It’s time for UFC 264. Saturday’s main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas features the mercurial Conor McGregor taking on Dustin Poirier in a lightweight bout. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET with the headliner starting shortly after midnight ET. Below, we analyze the UFC 264 Poirier vs. McGregor 3 odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The fight will be televised on pay-per-view. Watch the entire card on ESPN+ by signing up here.
The southpaw Poirier knocked out McGregor at UFC 257 in January, avenging a first-round KO/TKO loss to “The Notorious” Sept. 27, 2014 at UFC 178.
Poirier enters this bout on a two-fight win streak after his submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in a title bout on Fight Island Sept. 7, 2019 at UFC 242.
McGregor hasn’t fought since the loss to Poirier, and he enters this match just 3-3 across his last six fights, starting with a submission loss to Nate Diaz at UFC 196. The rather marginal results have taken away some of the appeal of a McGregor fight, but he remains one of the top draws in UFC.
PLAY: UFC 264 Poirier vs. McGregor 3 Pick’em contest
UFC 264 Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor: Odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 5:20 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Dustin Poirier -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Conor McGregor +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +115 | Under -140)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +300 | No -375)
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UFC 264 Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Poirier 27-6-0 | McGregor 22-5-0
Conor McGregor to win +110 (2-way line or money line)
If you’re feeling McGregor in the trilogy fight, then he will jump off the page as a plus-money underdog. These two have swapped blood and sweat twice before, with each fighter winning via KO/TKO. Some might argue McGregor’s best days are behind him, but it’s still weird to see him as an underdog.
Conor McGregor by KO/TKO or DQ +140 (method of victory)
Win or lose, McGregor doesn’t usually see the judges get involved in his fights. His past four UFC matches have resulted in stoppages, and he won two via KO/TKO. In fact, seven of his past eight victories dating back to July 19, 2014, have resulted in knockouts, with two submission losses and a KO/TKO at the hands of Poirier last time out.
If you like McGregor to win, you also should like him to get the KO/TKO. If you bet this prop, you can fetch a $140 profit on a $100 bet.
Under 2.5 rounds (-140)
If you like this fight to end in the first half of Round 3 or earlier, playing Under 2.5 rounds is the way to go. As mentioned above, McGregor doesn’t usually go long into the night, and just one of his last four fights went into the third round. Nine of his last 11 bouts ended in Round 1 or 2.
Also see: UFC 264 breakdown – Will McGregor’s adjustments make a difference?
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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