The Minnesota Twins (26-17) make a one day stop in St. Louis for a doubleheader against the St. Louis Cardinals (17-16) Tuesday. Game one is set to begin at 3:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. We analyze the Twins-Cardinals betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Twins at Cardinals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Jose Berrios vs. RHP Carlos Martinez
Berrios comes into the game with a 4.29 ERA over his first eight starts. The mark is accompanied by a career-best 10.1 K/9, but also a higher than usual 4.3 BB/9.
- Berrios has been dominant at home, but in three road starts this season, he has compiled a 7.20 ERA in 15 innings, with 11 strikeouts and eight walks.
- His velocity is up this season, and his swinging strike rate is up above 13% for the first time in his career. He has significantly cut back on his four-seam fastball usage in his last four starts, and the results have been excellent (21 2/3 IP, 3.32 ERA, 30 K).
Martinez has been out of action since late July after testing positive for COVID-19. He made one appearance prior to his absence, also against the Twins, and allowed six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings.
- Martinez had a live batting practice Wednesday in which, according to Manager Mike Shildt, his pitch count was “in the 50’s”. Don’t look for him to work especially deep into the game, regardless of how he’s performing.
- Martinez has pretty similar home/road splits for his career, but in 2019 posted a 1.82 ERA in 24 2/3 innings at home, all coming out of the bullpen.
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Twins at Cardinals: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Twins
- DH Nelson Cruz (hip) questionable
- OF Max Kepler (groin) out
- C Mitch Garver (ribs) out
- C Alex Avila (back) out
Cardinals
- OF Dexter Fowler (personal) out
- C Yadier Molina (elbow) probable
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Twins at Cardinals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Twins 5, Cardinals 3
Moneyline (ML)
Berrios has been pitching well lately, while there are a lot of questions surrounding Martinez heading into this game. It’s not clear how long he’ll be allowed to go, or if he’ll be ready to pitch at anywhere close to his usual level. Back the TWINS (-129).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Given all of the uncertainty surrounding Martinez, getting these odds on the TWINS -1.5 (+135) to win by more than one run looks like a good value. If he isn’t quite up to speed, Minnesota could win going away, even with their offense at less than full strength.
Over/Under (O/U)
With this game being part of a doubleheader, it will last just seven innings. That being said, Martinez is unlikely to shut down the Twins in his first start back, and while Berrios has been good, he’s no ace. He has also been shaky on the road this year, albeit in a small sample, and probably won’t completely shut down the Cardinals.
The OVER 6.5 (-110) is the side to take here.
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