The Toronto Blue Jays (84-66) meet the Tampa Bay Rays (93-58) Tuesday to continue their three-game series at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Blue Jays vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Tampa beat Toronto in the series opener 6-4 as Rays IF Yandy Diaz stood out, hitting for 3-for-4 with 1 home run, 1 double and 3 RBIs.
Season series: Rays lead 10-7.
RHP Alek Manoah makes his 18th start for the Blue Jays. Manoah is 6-2 with 3.39 ERA (93 IP, 35 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 8-1, with 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 10 K Sept. 13 vs. Rays.
- Manoah is 2-1 in three starts against Tampa this year with a 0.96 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 7 H, 4 BB and 29 K.
- vs. Rays on the current roster (66 PA): 0.87 FIP with a .102 batting average (BA), .171 wOBA, .234 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 39.4 K% and 87.1 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Drew Rasmussen gets the nod for the Rays. Rasmussen is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA (66 IP, 22 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 across eight starts and 25 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 2-0, with 5 IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sept. 14 vs. Blue Jays.
- Rasmussen is 1-0 against Toronto this year with a 0.00 ERA (7 IP), 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K in one start and one bullpen outing.
- vs. Blue Jays on the current roster (23 PA): 2.07 FIP with a .091 BA, .122 wOBA, .437 xSLG, 21.7 K% and 92.1 mph EV.
Blue Jays at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:03 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Blue Jays -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Rays -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (+145) | Rays +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Prediction
Blue Jays 7, Rays 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the BLUE JAYS (-108) because Manoah is an ace, their lineup has been a little better against right-handed pitching and Toronto’s bullpen has been one of the best units in baseball this month.
Manoah’s pitching peripherals vs. active Tampa hitters are as amazing as his basic numbers. He grades in 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate, 85th in EV and 84th in xSLG while Rasmussen ranks in the 1st percentile in hard-hit rate and 8th percentile in EV.
Toronto’s lineup has been by far the most productive in baseball this month. The Blue Jays’ 149 wRC+ in September is 14 higher than the next closest team, their .393 wOBA is 28 percentage points more than the second-place team and they are way out in front of WAR too.
It’s only a “lean” toward Toronto because Tampa is the best team in the AL and Manoah is less effective on the road compared to at home. Manoah has 0 ER in 15 IP with 20/1 K/BB in two home starts vs. the Rays but gave up 2 ER over 3 2/3 IP in his visit to Tampa.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” on the Blue Jays -1.5 (+145) because this price-point is almost big enough to take a stab at Toronto’s run line. However, Tampa is 10-6 ATS as a home underdog and Toronto is 18-20 as a road favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-112) for a tiny wager because I much prefer the Toronto side than the total in this spot. However, the market is hammering the Over and I’d prefer to fade the one-sided action than follow it.
The situation (high stakes game between division rivals with playoff implications) lends itself more so to a lower-scoring affair. Both of these bullpens have been dialed in this month and each starter has “top of the rotation” caliber stuff.
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