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2024 U.S. Open prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2024 U.S. Open with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

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North Carolina will be the center of the golf world this week with Pinehurst No. 2 hosting the 2024 U.S. Open. Scottie Scheffler is seeking his 2nd major championship of the year after winning the Masters in April, while Xander Schauffele is looking for a 2nd consecutive major win following his PGA Championship win in May. The 1st round begins on Thursday morning from Pinehurst.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets from BetMGM Sportsbook among the 2024 U.S. Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite at +333, with Schauffele holding the 2nd-best odds at +1100. Rory McIlroy (+1200) and Collin Morikawa (+1400) are the only other players with odds shorter than +2000. Martin Kaymer won the U.S. Open at Pinehurst in 2014 and he comes into the week at +20000, while last year’s champion, Wyndham Clark, is +6600 to defend his title.

Pinehurst No. 2 is a par 70 and has a listed yardage of 7,543 yards, but it will play shorter than that due to the fast, firm conditions – particularly with the lack of rain in the forecast this week. There’s no traditional rough like there typically is at a U.S. Open, and there will instead be native areas and waste bunkers that will penalize players for missing fairways.

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124th U.S. Open – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 12:58 a.m. ET.

Bryson DeChambeau (+400)

DeChambeau is unquestionably one of the best golfers on the planet right now and his odds would be much shorter this week if he were playing regularly on the PGA Tour. He finished 6th at the Masters after shooting 2-over in the final round and he came in 2nd at the PGA Championship, 1 shot behind Schauffele.

Brooks Koepka (+450)

Koepka finished 45th at the Masters and 26th at the PGA, 2 disappointing results for the 5-time major champion. You can bet he’s motivated to rebound at the U.S. Open, a tournament he’s won twice before, and Pinehurst sets up well with what are expected to be brutal course conditions.

Collin Morikawa (+300)

Pinehurst seems long based on its yardage but the layout could also take driver out of the bag for some longer hitters, thus leveling the playing field a little bit. Morikawa isn’t long off the tee, but he’s accurate and he’s one of the best approach players in the world. He’s finished 4th, 4th and 2nd in his last 3 starts, nearly catching Scheffler at the Memorial Tournament on Sunday.

U.S. Open – Top-10 picks

Xander Schauffele (+110)

Schauffele is one of the most consistent U.S. Open players on tour, finishing 3rd, 5th, 7th, 14th and 10th in his last 5 appearances. And now that he’s gotten the major monkey off his back by winning the PGA in May, he might feel less pressure to perform this week. At plus money, he’s a great bet for another top 10 in a major, of which he’s had 13 in his career since 2017 – including 6 of 7 U.S. Open appearances.

Cameron Smith (+320)

Pinehurst has some links-like attributes to it, requiring creativity around the greens and off the tee with the amount of runout shots will have. Smith, the 2022 Open champion, should excel on a course like this if he can keep the ball in the fairway. He’s a top putter and wizard with a wedge, so he’s set up well this week.

Max Homa (+320)

Homa doesn’t have a great record in the majors, but he started playing better this year with a 3rd place at the Masters and 35th at the PGA. He’s struggled off the tee, ranking 125th in strokes gained, but he’s great around the greens and above average on approach. Those are 2 key stats for players this week.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Rory McIlroy (+125)

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U.S. Open – Top-20 picks

Hideki Matsuyama (+160)

Matsuyama always comes with some injury concerns, but he looked healthy and in good form at Muirfield where he finished 8th. He’s far and away the best player around the greens on tour, ranking 1st this season, so saving par is something he’s very good at. Also, he’s made the cut in 10 of 11 U.S. Open appearances, including each of the last 7.

Tommy Fleetwood (+138)

In his last 4 starts, Fleetwood hasn’t finished worse than 26th and he could be in for a particularly good showing at Pinehurst where driving accuracy and short game will be critical to a player’s success. Fleetwood thrives in both areas and his recent form is good enough to warrant a top-20 bet at Pinehurst.

Dean Burmester (+300)

Burmester has played exceptionally well on LIV this season, ranking 3rd in points earned for the year. He has a win and 6 total top-20 finishes in his last 6 starts on LIV, becoming a legitimate player on the alternate tour. He could be a sleeper this week in North Carolina.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Robert MacIntyre (+275)
Keegan Bradley (+250)

U.S. Open – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Hideki Matsuyama (-135) vs. Patrick Cantlay (+105)

Cantlay shockingly missed the cut at Muirfield, a limited-field event, and one he’s won twice before. That’s a bad sign for his current form and now that he’s heading into an event with similarly difficult conditions, he could struggle.

