, Emily Ducote and Loopy Godinez meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Ducote vs. Godinez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Ducote won her UFC debut against Jessica Penne in mid-July by unanimous-decision. She returned to the octagon in December and was beaten by Angela Hill, also by unanimous decision. The judges have determined the winner in 4 of her last 6 pro bouts.

Godinez picked up a split-decision win over Cynthia Calvillo in her most recent bout at UFC 287 in early April. Godinez also made her UFC debut against Penne, suffering a split-decision loss in April 2021, and has gone the distance in 6 of 7 fights since — including her last 5.

Ducote has a 2-inch reach advantage and holds a big 6.23-to-3.42 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Godinez is slightly more accurate on strikes at 56.64%, while Ducote lands just 50.26%.

UFC Fight Night 224: Ducote vs. Godinez odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:03 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ducote +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Godinez -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -300 | No +210)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

UFC Fight Night 224: Ducote vs. Godinez picks and predictions

Records: Ducote (12-7-0) | Godinez (9-3-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

GODINEZ (-160) has more experience at the UFC level, and she’ll use that to her advantage against the relative newcomer.

Godinez has won 3 of her last 4 fights, is much better in the ground game and is slightly more accurate with her significant strikes. As long as the Mexican fighter can avoid the big blow from Ducote, who holds a 2-inch reach advantage, she’ll get it done.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-300): Fight to go the distance? is too expensive, costing you nearly 3 times your potential return. AVOID.

Instead, look to the Method of Victory, playing GODINEZ ON POINTS (-110) at nearly even money. Each of her past 5 fights has gone the distance, including 4 unanimous decisions, and both of Ducote’s bouts at the UFC level have gone the distance as well. The judges are likely to be involved.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC Fight Night 224: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Anthony Hernandez odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Edmen Shahbazyan and Anthony Hernandez with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a middleweight bout on the main card, Edmen Shahbazyan and Anthony Hernandez meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Shahbazyan halted a 3-bout losing streak last time out with a 2nd-round KO/TKO win over Dalcha Lungiambula at UFC 282 in December. He had been knocked out in 2 of those 3 losses while suffering a unanimous-decision defeat against Jack Hermansson in the one fight that went the distance.

“The Golden Boy” has had 4 of his past 5 fights end in KO/TKO, with 2 wins and 2 losses across the stretch. Just that fight against Hermansson has gone the distance in 7 contests since joining the UFC.

Hernandez heads to the octagon with a 3-fight win streak in tow with 2 submission victories. He posted a 3rd-round submission victory over Marc-Andre Barriault in mid-September last time out.

Four of 6 fights have ended up via submission (3-1) for “Fluffy” since he arrived at the UFC level in Feb. 2019, while a 5th fight ended with a KO/TKO loss to Kevin Holland in May 2020. His lone fight to go the distance was a unanimous-decision victory over Josh Fremd at UFC 273 in April 2022.

UFC Fight Night 224: Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:44 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Shahbazyan +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Hernandez -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

UFC Fight Night 224: Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez picks and predictions

Records: Shahbazyan (12-3-0) | Hernandez (10-2-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Hernandez (-210) will cost you over 2 times your potential return if you want to play the favorite on the 2-way line. That’s not a recommended play, so AVOID.

Instead, HERNANDEZ BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+100) at even money is a much better bet on the Method of Victory 5-way line. You’ll be a winner there as long as Hernandez wins by any method other than decision.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-210): Fight to go the distance? is way too expensive, costing you more than 2 times your potential return. That’s too risky, and not a good long-term betting strategy playing such heavy favorites.

Check out some Round Betting options instead. I like HERNANDEZ IN ROUND 2 (+450) and HERNANDEZ IN ROUND 3 (+900). If he wins in one of those rounds, you will lose one end, but you’ll still be quite a bit in the black.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC Fight Night 224: Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a woman’s strawweight bout in the main event, Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Dern vs. Hill odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Dern takes the walk looking to bounce back from a majority decision setback against Yan Xiaonan in the main event of Fight Night 211 in October. The Brazilian fight is 0-2 in main event fights as she previously lost to Marina Rodriguez by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 194 in Oct. 2021. Dern has gone the distance in each of her last 3 bouts.

Hill was in a tailspin, going 1-5 in a 6-bout stretch from May 2020 to May 2022 but she has picked up unanimous-decision wins over Loopy Godinez in August and Emily Ducote in December to right the ship. Hill has gone the distance in each of her past 9 bouts.

