As the main event of Saturday’s highly anticipated UFC 264, Conor McGregor returns to the octagon to take on Dustin Poirier on an absolutely loaded main card. The main card is scheduled to begin at 10 p.m ET, with the event held at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC 264 odds and lines, with our five best bets for Saturday’s fights.
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5 best bets for UFC 264
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.
UFC 264 best bet: Niko Price to win (+150)
Price is an aggressive fighter entering with a 14-4 record. He lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute but this will be a clash of styles as his opponent, Michel Pereira, is more of a grappler.
Price has 12 UFC fights under his best and is 6-4 with two no contests. Pereira is 3-2 in his UFC appearances. I’m going with the more experienced striker in this one, especially coming in as an underdog.
UFC 264 best bet: Sean O’Malley to win in Round 1 (+110)
Kris Moutinho was surprised to get the call up to fight O’Malley, one of the most outlandish UFC fighters.
O’Malley is a heavy favorite to win at -900 and even for him to win via KO/TKO or DQ is pricey at -300. However, betting on absolute dominance from the start for the star is worth the risk.
Six of O’Malley’s last nine fights ended in the first round. Averaging over 6 significant strikes per minute, expect an aggressive start and quick finish.
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UFC 264 best bet: Gilbert Burns to win (+135)
Burns is getting back into the octagon after a loss to Kamara Usman at UFC 258 in February.
Prior to that, the 34-year-old grapple-heavy fighter took down Tyron Woodley, and he had won his last six fights before the loss to Usman. He takes on 38-year-old Stephen Thompson in the penultimate fight of the night.
Burns is an underdog against Thompson, who has lost three of his last six bouts. If Burns can get him on the ground, this one should be his even if it does go the distance.
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UFC 264 best bet: Ilia Topuria to win (-225)
The price is risky, but the 24-year-old Topuria is a rising star. He’s 10-0 in his career and 2-0 at the UFC level, ending his last fight in the first round. Opponent Ryan Hall is 4-0 at the UFC level and 8-1 in his career.
He’s a more disciplined fighter, having won three of his four fights by decision. Topuria is equally as good at striking and is a much better grappler. Expect the 24-year-old to get the best of the 36-year-old Hall.
UFC 264 best bet: Conor McGregor to win (+110)
A showman at his core, McGregor does his best work with the crowd backing him. Poirier and McGregor are both strike-heavy fighters and Poirier took down the former champ in Round 2 at January’s UFC 257 after The Notorious hadn’t fought for over a year.
That bout was at Fight Island with limited fans in attendance. This time should be a completely different fight.
This could be McGregor officially bringing himself back, and with both fighters familiar with each other, I think he’ll draw energy from the crowd and manage to defeat Poirier.
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