Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers spent Tuesday at the White House with President Joe Biden, further celebrating the second Lombardi Trophy in the franchise’s history. While Brady spent a bit of that time joking with Biden and getting off a few well-timed shots at a certain former President, one can imagine Brady thinking about the well-timed throws he’ll be making to his army of receivers in 2021. And here’s the potentially great news for the Bucs and their fans: Brady could well be even better in 2021 than he was in 2020, when he completed (including the postseason) 482 of 748 attempts for 5,694 yards, 3,327 air yards, 50 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, a passer rating of 101.4, an EPA of 107.43, and a Positive Play Rate of 50.2%.
First, there’s the amazing news that Brady played the entire 2021 season with a partially torn left MCL. Not a trivial feat for any quarterback, much less a guy playing at a very high level at age 43. With an offseason to recover from that, Brady should be ready to go. Then, we get into the schematic issues Brady and the Bucs had early in the season.
Brady was used to an offense with the Patriots in which he benefited from play-action and pre-snap motion. In 2019, his final season in Foxboro, Brady completed 250 of 415 passes with pre-snap motion for 2,818 yards, 1,381 air yards, 16 touchdowns, seven interceptions, a quarterback rating of 86.4. Not mind-blowing numbers, but it would be tough to put together amazing stats with the group of receivers Brady had that season. Brady was actually more efficient without motion (eight touchdowns and two interceptions), but you’d think that with a receiver group including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Scotty Miller, and Cameron Brate, Brady would be able to wipe the floor with defenses given that pre-snap advantage, not to mention the advantages derived from play-action.
In 2019, Brady completed 99 of 164 passes with play-action for 1,304 yards, 564 air yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. Without it, he threw 19 touchdowns and seven picks, and his passer rating dropped from 90.6 to 84.9. So, when Brady took his talents to Tampa and matched up with head coach Bruce Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, people expected reasonably great things based on the simple fact that he was projected to have much more gifted receivers.
Early on, though, Arians’ static offense helped to exacerbate the problems any quarterback might face in a new offense with new receivers, no matter how great the quarterback is. The nadir of this came in Tampa Bay’s 38-3 Week 9 loss to the Saints, in which Brady threw no touchdowns and three interceptions, had the third-worst game of his career from a passer rating perspective (40.4). and airmailed his receivers far too often. At that point, Brady looked like a washed-up veteran trying to get a bad offense out of the muck. Arians and Leftwich weren’t helping with much pre-snap and play-action stuff — from Weeks 1-12, per Football Outsiders, the Bucs used play-action on just 18.5% of their plays, 31st in the league, despite the fact that their yards per play with play-action was 9.3 with play-action, and 6.3 without. They used motion in Weeks 1-12 on 46.4% of their plays, 13th in the league, though their yards per play with it was 6.5, and 4.9 without.
There seemed to be a schism between what Brady was used to, and what his coaching staff wanted him to do. Arians had very definite thoughts about that, especially an increased use of motion.
Bruce Arians on pre-snap motion pic.twitter.com/JYYKox0hRL
— Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 3, 2020
As Thomas Bassinger points out in the Football Outsiders Almanac (a must-read for all football fans), observers around the league were a bit gobsmacked by the whole thing. CBS analyst Tony Romo made it clear during one broadcast that Arians and Leftwich owed it to their quarterback to make things easier and more efficient by using more play-action and pre-snap motion, and ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky called it “coaching malpractice.” In late November, I made the point last November that Arians and Leftwich were clearly not doing enough to help Brady, and that was obvious on the field.
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Late in the regular season, though, everybody got on the same page. From Weeks 14-17. the Bucs upped their play-action rate to 25.5%, 21st in the league, and averaged 11.4 yards per play with it, and 8.9 without. They also used more motion — like, a LOT more motion. From Weeks 14-17, Tampa Bay went with motion on 56.6% of their plays, good for sixth in the league, and averaged 8.0 yards per play with it, and 6.1 without. Two primary reasons the Bucs stood at a stagnant 7-5 before their Week 13 bye, and came back to win their last four regular-season games.
Arians and Leftwich got even trickier in the postseason, as the Bucs used play-action on 28.5% of their plays, averaging 9.7 yards per play with it, and 6.1 without. Motion was more of a factor as well — 60.8% of their postseason plays featured motion, and though they had the same yards per play with and without it (5.7), it certainly seemed that everyone was finally reading the same playbook.
So, there’s your bad news of the day, rest of the NFL. Brady won’t be starting the season with an MCL injury this time around, and his coaches are finally giving him what he needs schematically. It could mean that at age 44, and with all his 2020 receivers in the fold, Tom Brady could be even better than he was in 2020. Which would be a key part of the Buccaneers’ desire to “run it back.”