Tag: UFC 304 betting odds lines picks and predictions best bets

UFC 304: King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 304 odds between King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, King Green and Paddy Pimblett meet Saturday at UFC 304 at Co-op Live in Manchester, United Kingdom. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 304: Green vs. Pimblett odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).

Records: Green (32-15-1) | Pimblett (21-3-0)

Green bounced back from a 1st-round KO/TKO loss to Jalin Turner in early December with a unanimous-decision win over Jim Miller in mid-April at UFC 300 in Las Vegas. King is 3-1 in his past 4 fights since a no-contest against Jared Gordon in April 2023.

It’s a rarity to see Green fights go the judges’ cards as each of his past 6 bouts resulted in a finish inside the distance. Since a 1st-round KO/TKO win over Al Iaquinta at UFC 268 in November 2021, he has gone the distance just twice in the past 9 events. In fact, in 4 of the past 7 bouts, the fight hasn’t made it past the opening round.

For Pimblett, he is coming off back-to-back unanimous-decision wins over Tony Ferguson (Dec. 16, 2023) and Gordon (Dec. 10, 2022). Prior to that, he submitted Jordan Leavitt (July 2022) and Kazula Vargas (March 2022), while posting a 1st-round KO/TKO win over Luigi Vendramini (September 2021), showing off his versatility.

Since arriving at the UFC level, he has 2 wins by decision, 2 wins by submission and 1 KO/TKO victory. The Baddy can get it done in a number of different ways. In his career, Pimblett is 21-3-0, going 6-0 via KO/TKO and 9-1 by way of submission.

Pimblett has a number of things on his side. The Englishman will have a pro-home crowd spurring him on, and he holds a 2-inch reach advantage. Green has a 6.45-to-5.13 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Pimblett is slightly more accurate with those strikes at 59.67% to 55.21% for Green.

Takedown average difference is negligible, but Paddy has a 1.63 submission average, so it might behoove King to keep this fight upright.

Watch the early prelims and prelims with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 304: Green vs. Pimblett odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Green -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Pimblett -104 (bet $104 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -172 | Under +134)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -140 | No +110)

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UFC 304: Green vs. Pimblett picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

BACK PIMBLETT (-104). He will easily be facing the toughest opponent he has met at the UFC level as the veteran Green (-112) is a beast.

There isn’t a lot to glean, as far as common opponents, as Green had a no contest against Gordon, while Pimblett eased by Gordon via unanimous-decision.

However, what stands out is that this fight is in Manchester, which is the equivalent of Ivan Drago hosting Rocky in Moscow. It will be a pro-Paddy crowd, but the hometown fans aren’t likely to turn on Pimblett in the end.

BETTING PIMBLETT (-104) is the play here.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-140): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? isn’t priced out of line, and it is a good bet in this bout on the main card.

Green ended up going the distance in his last bout — vs. Miller — while Pimblett has needed the assistance of the judges to determine a winner in his past 2 fights. As the quality of opponent increases, so does the length of the bout. That will be especially true in this clash.

If you’re like a little more wiggle room, OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-172) is a little pricey, but even if the fight ends in the 2nd half of Round 3 or beyond, you’re a winner.

Since we tabbed the Briton to win on the 2-way line, rolling the dice on PIMBLETT BY POINTS (+280) for the chance to nearly triple up on the method of victory prop is worth a light play.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 304: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 304 odds between Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round heavyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes meet Saturday at UFC 304 at Co-op Live in Manchester, United Kingdom. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 304: Aspinall vs. Blaydes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).

Records: Aspinall (14-3-0) | Blaydes (18-4-0)

Aspinall plucked the heavyweight strap from Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295 with a resounding KO/TKO win in just 69 seconds on Nov. 11, 2023. This will be his 1st title defense.

Prior to that victory, Aspinall posted a KO/TKO win over Marcin Tybura in the main event of a fight night in July 2023. That’s 2 straight KO/TKO wins since his last loss, but that’s the rub. His most recent setback was a KO/TKO loss in just 15 seconds in a main event against Blaydes in July 2022.

Blaydes bounced back from a Round 1 KO/TKO loss to Pavlovich in the main event April 22, 2023, posting a KO/TKO in Round 2 against Jailton Almeida at UFC 299 this past March. Each of Blaydes’ past 4 fights have resulted in KO/TKO, with 3 victories, including the short one over Aspinall.

Blaydes, nicknamed Razor, has managed 9 KO/TKO results in his past 12 bouts since June 9, 2018, with 6 victories by way of knockout, and 3 losses — to Pavlovich, Derrick Lewis (February 2021) and Francis Ngannou (November 2018), which is certainly nothing to be ashamed about.