Cameron Smith (+120) vs. Matt Fitzpatrick (-150)

Yes, Fitzpatrick is a former U.S. Open champion, but he shouldn’t be -150 over a player of Smith’s caliber – especially given Smith’s high ceiling and low floor. I’m more confident in Smith winning this week than Fitzpatrick, so give me the Aussie.

U.S. Open – Top South African

Dean Burmester (+150)

Burmester and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are co-favorites to be the top South African in the field at +150, but Burmester has higher upside at this course and given his recent play.

U.S. Open – Top Swedish

Alex Noren (+220)

It’s not that I don’t think Ludvig Aberg will play well this week, it’s just that the knee injury is somewhat concerning and Noren at +220 is a very good number in what’s essentially a head-to-head against Aberg; Tim Widig is the only other Swede in the field.

U.S. Open – First-round leader

Xander Schauffele (+2200, +225 for top 10)

We hit Schauffele to be the 1st-round leader at the PGA Championship and we’re going back to it at the U.S. Open. He’s tied with Morikawa in 1st-round scoring average (68.08) this season and is always a fantastic U.S. Open player. It just makes too much sense.

Collin Morikawa (+2500, +250 for top 10)

Morikawa is another player to take for a 1st-round lead, or at least a top-10 after Thursday’s round. As mentioned, he’s tied for 2nd in 1st-round scoring average and has played well in both majors so far this year.

U.S. Open – To make the cut

Suggested play in bold.

Phil Mickelson: YES (+200) vs. No (-275)

Mickelson is looking to complete the career grand slam and while that’s highly unlikely to happen, making the cut is a real possibility. With odds this long, it’s not a bad play, if only for the storyline of Lefty trying to complete the career slam.

More expert prop bet predictions

Any LIV player to win: Yes (+400)

DeChambeau, Koepka, Jon Rahm and Smith are all among the 11 favorites to win outright this week, and I’m particularly confident in DeChambeau, Koepka or Smith getting the job done. It’s worth betting each individually but at +400 for any LIV player to win, it’s an even safer way to play those guys.

Winning margin: 1 shot (+240)

Kaymer ran away from the field and dominated here in 2014 but that’s not going to happen again. There will be enough carnage on this course to bring everyone to around even par, resulting in a close finish on Sunday.

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2023 U.S. Open prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 U.S. Open with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

Los Angeles Country Club is hosting a major championship for the 1st time this week, bringing the best players in the world together for the 2023 U.S. Open. Matt Fitzpatrick’s title defense begins on Thursday morning with Round 1 from Beverly Hills.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 U.S. Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler continue to battle for the title of World No. 1, with Scheffler entering the week atop the Official World Golf Ranking. Rahm, however, is the top golfer in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, followed by Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Rory McIlroy. Fitzpatrick, who won the U.S. Open last year, is ranked 25th.

Players will be taking on the North Course at Los Angeles Country Club this week, a par 70 playing 7,423 yards. Two of the par 3s will be at least 280 yards, making them 2 of the longest in tournament history. The course opened in 1928 and was restored in 2010 by Gil Hanse, Jim Wagner and Geoff Shackelford. The fairways will be wider than most U.S. Open courses, but several greens are narrow and will be protected by unmanicured bunkers.

2023 U.S. Open Championship

Follow the 2023 U.S. Open Championship leaderboard, scores, news, groupings, course details and more from Golfweek and USA TODAY. Catch the tournament June 15-18.

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U.S. Open – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:35 p.m. ET.

Brooks Koepka (+250)

After winning the PGA Championship, Koepka now has 14 top-5 finishes in 36 major championships, including 2 this year. At +250, he’s still a very good value to come in the top 5, especially considering both Scheffler (+150) and Rahm (+225) have shorter odds.

Viktor Hovland (+350)

Hovland tied for 7th at the Masters and 2nd at the PGA Championship, which are 2 of his 7 top-10 finishes already this season. It’s by far the best year of his career and I fully expect him to continue with another high finish at LACC this week, a course that demands top-level ball striking.

Cameron Smith (+500)

Smith continued his impressive major track record this year with a T-34 at the Masters and T-9 at the PGA Championship. LACC sets up well for him with his recovery skills around the greens and putting ability on these tricky, undulating surfaces. He already has 5 top-5 finishes in majors in his career.

Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Tony Finau (+650)
Xander Schauffele (+350)

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U.S. Open – Top-10 picks

Xander Schauffele (+175)

When it comes to the majors, and specifically the U.S. Open, bet Schauffele for a top-10 finish. He has 10 of them in his major championship career, with 5 of those coming in his 6 U.S. Open starts. His only finish outside the top 10 in the U.S. Open was in 2022 when he tied for 14th.

