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UFC 302: Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 302 odds between Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Kevin Holland and Michal Oleksiejczuk meet Saturday at UFC 302 at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 302: Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Holland (25-11-0) | Oleksiejczuk (19-7-0)

Holland heads into this bout with 2 straight losses via decision, falling by unanimous decision to Michael Page at UFC 299 in his most recent fight. He also dropped a split-decision bout against Jack Della Maddalena at Noche UFC in Sept. 2023. Holland’s last victory came when he submitted Michael Chiesa at UFC 291 in July 2023.

Oleksiejczuk suffered a Round 1 submission loss to Michel Pereira at UFC 299, losing in just 61 seconds. He has dropped 2 of his past 3 fights, getting submitted in each of those setbacks.

The favorite, Holland, takes the walk to the octagon while holding a 7-inch reach advantage. While Oleksiejczuk has a slight 5.06-to-4.24 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, Holland is much more accurate on those strikes at 61.31%, to just 55.71% for the Polish challenger.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 302: Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:47 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Holland -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Oleksiejczuk +240 (bet $100 to win $240)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -150 | Under +110)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)

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UFC 302: Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Holland (-300) is a little too pricey, costing you 3 times your potential return on the 2-way line. Instead, let’s get a little more specific.

If you simply want to take HOLLAND BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-125), getting the finish via any method possible, it isn’t a terrible play. However, he tapped Chiesa at UFC 291, while Oleksiejczuk (+240) has lost via submission in his past 2 setbacks.

If you’re a little more adventurous, HOLLAND BY SUBMISSION (+250) on the 7-way method of victory line is a tempting play for the chance to multiply up by 2½ times.

Over/Under (O/U)

No: Will the fight go the distance? (-250) will cost you 2½ times your potential return, which is way too much risk and not nearly enough value.

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (+110) at plus-money is a strong play, though. Oleksiejczuk has managed to get out of Round 1 just once in the past 5 fights, a 2nd-round submission loss to Caio Borralho in April 2023.

In Oleksiejczuk’s past 12 fights, he has failed to get to Round 2 on 8 separate occasions.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 302: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 302 odds between Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round middleweight bout on the main card, Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa meet Saturday at UFC 302 at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 302: Strickland vs. Costa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Strickland (28-6-0) | Costa (14-3-0)

Strickland was on the short end in a split-decision title bout loss at UFC 297 against Dricus Du Plessis in late January. It was his first title defense after topping Israel Adesanya via unanimous decision at UFC 293 to secure the strap for the first time in his career.

He is still 3-3 in the past 6 fights with a 1-1 mark via KO/TKO, 2 wins via decision, and 2 losses by decision. He hasn’t been involved in a submission since winning his company debut back in March 2014 against Bubba McDaniel at UFC 171.

Costa suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Robert Whittaker at UFC 298, and he has dropped 3 of the past 4 fights.

Since arriving at the UFC level in March 2017, he has 4 wins and a loss via KO/TKO while going 2-2 in 4 decisions. Like his counterpart, Costa hasn’t been involved in a submission since topping Eduardo Ramon at JF: Jungle Fight 87 in May 2016.

Strickland holds a 4-inch reach advantage over Costa. The latter has a slight 6.20-to-5.91 significant strikes landed per minute advantage while he is much more accurate at 59.88%, to just 43.77% on those strikes for Strickland.

However, Strickland does have a 0.85 takedown average and 64.29% takedown accuracy percentage.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 302: Strickland vs. Costa odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:32 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Strickland -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Costa +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -155 | Under +115)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +110 | No -150)

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UFC 302: Strickland vs. Costa picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Strickland (-250) is quite expensive straight up, costing you 2½ times your potential return. That’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

Instead, let’s get a little more specific. Strickland has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights and 7 of his past 9 bouts since May 2021.

Looking to STRICKLAND BY DECISION (+150) at plus-money is a much stronger play.

Over/Under (O/U)

If you don’t want to declare a winner but want action on the fight, playing DECISION (+110) for the “How Fight Will End” prop is the way to go, or simply the YES (+110): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? prop.

If you’re a little more on the conservative side and you’d like some wiggle room, take a look at OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-155). If there is a finish in the 2nd half of Round 4, or into Round 5, you’d still have a winning ticket.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 302 odds between Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round lightweight championship bout in the main event, Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier meet Saturday at UFC 302 at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Makhachev (25-1-0) | Poirier (30-8-0)

The champ Makhachev topped Charles Oliveira at UFC 280 to secure the strap, and the southpaw beat Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 284 via unanimous decision, then ran it back against Volkanovski at UFC 294 with a resounding Round 1 KO/TKO victory.

Makhachev has posted 13 consecutive victories since a 1st-round KO/TKO loss at UFC 192 against Adriano Martins. In those 13 wins, the champ has 5 wins via unanimous decision, with 3 wins by KO/TKO and 5 victories by way of submission.

For Poirier, he is 35 years old, and the sands of time are running out on his chance to be a champ again. The last time he held the strap was April 2019, when he took it from Max Holloway at UFC 236, then lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 242 in Sept. 2019.

Oh, and Nurmagomedov is back in Makhachev’s corner for this title defense. The 2 fighters were reportedly childhood friends, as well as teammates, while Nurmagomedov is also considered a mentor. He hasn’t cornered for Makhachev since Oct. 2022 at UFC 280, a submission win over Oliveira.

Poirier holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage over Makhachev, and he has an overwhelming 5.46-to-2.46 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Makhachev is way more accurate on those strikes, however, landing at a 72.44% rate, to just 55.15% for Poirier.

Makhachev has managed a 3.17-to-1.33 takedown average advantage, too, while posting a 60.78% takedown accuracy percentage.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Makhachev -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Poirier +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -650)

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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

POIRIER (+400) is worth a roll of the dice for the opportunity to potentially multiply your initial wager by more than 4 times.

The Louisiana native faces long odds, but seeing his nemesis Nurmagomedov in the corner of his opponent could fuel Poirier’s fire. It’s now or never for Poirier, as a loss here likely means the 35-year-old won’t have a chance at a title again in his career.

Makhachev hasn’t lost since 2015, so it obviously isn’t going to be easy. But backing Poirier is the way to go.

Over/Under (O/U)

No matter the winner, OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-160) is the play. We’re not going to have a quick Makhachev fight like we’re accustomed to seeing. He has not made it Round 2 in 3 of his previous 5 bouts.

However, Poirier is a veteran who knows how to last. He has made it past the halfway point of Round 2 in 3 of his past 4 fights.

You can’t play No (-650): Will the fight go the distance?, costing you 6½ times your potential return.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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