Tag: UFC 306 betting odds lines picks and predictions best bets

UFC 306: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 306 odds between Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes meet Saturday at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Ortega (16-3-0) | Lopes (25-6-0)

These 2 fighters were supposed to square off at UFC 303, but while preparing to move up to lightweight, Ortega couldn’t make the cut and the fight was scrapped after it had already started. Instead, Lopes met Dan Ige and won in an epic bout.

Ortega opened his UFC career with a no contest against Mike de la Torre July 26, 2014. It’s been a roller-coaster ride of a decade, as he ripped off 6 straight wins since that no contest, including a 1st-round KO/TKO of Frankie Edgar at UFC 222.

He lost a title bout to Max Holloway at UFC 231 in a TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage, while also falling to Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 266 in the main event. He was knocked out in the 1st round against Yair Rodriguez in the main event July 2022, but bounced back with a 3rd-round submission win against Rodriguez last time out.

Lopes has picked up 4 consecutive victories since a unanimous-decision loss to Movsar Evloev at UFC 288 in his company debut. He has 3 finishes, including a submission and 2 KO/TKOs, with a unanimous-decision win over Ige at UFC 303.

Lopes enters with a 3.5-inch reach advantage, while Ortega holds a slight 4.07-to-3.24 significant strikes landed per minute lead. Lopes is far more accurate, though, landing 62.54% of those strikes, to just 40.39% for the veteran Ortega. Lopez has a 3.68 submission average, too, so it would behoove Ortega not to go to the mat with this guy.

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UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:35 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ortega +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Lopes -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -135)

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UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Lopes (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s just a little too expensive against a wily veteran like Ortega.

If you want action on this fight, roll with LOPES BY TKO/KO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+150) on the 5-way line for a chance to multiply up. If you want to cut out the submission, betting LOPES BY TKO/KO OR DQ (+250) on the 7-way line can help you make 2½ times your initial wager.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play, as we’re looking for a victory by Lopes via knockout. In fact, playing UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-105) is a little cheaper, and it isn’t a bad wager, either.

Ortega has been the distance just twice in his 12 fights at the UFC level, and one of those came in a title bout. For Lopes, he has been the distance just twice in the past 7 fights, so going Under is a good play.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 306: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 306 odds between Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s flyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko meet Saturday at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 306: Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Grasso (16-3-1) | Shevchenko (23-4-1)

It’s a trilogy fight. Grasso picked up the women’s flyweight belt at UFC 285 with a 4th-round submission victory in March 2023. The rematch ended up in a draw at Noche UFC last September, so a year later, the 2 fighters are running it back for a 3rd fight.

For Grasso, she is 5-0-1 in the past 6 fights, with 4 of those bouts going the distance, including last time out against Shevchenko in 5 rounds.

As far as Shevchenko is concerned, the Kyrgyzstani southpaw fighter is looking to get her strap back. She topped Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 231 and retained the belt for 7 title defenses before Grasso plucked it from her at UFC 285.

Shevchenko went the distance in that draw, but that was a rarity. Only 3 of her past 7 fights have ended up needing the judges to decide a victor.

Both fighters stand 5-foot-5, and Shevchenko has an ever-so-slight half-inch reach advantage. Grasso has a 4.67-to-3.28 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Shevchenko is much more accurate on those strikes at 68.65%, while Grasso lands at 55.69%.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 306: Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Grasso -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Shevchenko +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +150)

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UFC 306: Grasso vs. Shevchenko picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

I’m not one for conspiracy theories. I believe that these fights happen organically and there is nothing fishy about the UFC. However, the reason to pick SHEVCHENKO (+115) to win outright is because both of the previous fights have been so close.

I can see the former champ getting the job done and there actually being a 4th fight in the future to determine, once and for all, who the real champ of the division will be.

In addition, SHEVCHENKO BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+175) for the chance to nearly double up is also a good investment.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-200): Will the fight go the distance? is a little too expensive as a standalone bet. Now, if you were to fold this prop into a multi-leg parlay, it isn’t the end of the world.

However, for a straight bet, AVOID.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 306 odds between Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round bantamweight championship bout in the co-main event, Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili meet Saturday at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: O’Malley (18-1-0) | Dvalishvili (17-4-0)

O’Malley has rolled up 6 victories and a no contest in his past 7 bouts since a stunning 1st-round KO/TKO loss to Marlon Vera at UFC 252. In the past 6 wins, 4 have come via KO/TKO while winning against Petr Yan by way of split-decision at UFC 280 and a unanimous win in a revenge fight against Vera at UFC 299. That was the 1st title defense for “Sugar,” too, after taking the strap from Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292.

Dvalishvili worked his way into title contention with 3 straight unanimous-decision victories, including against Henry Cejudo last time out at UFC 298. He has won 9 of the past 10 fights overall, with 9 of those fights going the distance. The lone exception for a KO/TKO of Marlon Moraes was at UFC 266.

O’Malley stands 5 inches taller than his Georgian counterpart, and he is 3 years younger, too. The switch-stance champ is a punching machine, posting 7.63 significant strikes landed per minute. While we usually see a lot of strikes equal lower accuracy, he has a strong 62.30% significant strikes accuracy percentage.

For Dvalishvili, he has a 68-inch reach, which is 4 inches less than O’Malley’s, so he has his work cut out. He is extremely good at takedowns, and that’s where he can wow the judges if this one goes deep into the night. He has a stunning 6.43 takedown average, although the submission average difference between the 2 fighters is rather negligible.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): O’Malley -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Dvalishvili +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Over 4.5 Rounds: (Over -130 | Under +100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -115 | No -115)

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UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

It’s hard to envision O’MALLEY (-140) not getting the job done here. The frequent guest on “Kill Tony” is just the more exciting fighter, capable of ending this thing at any time.

If Dvalishvili (+115) is to turn the tables and claim the belt, it’s going to end up going the distance as he wows the judges. O’Malley will punch his way to victory and won’t allow Dvalishvili to hang around and bore the crowd.

For method of victory, it’s a good idea to back O’MALLEY BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+125) at plus-money on the 5-way line.

Over/Under (O/U)

Looking to the round betting, NO (+125): FIGHT TO START ROUND 5 is a good bet. I don’t think O’Malley lets it get that far.

If you’d like a little more wiggle room looking for a Round 5 finish, Under 4.5 Rounds (+100) at even-money is an OK play, too. I prefer the top option, however.

In addition, NO (-115): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a good play, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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