In the tale of the tape, Blaydes holds a 2-inch reach advantage, while Aspinall is an absolute punching machine. He has 7.72 significant strikes landed per minute, while landing them at an impressive 68.08% rate. Blaydes has just a 3.53 significant strikes landed minute rate, but when he does land them, they’re extremely effective.

Both are tremendously efficient in takedown average, with Blaydes checking in at 5.72 and Aspinall at 3.46. Both of those numbers are off the charts. Aspinall has a sparkling 100.0% takedown-accuracy percentage, too, while Blaydes is at 53.45%, which is still phenomenal. Aspinall has an outstanding 1.73 submission average, too.

Watch the early prelims and prelims with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 304: Aspinall vs. Blaydes odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:51 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Aspinall -405 (bet $405 to win $100) | Blaydes +320 (bet $100 to win $320)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +134 | Under -172)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +560 | No -1000)

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UFC 304: Aspinall vs. Blaydes picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Aspinall (-405) suffered the 15-second knockout against Blaydes (+320) in the July 2022 bout, but even if that didn’t happen, this big -405 number should give bettors pause. Betting such heavy favorites, even as part of a multi-leg parlay, is not a recommended betting strategy over the long term.

Aspinall will be fighting in his native United Kingdom, and he’ll have an arena at full throat which should energize him. In fact, with fellow countryman Leon Edwards fighting in the other co-main event, it’s gonna be a raucous and wild pro-England crowd, resembling a soccer match.

Since we’re rolling with the current champ, playing ASPINALL BY KO/TKO (-155) is the way to go as far as the method of victory is concerned.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-1000): Will the fight go the distance? is ridiculously priced, and even the alternate round betting prop which has Aspinall winning in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 (-230) is a little pricey.

The best prop bet to roll with is FIGHT TO REACH SECOND ROUND: YES (-115). We’re unlikely to see a Round 1 finish as Aspinall won’t be caught with a devastating blow early in the fight like the previous matchup.

In fact, OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+134) at plus-money is super tempting, and could be a nice value, too, especially as part of a multi-leg parlay.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 304: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 304 odds between Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round welterweight championship bout in the co-main event, Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad meet Saturday at UFC 304 at Co-op Live in Manchester, United Kingdom. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).

Records: Edwards (22-3-0) | Muhammad (23-3-0)

The southpaw Edwards took the welterweight strap from Kamaru Usman with a 5th-round KO/TKO win at UFC 278 in August 2022. Edwards then defended the belt at UFC 286 with a majority-decision win in March 2023. In his next fight, his 2nd title defense, Edwards posted a unanimous-decision win over Colby Covington at UFC 296 in December.

Edwards has 4 straight wins since a no-contest against Muhammad in their 1st bout in a UFC Fight Night 187 main event in March 2021, which ended in an accidental eye poke early in Round 2.

Muhammad likes to fight long into the night, and PPV fans are likely to get their money’s worth. He has ended up going the distance 4 times in the past 5 bouts, including a win via unanimous decision against Gilbert Burns last time out at UFC 288 in May 2023. Muhammad has gone the distance in 12 of his past 15 bouts since Feb. 11, 2017.

Edwards has also ended up going the distance pretty frequently, including 3 of his past 4 fights, and 11 of the past 15 fights since July 18, 2015.

Edwards has a 2-inch reach advantage, and 3-inch height advantage. While Muhammad has a substantial 4.55-to-2.75 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, Edwards is more accurate with those strikes at 59.36%. Muhammad lands roughly half of his significant strikes at 50.31%.

In takedown average, Muhammad has a slight lead at 1.98-to-1.25, while the takedown-accuracy percentage is nearly identical. Edwards has a 0.42 submission average, to just 0.17 for Muhammad.

Watch the early prelims and prelims with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:51 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Edwards -265 (bet $265 to win $100) | Muhammad +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -215 | Under +162)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -190 | No +148)

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UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Edwards (-265) will set you back 2.65 times the potential return. That’s pretty risky in a bout featuring a pair of fighters who usually rely upon the judges to determine a winner.

Still, Edwards hasn’t lost since Dec. 19, 2015, nearly a decade of wins. If you were to toss the champ into a multi-leg parlay, it isn’t a bad bet. You just can’t bet this straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

It’s actually surprising YES (-190): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? isn’t a little more expensive, given the frequency these 2 fighters end up going the distance. Backing it straight up, risking 1.9 times the potential return, isn’t terribly attractive, but it is a sound bet. Tossing this into a Same-Game Parlay (SGP) or multi-leg ticket, isn’t a bad idea, either.

In addition, EDWARDS ON POINTS (+120) at plus-money, in front of his fellow countrymen in Manchester, should be a rather decent investment, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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