The Toronto Raptors (36-30) travel to the Mile High City Saturday to play the Denver Nuggets (40-27) Saturday. Tip-off at Ball Arena is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Raptors vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Toronto has won back-to-back games, which includes a 117-112 upset of the Suns in Phoenix as a 4.5-point road underdog Friday. The Raptors are 4-5 straight up (SU) and 3-6 against the spread (ATS) since the All-Star break.
Denver had its 3-game winning streak (1-2 ATS) snapped Thursday by the Golden State Warriors in a 113-102 loss as a 1-point home favorite. The Nuggets are 7-2 SU and 4-5 ATS following the All-Star Game.
The Nuggets eked past the Raptors 110-109 in their first meeting Feb. 12, but easily covered as 5.5-point road underdogs and the Under cashed on a 222.5-point total.
Raptors at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:16 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Raptors +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Nuggets -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Raptors +6.5 (-112) | Nuggets -6.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Raptors at Nuggets key injuries
Raptors (not officially submitted)
- SF OG Anunoby (finger) out
- PG Fred VanVleet (knee) questionable
Nuggets
- SG Will Barton (ankle) questionable
- SF Aaron Gordon (foot) questionable
- PG Bones Hyland (knee) probable
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
[tipico]
Raptors at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 110, Raptors 107
Money line
PASS because I only lean towards Toronto’s spread and don’t like it enough to sprinkle on Raptors (+220) despite the chunky money line (ML) payout.
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Against the spread
LEAN to the RAPTORS +6.5 (-112) only because this feels like a trap line considering Toronto kept it closer in the first meeting with the Nuggets and there are a few ATS trends backing the Raptors.
Toronto is 9-5 ATS on the second of a back-to-back (plus-2.6 ATS margin) and 12-6 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record. Whereas Denver is 1-6-1 ATS when laying 5-7 points and 3-8 ATS at home versus winning teams.
The Raptors also have a strength-on-weakness edge in ball security. Toronto is fourth in offensive turnover rate (TOV%), first in defensive TOV% and third in points off turnovers per game. Denver is 25th in offensive TOV% and 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 222.5 (-107) for 1 unit because both teams play at a below-average pace and have a below-average offensive FT/FGA rate.
On top of that, Toronto relies on turning offensive rebounds into second-chance points but Denver is second in defensive rebounding rate.
All three of the referees assigned to this game have officiated more to the Under and they have a combined 56-74 O/U record.
There’s also a notable reverse line movement heading south of the total. Roughly 90% of the cash is on the Over but the total has been lowered from a 225-point opener to the current number according to Pregame.com. It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
The UNDER 222.5 (-107) is my favorite wager in this game.
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