Hill holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage and has an impressive 5.68-to-3.02 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Hill also has a 29.27% takedown accuracy percentage but Dern may be more dangerous on the mat with a 1.82 submission average to just 0.10 for Hill.

UFC Fight Night 224: Dern vs. Hill odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:24 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Dern -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Hill +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +150)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -135 | No +100)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

UFC Fight Night 224: Dern vs. Hill picks and predictions

Records: Dern (12-3-0) | Hill (15-12-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

HILL (+150) is a solid value as a moderate underdog. Dern has dropped 2 of her last 3 fights, both main events, and Hill should be able to do enough to wow the judges to get the victory.

Hill lands a lot more punches than Dern and should be able to do more to impress judges. The only way Hill will be at a disadvantage is if Dern can get this fight to the fence or mat and keep it there.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the best play on the board.

Dern has gone the distance in each of the previous 3 bouts, while Hill has needed the judges to decide a winner in each of her past 9 outings.

It’s hard to believe that this number isn’t much, much higher, so take advantage. However, AVOID playing Over 3.5 Rounds (-200), as risking 2 times your potential return is just too expensive.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC on ABC 4: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 4 odds between Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry, with MMA picks and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Daniel Rodriguez and Ian Garry meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 4 at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 4: Rodriguez vs. Garry odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at noon ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Rodriguez is looking to rebound after a 3rd-round submission setback against Neil Magny last time out in November. That loss halted a 4-bout win streak, which included a split-decision win over Li Jingliang at UFC 279 in September.

“D-Rod” had gone the distance in 2 straight fights, and 4 of his previous 5, before the submission setback to Magny.

Garry has won each of his first 4 fights at the UFC level since making his debut in Nov. 2021. That includes a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Song Kenan last time out at UFC 285 on March 4. He has a pair of knockout wins in his UFC career, while also winning via unanimous decision on 2 occasions.

Garry is 11 years younger than his counterpart, while the southpaw Rodriguez holds a 7.42-to-6.79 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Garry is slightly more accurate with his strikes, landing 57.74% to just 52.04% for D-Rod.

UFC on ABC 4: Rodriguez vs. Garry odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:58 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Rodriguez +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Garry -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -135 | No +100)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

UFC on ABC 4: Rodriguez vs. Garry picks and predictions

Records: Rodriguez (17-3-0) | Garry (11-0-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Garry (-300) will cost you 3 times your potential return, which is too expensive for a standalone wager or as part of a multi-fighter parlay. Including the heavy favorite sucks all the value out of your ticket.

Instead, look to method of victory for a much better value. I like GARRY BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+125) at plus money.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the play, as I am expecting Garry to win by decision/technical decision.

Rodriguez has gone the distance in 4 of his past 6 fights, and 5 of his past 8 fights at the UFC level. Garry has gone the distance in 2 of the past 3 outings too, while going into Round 3 in each of the previous 3 fights.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC on ABC 4: Anthony Smith vs. Johnny Walker odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 4 odds between Anthony Smith and Johnny Walker, with MMA picks and predictions.

In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Anthony Smith and Johnny Walker meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 4 at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 4: Smith vs. Walker odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at noon ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Smith is looking to bounce back after suffering a 2nd-round KO/TKO setback against Magomed Ankalaev last time out at UFC 277 in July. However, he had picked up 3 consecutive 1st-round wins prior to that setback, including an impressive submission win over Ryan Spann in the main event of UFC Fight Night 192 in September 2021.

Smith is 2 inches shorter than Walker and has a 6-inch reach disadvantage. Walker is also 3 years younger and holds a 3.38-to-2.99 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.

Walker has won each of his previous 2 bouts, picking up a KO/TKO win against Paul Craig at UFC 283 in January and a submission victory against Ion Cutelaba at UFC 279 in September. He has had just 2 of his 10 fights go the distance since joining UFC.

UFC on ABC 4: Smith vs. Walker odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:25 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Smith -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Walker -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +115 | Under -150)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +280 | No -400)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

UFC on ABC 4: Smith vs. Walker picks and predictions

Records: Smith (36-17-0) | Walker (20-7-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

WALKER (-115) is a solid play straight up on the 2-way line despite that he has been a little erratic lately.  The Brazilian fighter has won his last 2 fights, but was also knocked out in the 1st round by Jamahal Hill as recently as Feb. 2022.

