Tag: UFC 307 betting odds lines picks and predictions best bets

UFC 307: Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 307 odds between Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Roman Dolidze and Kevin Holland meet Saturday at UFC 307 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 307: Dolidze vs. Holland odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Dolidze (13-3-0) | Holland (26-11-0)

The Georgian fighter Dolidze stopped a 2-bout losing skid with a unanimous-decision win over Anthony Smith last time out at UFC 303 in late June. His previous setbacks were by majority decision to Nassourdine Imavov, and unanimous decision against Marvin Vettori. That means 3 straight fights have gone the distance, and 6 of his past 9 fights.

For Holland, he stopped Michal Oleksiejczuk via submission in 94 seconds at UFC 302 in early June. He also snapped a 2-bout losing streak which included a unanimous-decision loss to Michael Page and a split-decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena.

The 36-year-old Dolidze is 5 years older, and Holland holds a 5-inch reach advantage. Holland also has a 4.25-to-3.13 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while landing 61.22% of those strikes, while Dolidze lands 50.31% of those strikes.

In the ground game, Dolidze is a little better, posting a 1.26-to-0.84 takedown average advantage, while he is slightly more accurate on those takedowns at 40.0%. He also has a 1.14-to-0.60 submission average advantage.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 307: Dolidze vs. Holland odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Dolidze +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Holland -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -225 | Under +170)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -185 | No +140)

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UFC 307: Dolidze vs. Holland picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

HOLLAND (-150) is a strong bet straight up as a moderate favorite against Dolidze (+125).

The young fighter will use his tremendous reach advantage to push and pull Dolidze away at his discretion, picking and choosing his spots to get close when he needs to.

With the recent history of these 2 fighters, it’s very unlikely we end up getting a finish. Holland has needed the judges to determine a winner in 3 straight fights, while Dolidze has gone the distance in 2 of the past 3 bouts.

As such, playing HOLLAND BY DECISION (+175) at plus-money for the method of victory is also a very good wager.

Over/Under (O/U)

As far as the round betting is concerned, Yes (-185): Will the fight go the distance? is a little too costly. It will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s too much.

In addition, Over 2.5 Rounds (-225) will set you back more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s too pricey as well.

Stick to the 2-way line, and the method of victory.

PASS.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 307: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 307 odds between Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s bantamweight championship bout in the co-main event, Raquel Pennington and Julianna Pena meet Saturday at UFC 307 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 307: Pennington vs. Pena odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Pennington (16-9-0) | Pena (12-5-0)

Pennington lost her 1st championship attempt against Amanda Nunes back in May 2018 at UFC 224. She fought hard to position herself for another chance at a strap, and she topped Mayra Bueno Silva via unanimous decision at UFC 297 in late January to finally become a champion. Now, she faces her 1st title defense.

Pennington has won 6 consecutive bouts, with 5 of those victories coming by way of decision. The lone finish was a 2nd-round submission against Macy Chiasson in Dec. 2021.

Pena steps into the octagon for the 1st time since suffering a unanimous-decision setback to Nunes back at UFC 277 in a title bout. She was trying to defend her belt after submitting Nunes at UFC 269 for her 1st title. Pena was supposed to fight a 3rd and deciding fight with Nunes at UFC 289, but Pena had to pull out due to broken ribs suffered in training camp.

Pena holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage over the champ, while Pennington has a 4.14-to-3.16 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Pena is slightly more accurate at 65.0%, to 60.24% for the champ. Pena’s ground game has been much better, too, and he dominates in takedown average (1.94) and takedown accuracy percentage (55.17%).

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 307: Pennington vs. Pena odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Pennington -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Pena +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -250 | No +175)

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UFC 307: Pennington vs. Pena picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

PENNINGTON (-165) is a solid bet to get the job done on the 2-way line.

While Pena (+135) has a slight reach advantage, and she is a little more accurate on her significant strikes, she hasn’t fought in over 26 months. It remains to be seen how her cardio will be after not having been involved in a meaningful fight since July 30, 2022.

In addition, Pennington is likely to take this the distance. She has ended up going the distance in 3 consecutive bouts, 8 of the past 9 fights, and 11 of the previous 13 outings since UFC 202. She wins regularly, but she just doesn’t get finishes.

As a result, also look to PENNINGTON BY DECISION (+100) at even-money for the method of victory.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-250): Will the fight go the distance? will set you back 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

Again, 11 of the past 13 fights have gone the distance for Pennington, while Pena has ended up needing the assistance of the judges to determine a winner in 4 of her previous 8 outings.

PASS.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 307: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 307 odds between Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr., with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round light heavyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Alex Pereira and Khalil Rountree Jr. meet Saturday at UFC 307 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Pereira (11-2-0) | Rountree Jr. (14-5-0)

The light heavyweight champion Pereira secured the strap at UFC 303 with his 2nd straight title defense last time out at UFC 303 against Jiri Prochazka. He originally plucked the belt from Prochazka at UFC 295, defended it at UFC 300 against Jamahal Hill, and then won the rematch with the Czechia-born fighter last time out.

Each of his past 3 victories have been via KO/TKO, with both wins over Prochazka coming in Round 2. He has had just one fight go the distance, a split-decision win over Jan Blachowicz at UFC 291, in the past 7 outings.

Rountree has won 5 straight fights to position himself for this title shot. He has picked up 4 victories via KO/TKO, with a split-decision win over Dustin Jacoby as the only exception during the span.

The champ takes the walk holding a 2 1/2-inch advantage over Rountree, while holding a 5.23-to-3.84 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over the southpaw. Pereira is super accurate with a 69.96% significant strikes accuracy percentage, and he has a slight 0.35-to-0.13 submission average lead.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Pereira -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Rountree Jr. +340 (bet $100 to win $340)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +550 | No -1200)

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UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Pereira (-450) is a stud, and a punching machine, who is fully expected to get the job done and keep his strap. However, betting his straight up will cost you 4 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, including Pereira sucks all of your value out of your ticket.

Instead, let’s get more specific. It’s hard to ignore the fact Pereira has 6 KO/TKOs in the past 7 bouts since UFC 276 when he dropped Sean Strickland in Round 1. However, even taking Pereira via KO/TKO or DQ on the 7-way line forces you to risk 4 times your potential return, and that’s too much.

Let’s go to round betting, taking PEREIRA IN ROUND 2 (+400) and PEREIRA IN ROUND 3 (+550) in a 2-round block. Yes, if he gets the win in Rounds 2 or 3, you’d lose one end, but you’d still be well ahead, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-1200): Will the fight go the distance? is way too costly. It should go without saying that betting such a big number is not a good long-term betting strategy.

As far as total rounds, OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-125) is worth a roll of the dice. We just need Pereira to win in the 2nd half of Round 2 or in Round 3 to make the round block betting above make sense, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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