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In a 5-round lightweight bout on the main card, Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler battle at UFC 309 on Saturday at Madison Square Garden. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 309: Oliveira vs. Chandler odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on hulu/ESPN+, while the prelims get started at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/FX/hulu/ESPN+. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).
Records: Oliveira (34-10-0) | Chandler (23-8-0)
Oliveira is looking to rebound after a split-decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300 in mid-April. He lost his lightweight strap to Islam Makhachev at UFC 280, and while he followed that up with a first-round KO/TKO of veteran Beneil Dariush at UFC 289, after the loss to Tsarukyan, he is currently considered the No. 2 contender.
Chandler is also looking to bounce back from a loss, as he was submitted by Dustin Poirier at UFC 281 in his most recent showing Nov. 12, 2022. He is also looking for redemption, after eating fists at UFC 262 against Oliveira in their first matchup for the title on May 15, 2021. Oliveira won that fight via KO/TKO just 19 seconds into Round 2.
The 35-year-old Brazilian Muay Thai specialist Oliveira has a 2.5-inch reach advantage over the 38-year-old American fighter. Chandler holds a 4.89-to-3.39 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Oliveira is a little more accurate at 61.97% to just 51.79% for Chandler.
On the ground, Oliveira is deadly, posting a 2.81 submission average, to just 0.87 for Chandler. Both have a 2.17 takedown average, with Oliveira slightly more accurate on takedowns at 40.0%.
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UFC 309: Oliveira vs. Chandler odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list UFC odds. Lines last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Oliveira -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Chandler +205 (bet $100 to win $205)
- Total rounds: 1.5 Rounds (Over -112 | Under -112)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +590 | No -1100)
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UFC 309: Oliveira vs. Chandler picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Oliviera (-250) has done it before against Chandler, knocking him out in short order in the first meeting. However, both fighters are coming off a loss, and risking 2½ times the potential return is not a smart investment. Let’s get a little more specific.
OLIVEIRA BY SUBMISSION (+150) is a much more attractive play, with much less risk, too. When the Brazilian can get fighters to the ground, it usually doesn’t end well for the opposition. He uses punishing Muay Thai kicks to the calves, weakening the legs of his opponent early on, before getting them to the canvas for the finish. He has been one of the best in UFC history, and while Chandler is a tremendous wrestler, it’s hard to come back from those devastating kicks to the calves.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-112) is the best play on the board. While Oliveira will be trying to get this down to the mat early and often, Chandler is smart enough to hang around. This won’t be easy by any stretch, and it will be a lot more entertaining than that farce we saw on Netflix Friday night.
However, you can’t play the distance props as there is literally zero chance this fight goes all the way, yet you can’t play No (-1100): Will the fight go the distance, risking 11 times the potential return. That makes no sense, either.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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