Francisco Trinaldo and John Makdessi lock horns in a lightweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN+ 28 — also called UFC Fight Night 170 — at the Ginasio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia. The card gets underway in Brazil’s capital Saturday at 6 p.m. ET.
Trinaldo (24-7-0), the Brazilian southpaw, stands one inch taller than his counterpart while holding a two-inch reach advantage. He is also fighting in his native Brazil, although the advantage is somewhat negated by the fact a raucous crowd will all be at home due to the COVID-19 situation. The Constrictor Team fighter, nicknamed “Massaranduba,” is a striker-style fighter and 41 years old. Over his past seven bouts he has alternated wins and losses. Last time out he won a unanimous decision against Bobby Green on the Blachowicz-Jacare card Nov. 16, 2019. Across his past seven wins, three have been won by KO/TKO, including a quick first-round belting of Chad Laprise, also a Canadian like Makdessi. There is no doubt he’ll be looking to keep Makdessi upright, although he can do the ground and pound when necessary.
Makdessi (17-6-0) is the younger fighter at 34, and he enters on a three-bout win streak since being knocked out by Lando Vannata at UFC 206 back on Dec. 10, 2016. He has had nearly a year off since his last fight against Jesus Pinedo, and he generally has had nine to 12 months between each of his past four bouts. It has been a winning recipe, obviously, but he enters as a moderate underdog. Makdessi has a big advantage in Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute (LPM) at 5.43 to 3.09. He is also more accurate with the striking, holding a 50.9-44.0 percent advantage in that category. Makdessi is not a guy who goes to the mat, as is evidenced by his zeroes across the board in Takedown Average, Takedown Accuracy and Submission Average. All three of those categories point to Trinaldo.
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 3 a.m. ET.
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Francisco Trinaldo vs. John Makdessi betting odds
Per BetMGM, Trinaldo (-182) is a rather moderate favorite over Makdessi (+150) despite being seven years older and north of 40. While taking the favorite can be a rather risky proposition, Trinaldo is the play on the 2-way line, and it will be especially satisfying for bettors if he can control the fight early. The worry is going deeper into fights if Makdessi might have the advantage because he is younger.
TRINALDO TO WIN BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+370) is an attractive play which could pay rather handsomely, and Trinaldo by Submission (+600) is even more tempting, albeit a lot more unlikely, too. If you like Trinaldo to win this one by Decision/Technical Decision (+190), or on Points (+190), have at it, but that’s not for me. The oddsmakers are feeling that this one goes the distance (-189), but if you’re betting the knockout, you might as well go NO (+135) on the fighting going the full three rounds.
A two-fighter parlay of Trinaldo and GILBERT BURNS (-189) might be a nice parlay if you want to pair the two moderate fighters together.
New to sports betting? A $10 parlay of Burns (-189) and Trinaldo (-182) returns a potential profit of $13.72.
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