In a lightweight bout on the main card, Justin Gaethje battles Rafael Fiziev at UFC 286 at the O2 Arena in London. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 286: Gaethje vs. Fiziev odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The fights are on ESPN+ with the early prelims starting at 12:30 p.m. ET, and the prelims beginning at 3 p.m. ET. The main card starts at 5 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Gaethje failed to win the lightweight strap when he was submitted in the first round by Charles Oliveira last time out at UFC 274 in May 2022. It’s the 2nd time in the past 3 bouts that he has been submitted, also losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 254 on Fight Island in Oct. 2020.
Gaethje has gone the distance just once in his 9 fights at the UFC level, with 4 KO/TKO victories, 2 KO/TKO losses and a pair of submission setbacks.
Fiziev dropped Rafael Dos Anjos last time out in the fifth round in July 2022, his 2nd straight KO/TKO win, and 3rd knockout victory in the past 4 bouts.
Since making his UFC debut in April 2019 — a KO/TKO loss to Magomed Mustafaev — “Ataman” has ripped off 6 consecutive victories, including 3 unanimous-decision wins and 3 KO/TKO victories.
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UFC 286: Gaethje vs. Fiziev odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Justin Gaethje +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Rafael Fiziev -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -180 | Under +145)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +155 | No -230)
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UFC 286: Gaethje vs. Fiziev picks and predictions
Records: Gaethje (23-4-0) | Fiziev (12-1-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Fiziev looks to keep Gaethje down, but it certainly won’t be easy. Gaethje has a 7.46-to-4.81 significant strikes landed per minute advantage while posting a 60.52% significant strike accuracy percentage.
GAETHJE (+190) is worth taking a chance on, as you can nearly double up on the veteran fighter. The biggest danger to Gaethje is going to the mat and tapping out, but that’s not really Fiziev’s game. Both fighters will want to remain upright, and that’s good news for the underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
Gaethje is a punching machine, but look for him to be a little measured in his attacks. Fiziev is also a dangerous puncher, so both will want to keep each other at a bit of a distance, rather than walking into a killer blow that can end the fight in the blink of an eye.
I am not saying that this fight will be boring, by any stretch, but I don’t think it will be the punch-fest it is capable of being. As such, I like YES (+155): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE at plus money, and METHOD OF VICTORY: GAETHJE BY POINTS (+720) is worth a partial unit play for a chance to multiply your initial wager by more than 7 times.
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