However, the reason to like Walker is that 6-inch reach advantage. He’ll be able to keep Smith at a distance as he picks and chooses his spots to go in for the big shot. He should be able to avoid letting Smith get next to him.

Walker also has a slight significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while the difference in the ground game is rather negligible.

Over/Under (O/U)

Do yourself a favor and don’t go for a trip to the kitchen when this fight comes on the television — if you blink, this one could be over. Well, Under.

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-150) is the play. Smith has fought into the 2nd round just once in the past 4 fights and Walker has 3 consecutive finishes in the 1st round. Walker has also not fought into Round 2 in 8 of his previous 10 bouts at the UFC level.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC on ABC 4: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 4 odds between Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida, with MMA picks and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout in the main event, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 4 at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 4: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at noon ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Rozenstruik takes the walk looking to build upon his 1st round knockout of Chris Daukaus last time out at UFC 282 in December. That victory halted a 2-bout losing streak, including a setback against Alexander Volkov in the previous outing. “Bigi Boy” has a 3-4 record across his last 7 bouts, with 2 losses via KO/TKO.

Almeida is not only 4-0 in his 4 bouts since making his UFC debut, but he has 2 KO/TKO and 2 submission wins. The Brazilian fighter has posted finishes in 13 consecutive pro fights since a unanimous decision loss to Bruno Assis at Shooto Brazil 80 back on Jan. 28, 2018.

Almeida holds a 4.19-to-2.93 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while landing 69.86% of those punches. He is also tremendous on the mat, managing a 6.73 takedown average, and a 70.59% takedown accuracy percentage with a 2.24 submission average.

UFC on ABC 4: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Rozenstruik +365 (bet $100 to win $365) | Almeida -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +160 | Under -225)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +650 | No -1600)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

UFC on ABC 4: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida picks and predictions

Records: Rozenstruik (13-4-0) | Almeida (18-2-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Almeida (-500) will cost you 5 times your potential return, and that’s just too much risk for not enough reward.

The Brazilian fighter gets stoppages and plenty of victories but it’s better to play the method of victory rather than just taking the fighter on the 2-way line.

I think Rozenstruik can hang around at least into Round 2. As such, I absolutely love ALMEIDA BY KO/TKO/DQ IN ROUND 2 (+1200) for a chance to multiply your initial wager by 12 times.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-1600): Will the fight go the distance? is absolutely ridiculous, and should be avoided. Instead, in this 5-round bout, I’d roll the dice on OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+160) for a chance to get a solid return. However, know that this fight must last until there is 1:29 remaining in Round 2, as some bettors tend to mix this wager up a little bit.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC 288: Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 288 odds and lines between Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns meet Saturday at UFC 288 at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 288: Muhammad vs. Burns odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET. The main card can be viewed on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Muhammad takes the walk with an 8-0-1 record across his past 9 fights dating back to April 2019. That lone blemish was an unfortunate No Contest against Leon Edwards in March 2021 due to an unintentional eye poke.

“Remember the Name” has gone the distance 3 times in his last 4 fights and in 11 of his previous 14 bouts, too.

Burns has picked up a pair of wins over Neil Magny (UFC 283, January) and Jorge  Masvidal (UFC 287, April) after his unanimous-decision setback against Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 273 in April 2022. He is just 3-2 in the past 5 fights, but losses to Chimaev and Kamaru Usman are nothing to be ashamed about. Like Muhammed, Burns goes the distance frequently and has had just 3 stoppages in the past 9 bouts.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 288: Muhammad vs. Burns odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:24 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Muhammad +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Burns -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +150)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -135 | No +100)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

UFC 288: Muhammad vs. Burns picks and predictions

Records: Muhammad (22-3-0) | Burns (22-5-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

I’ll roll with the 34-year-old MUHAMMAD (+110) for the win. The slight underdog has won 8 of his past 9 fights with a lone No Contest during the span. He seems to understand how to do enough to wow the judges.

Burns is certainly no slouch and this should be an absolute war with Fight of the Night potential. However, Muhammad holds a 4.47-to-3.38 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Burns is more accurate at 56.59% to 50.63% for Muhammad. The ground game is fairly equal, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

Playing YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (-135) is a solid play, and I am actually stunned that this isn’t way more expensive given the penchant for both fighters to go to the judge’s cards.

I also like the slight underdog to win, so playing MUHAMMAD ON POINTS (+200) is worth scooping up for a chance to double your initial wager.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]