Max Homa (+240)

Homa has not played well in the majors. That’s well-documented. But this is a U.S. Open in his home state and at a venue where his 61 is the course record, set in college for Cal at the Pac-12 Championship. He has 8 top-10s in 16 starts this season; he just needs to break through and do it in a major.

Tyrrell Hatton (+275)

The fiery and often frustrated Hatton doesn’t seem like a good match for a difficult U.S. Open, but he’s one of the hottest players on the planet right now – and I’m not talking about his temper. He hasn’t finished worse than T-19 in his last 6 starts, a stretch that includes 3 top-5s. His U.S. Open record isn’t great but he’s never played this well in his career.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Justin Thomas (+350)
Dustin Johnson (+350)

U.S. Open – Top-20 picks

Rickie Fowler (+140)

Fowler has been a top-20 machine this season, notching 11 such finishes in 17 starts. He has 4 top-20 finishes in his U.S. Open career, so he’s played well in this challenging championship before, but this week is an excellent shot for him to claim his 1st major title in his home state.

Tommy Fleetwood (+150)

Fleetwood has been trending up for a little while now, peaking with a runner-up finish on Sunday at the RBC Canadian Open, losing to Nick Taylor in a playoff. He tied for 18th at the PGA last month, a similarly difficult test to the U.S. Open. He finished 4th and 2nd in the U.S. Open in 2017 and 2018, too.

Eric Cole (+450)

One of my long shots this week is Cole, whose only real weakness is driving the ball. In most U.S. Opens, fairways are narrow and penalizing when you miss them. But LACC features wider fairways than usual, which helps Cole, who has 5 top-25s in his last 7 starts. He tied for 15th at the PGA and 27th at the Players, 2 of the biggest tournaments he played this year.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Min Woo Lee (+350)
Justin Rose (+140)

U.S. Open – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Dustin Johnson (-120) vs. Bryson DeChambeau (-105)

This isn’t a bomb-and-gouge golf course or one that necessarily sets up for big hitters. Obviously, both DJ and Bryson are long off the tee, but Johnson typically has better control over his driver. As well as DeChambeau played in the PGA Championship, I favor Johnson’s game this week.

Min Woo Lee (-105) vs. Joaquin Niemann (-120)

Lee missed the cut at the Masters, but he was in contention at the Players (T-6) and finished T-18 at the PGA Championship. Niemann missed the cut at the PGA Championship and may not be in the type of form that Lee is.

Rickie Fowler (-135) vs. Cameron Young (+110)

Young’s sophomore slump has been shocking and disappointing after a fantastic rookie season. He hasn’t finished better than T-51 since the Masters and only has 6 top-25s in 15 starts. Fowler, on the other hand, has been as steady and consistent as anyone.

U.S. Open – Top Scandinavian

Viktor Hovland (-225)

Yes, the odds are very short for this bet. However, Alex Noren (+500) and Vincent Norman (+550) are the only other Scandinavian players with odds shorter than +1200 to win this bet. As long as Hovland makes the cut, this bet should cash because neither Noren nor Norman are legitimate threats to win at LACC.

U.S. Open – Top debutant

Cam Davis (+600)

It’s somewhat surprising that Davis has never played a U.S. Open before, but after seeing the way he played at Oak Hill in last month’s PGA Championship, I have no doubt he can succeed on this course in these conditions. Taylor Moore (+750) and Adam Svensson (+1000) are among the others vying to be the top debutant.

U.S. Open – First-round leader

Viktor Hovland (+2800)

Hovland had a share of the lead at the Masters after Round 1 after shooting 65. At the PGA Championship, he was 2 off the lead with a 1st-round 68. Why not go back to him in the U.S. Open after he just won his last start at the Memorial Tournament?

Max Homa (+4000)

Can the hometown kid come out and fire a low number at LACC where he has more experience than just about anyone in the field? Homa ranks 6th in 1st-round scoring average this season, too, so he’s played well on Thursdays all year.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group D winner: Tommy Fleetwood (+333)

This is a strong group with DeChambeau, Rose, Thomas and Johnson, all of whom are legitimate contenders to win this week, along with Fleetwood. Fleetwood comes in with arguably the best form after his runner-up finish last week and he deservingly has the 2nd-best odds in this group.

Fitzpatrick, Morikawa and Fleetwood to make the cut (+138)

Fitzpatrick got back on track after missing the cut at the PGA Championship, Morikawa is a pure ball striker who should excel on this course and I’ve already detailed my backing of Fleetwood this week. All three are good bets to make the cut.

Will there be a hole in one? No (+125)

Call me the no-fun guy, but I like the odds for there to be no aces this week. Even with 5 par-3s, these are no bargain. Two of them are 280-plus, another is 228 and the fourth is 171 yards. The most gettable one is a short 124-yard shot on the 15th, which could play as short as under 100 yards.