In a welterweight bout on the main card, Gilbert Burns and Khamzat Chimaev meet Saturday at UFC 273 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. Below, we analyze the UFC 273 Burns vs. Chimaev odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The early prelim fights can be viewed on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET, with the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ and the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Burns suffered a third-round KO/TKO against Kamaru Usman at UFC 258 Feb. 13, 2021, but bounced back with a unanimous-decision win over Stephen Thompson at UFC 264 last time out in July.
Four of Burns’ past six fights have gone the distance, and 10 of his past 12 fights have gone into at least the second round.
Chimaev has a four-inch reach advantage, while also managing 8.68 significant strikes landed per minute to 3.12 for Burns. Chimaev is pinpoint, too, posting a ridiculous 83.01 significant strikes accuracy percentage, while also holding a 4.65-to-2.16 takedown average and silly 5.81 submission average. The dude is a human boa constrictor.
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UFC 273 Burns vs. Chimaev: Odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Burns +340 (bet $100 to win $340) | Chimaev -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +210 | No -320)
[tipico]
UFC 273 Burns vs. Chimaev: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Burns (20-4-0) | Chimaev (10-0-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Chimaev (-450) was a tremendous prospect before arriving at the UFC level, and he hasn’t skipped a beat despite the fact the quality of his opponents continues to go up.
He has four finishes in four fights since joining the company, including a first-round submission win over Li Jingliang at UFC 267 in October, while also recording KO/TKO wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Rhys McKee, and a submission victory over John Phillips.
As such, play CHIMAEV BY KO/TKO (-102) at near even money rather than Chimaev by submission. The latter looks more attractive since Chimaev also has two wins via tap, however, Burns is 8-0 via submission in his pro career, and he has a solid ground game defense. Chimaev likely won’t be as keen to go to the canvas as usual.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-320): Fight to go the distance looks like the play, but you can’t risk more than three times your potential return.
Instead, consider the favorite in a two-round block to win. CHIMAEV IN ROUND 2 (+320) and CHIMAEV IN ROUND 3 (+1100) is worth a look. If Chimaev wins in Rounds 2 or 3, you will lose one end, but be well ahead, especially if he has his arm raised after a Round 3 victory.
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